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Prospectus Hit List for September 24



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 21 Hit List for September 25
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Ten days to go, and 17 teams still have at least a thump in their playoff odds.

RkTmWL W1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

92

60

90.7

91.7

90.1

.600

.580

95.7%

4.3%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jayson Werth's decision to sign with the Nationals is looking less crazy nowadays. The Nationals' decision to sign Jayson Werth is still just as crazy.
2

83

70

88.1

88.1

89.7

.570

.590

0.1%

7.9%

8.0%

-2.3%

-8.7%

Don't look now but the Rays have won five in a row. Seriously though, don't look. If they see you watching Jeremy Hellickson will scurry under the couch and it'll be hours before he emerges.
3

90

62

88.0

92.8

91.4

.596

.615

93.5%

6.4%

99.9%

0.1%

0.0%

Where does Adrian Beltre change into his uniform? In a phone booth, of course.
4

88

64

86.8

87.5

88.4

.577

.596

76.5%

22.8%

99.4%

-0.3%

3.8%

Using Eduardo Nunez as a defensive replacement is like eating only cake, Cheetos, and candy bars because you're on a diet.
5

82

71

86.5

87.6

84.7

.557

.537

0.0%

84.1%

84.1%

-0.3%

6.9%

Things American League teams will never say: Kyle Lohse is 16-3 with a 2.77 ERA after last night's win. Thing a National League team is saying right now: Kyle Lohse is 16-3 with a 2.77 ERA after last night's win.
6

88

65

86.4

85.5

85.6

.564

.545

4.3%

95.7%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Down five games in the loss column with nine to go, the Braves finish up the season with three each against the Marlins, Mets, and in Pittsburgh. That there is a fighting chance.
7

92

61

86.2

83.8

80.9

.560

.540

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Unsurprisingly, Homer Bailey gave up two baileys.
8

84

69

85.0

87.1

88.8

.563

.583

0.2%

19.3%

19.4%

-0.4%

-13.7%

Jered Weaver is 19-4 with a 2.74 ERA and leads the American League in wins. He isn't in the conversation for Cy Young, though, because Mike Trout has it sewn up.
9

86

66

84.2

80.1

81.4

.546

.565

6.3%

75.2%

81.5%

7.5%

-7.6%

One day you'll tell your grandkids you saw Cliff Pennington play baseball. Then your grandkids will have to leave because the orderly is hooking you up to stronger medication.
10

89

64

83.9

81.8

80.3

.547

.528

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Giants gave Yusmeiro Petit his first start since 2009. In four innings he walked four and struck out one. "Traveled the whole world for three years," he said, "learning a new way to suck."
11

81

71

82.8

80.6

79.5

.533

.553

68.9%

0.0%

68.9%

19.1%

-0.7%

Adam Dunn: a one-act play: Adam Dunn walked home. (strike out) Then he ran home. (Strike out!) Then he stopped and struck a match. (STRIKE OUT!) It burned out. [curtain]
12

79

73

81.2

81.6

79.0

.528

.508

0.0%

9.6%

9.6%

1.2%

4.9%

The Brewers have to survive the next four in Washington and Cincinnati. If they can keep the deficit at 2 1/2 games they'll close the season with six at home against Houston and San Diego, and a reasonable shot at catching St. Louis.
13

77

75

81.1

81.2

80.3

.526

.506

0.0%

1.2%

1.2%

-0.5%

-0.7%

The Diamondbacks are the baseball team that best makes your butt fall asleep in your chair. Watch with extreme caution!
14

80

72

80.8

83.3

83.3

.538

.558

31.1%

0.1%

31.2%

-20.4%

-4.4%

Phil Coke faced two hitters in the sixth inning, gave up a run-scoring single and a walk, and was credited with a blown save. If you canít get your homework done well, at least get it done early.
15

79

74

77.7

76.1

76.8

.506

.486

0.0%

5.0%

5.0%

0.0%

-8.0%

Adrian Gonzalez homered twice, completely justifying the decision to add a quarter-billion dollars in future salaries.
16

77

76

77.3

79.0

78.5

.509

.489

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.4%

-0.2%

Since July 1, Cliff Lee hasn't walked two batters in any game. He has 106 strikeouts, and nine walks.
17

87

65

75.4

72.4

74.2

.508

.528

23.4%

68.3%

91.7%

-3.2%

31.2%

At this point, there's like a 6 percent chance that the Orioles will win the World Series. Can you even imagine?
18

75

77

74.2

74.8

72.5

.488

.468

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-2.9%

Now that they're back under .500, the Pirates can play well again. "Expectations are so so hard," said manager Clint Hurdle, shaking his head. "I don't like 'em. I don't like 'em at all."
19

69

85

73.6

76.2

76.4

.479

.499

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Why is Bobby Valentine still managing the team? Like in the movie Major League, he has a life-sized cut-out of John Henry and every time a member of the front office enters the clubhouse he removes a piece of clothing.
20

72

81

72.3

70.4

72.3

.469

.489

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Mariners batted John Jaso in the clean-up spot. Perhaps the strangest part is that it's a reasonable decision.
21

73

80

71.2

71.8

70.9

.469

.449

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Padres are glad they avoided getting swept by the Giants because [moderately believable reason].
22

70

82

71.1

66.7

66.5

.451

.471

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jake Odorizzi gave up three runs in 5 1/3 innings, but at that point the Royals were out of top prospects to bring in and the Indians scored 12 more runs. Should've drafted better!
23

69

83

69.2

73.3

75.4

.472

.452

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

After essentially saying his team quit on him, manager Terry Collins backtracked. "Of course they didn't quit," said an irritated Collins. "They just didn't play as hard as they could, because they were over it. Sheesh, guys. What's the big deal?"
24

66

85

69.1

65.2

67.0

.443

.462

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Blue Jays are 6-14 since September 1. If anyone is dumb enough to give up starting pitching for their manager Toronto should do it yesterday.
25

66

87

65.4

67.9

68.9

.438

.419

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If the Marlins had signed Albert Pujols last offseason, he'd be playing third base for the Dodgers right now.
26

64

89

64.7

67.3

67.1

.430

.450

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Not only did the Twins effectively play the spoiler role by sweeping a doubleheader from playoff-hopeful Detroit, but they put a dead bug in their brother's oatmeal and hid a bag of dirty cat litter in old Mr. Wilsonís glove compartment. Those rascally Twins!
27

58

94

63.7

60.4

60.3

.399

.380

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jeff Francis threw four innings in which he neither walked nor struck out a batter. In the fifth, Adam Ottavino came in and walked two while striking out the side.
28

59

94

63.3

59.6

60.1

.395

.376

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Quick! .263/.317/.504! Phew. I wanted you to see that before Alfonso Soriano's slugging falls below .500.
29

63

90

58.8

63.3

64.0

.407

.427

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

How good was the Indians offense last night? Every player in the lineup save three had multiple hits. Of those three, two had one hit and the last, catcher Lou Marson, had three walks.
30

50

103

54.0

54.1

54.2

.347

.329

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jose Altuve left with an injury. First they take your land. Then they take your women. Then they take your freedom. And finally they take your little adorable magic leprecauns.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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