Quantcast

Prospectus Hit List for September 21



by Ben Lindbergh

Hit List for September 20 Hit List for September 24
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

There sure is a lot to say about these teams, considering they are (on average) just a bunch of .500 clubs.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div% Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

86

64

84.5

83.3

83.4

.562

.542

2.8%

97.2%

100.0%

0.0%

0.2%

The Braves were off yesterday. Somehow, Kris Medlen still went seven scoreless.
2

80

70

84.7

85.4

82.8

.555

.535

0.0%

84.5%

84.5%

2.9%

4.4%

Look, the Cardinals aren’t proud of what they did, but nothing in the current CBA prohibits winning the wild card by beating up on the Astros.
3

85

64

82.8

79.1

80.0

.549

.568

6.9%

84.0%

90.8%

10.5%

2.3%

Brett Anderson is done for the rest of the regular season, but he wouldn’t rule out the possibility that he could return in time for the playoffs. He was last seen riding away on a silver stallion, saying something about the dawn of the fifth day.
4

85

64

73.4

70.6

72.4

.506

.526

22.6%

66.3%

88.9%

2.4%

28.6%

The Orioles will clinch a playoff spot at some point during their final 10 games against Boston and Toronto, two teams that helped sentence them to 14 consecutive losing seasons. Edmond Dantčs spent 14 years imprisoned in the Château d'If without scripting any revenge scenarios that satisfying.
5

86

63

85.2

85.7

86.4

.576

.595

77.3%

21.6%

98.8%

0.8%

5.6%

Ichiro’s OPS as a Yankee is .805, which is higher than it was in six of his 11 full seasons as a Mariner. What’s that? Park effects make this factoid misleading? Man, it’s too bad I can’t go back and edit these things.
6

81

69

82.5

84.7

86.2

.557

.577

0.0%

12.3%

12.3%

-11.9%

-20.0%

A roughly four in five chance that no Los Angeles team will play in the postseason, or the NFL.
7

77

72

79.7

80.0

77.3

.527

.507

0.0%

8.6%

8.6%

1.8%

6.2%

The Brewers scored nine runs despite going 4-for-18 with runners in scoring position. Their secret? Going 9-for-21 without runners in scoring position.
8

89

60

86.7

91.4

90.2

.600

.619

93.1%

6.9%

100.0%

0.0%

0.3%

Yu Darvish outdueled Zack Greinke to record his seventh straight quality start and sixth straight with no more than two walks. Since August 17th, he has a 1.84 ERA with 52 strikeouts and nine walks in 44 innings. This is what’s known in the industry as “rounding into form at the right time.”
9

80

70

84.4

84.5

86.2

.558

.578

0.1%

6.4%

6.5%

2.1%

-17.8%

A three-run walk-off by B.J. Upton capped a six-run rally and kept the Rays suspended in a state of semi-contention. Jose Molina went 0-for-2 with three frames.
10

77

73

76.4

75.4

75.7

.507

.487

0.0%

5.6%

5.6%

-3.4%

-4.4%

Missing the playoffs with a $200 million payroll would be embarrassing, but that's not what's going to happen to the Dodgers. Because the $200 million payroll is (already!) next year's.
11

91

58

89.3

90.3

88.5

.602

.583

97.2%

2.8%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

A few hours after the Reds became the first team to clinch a playoff spot, the Nationals became the second. Really original, guys.
12

79

70

79.2

81.8

82.0

.540

.560

27.0%

2.3%

29.3%

-4.9%

-26.5%

Remember when the Tigers were supposed to have a Thousand-Run Offense? That prediction proved to be about as accurate as the one about the “Thousand-Year Reich.”
13

74

75

78.2

78.4

78.1

.518

.498

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

-0.9%

-1.8%

Justin Upton has hit .313/.348/.594 in September, which could make the Diamondbacks either more or less inclined to trade him, depending on the day.
14

76

74

76.1

78.1

77.5

.513

.493

0.0%

0.6%

0.6%

0.2%

-0.9%

The Phillies a) scored 16 runs and b) were held scoreless by five different Mets pitchers, which is September baseball in a nutshell.
15

81

68

82.2

80.0

78.9

.540

.560

73.0%

0.3%

73.3%

1.0%

27.6%

Jeremy Guthrie is the White Sox’ worst nightmare. The Sox have lost four games against him since August 8th, scoring one run in 29 2/3 innings.
16

74

75

73.0

73.3

71.3

.489

.469

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.6%

-4.2%

The Pirates fell below .500. I’m too sad for Pittsburgh fans to say anything snarky.
17

66

82

69.6

65.6

67.5

.454

.474

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Former catcher and current Sportsnet analyst Gregg Zaun took a shot at Alex Anthopoulos, calling him “a sabermetrician, a bean counter.” Anthopoulos would have defended himself if he hadn’t been so busy counting the beans he saved the Blue Jays by trading Vernon Wells.
18

87

63

81.7

79.5

78.1

.544

.524

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.4%

When Pablo Sandoval is slumping, people say he’s out of shape. When he hits three home runs in two games, they call him big-boned.
19

70

80

70.5

68.8

70.5

.466

.486

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

After two straight extra-inning losses, the Mariners spent their off-day licking their wounds, until Justin Smoak politely informed them that he doesn’t like to be licked.
20

72

78

70.4

71.1

70.1

.473

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Padres’ first-half winning percentage:.391. Padres’ second-half winning percentage: .603. BBWAA bylaws require me to refer to the team as “streaking San Diego” until instructed otherwise.
21

68

83

72.5

75.0

75.3

.482

.502

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jose Iglesias hit his first major-league homer, despite Bobby Valentine’s attempt to pinch-run for him as he rounded third.
22

62

88

56.7

61.2

62.1

.403

.423

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

According to Pythagorus, the Indians are only five games better than Houston.
23

58

91

63.4

59.9

59.6

.404

.385

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In his return from Tommy John Surgery, Jorge de la Rosa allowed seven hits and six runs in 3 2/3 innings, striking out one and throwing three miles per hour slower than the last time we saw him. On the bright side, only five of the runs were earned.
24

48

102

52.4

52.6

52.8

.343

.325

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

From last night’s AP game story: “St. Louis has won four in a row, capitalizing on a break in the schedule.” “A break in the schedule” is what we’re calling the Astros now.
25

68

81

70.2

65.8

65.9

.453

.473

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The White Sox angered the baseball gods by intentionally walking Jeff Francoeur with first base open and two outs in the ninth. The baseball gods struck back three pitches later with an Eric Hosmer walk-off single.
26

66

84

64.6

67.3

68.3

.444

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jeffrey Loria is reportedly unhappy with the way the Marlins are run, and both president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest and manager Ozzie Guillen could be fired in the near future. Unfortunately, the team’s owner’s job appears to be safe.
27

58

92

62.1

58.8

59.2

.397

.378

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Starlin Castro has hit .330/.382/.500 since his contract extension was finalized. So much for the narrative that he’d become complacent once his financial future was assured. The real narrative is that he was blackmailing the Cubs by slugging under .500 until they agreed to give him more money.
28

62

88

63.3

65.8

65.5

.428

.447

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Twins starters have now struck out three batters or fewer in 93 games this year.
29

66

83

67.1

70.9

73.2

.465

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jeremy Hefner is the 67th pitcher to start a game, allow six earned runs or more, and not get an out. Good news is nobody will remember this about him. Bad news is nobody will remember him.
30

91

59

84.4

81.6

78.7

.560

.540

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

On the same day that the Reds clinched a playoff berth, .176 hitter Miguel Cairo made his 16th start at first base. You can’t say Cincinnati didn’t give the rest of the NL Central a fighting chance.

Ben Lindbergh is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Ben's other articles. You can contact Ben by clicking here


7 comments have been left for this article.
ShaneT

Sharp point about Suzuki's new run environment, so let's adjust for ballpark and recast that sentence. "Ichiro's OPS+ as a Yankee is 117 ... which is higher than it was in six of his 11 full seasons as a Mariner."

Oh.

Well, at least we still have small sample size to fall back on.

Sep 21, 2012 08:39 AM
up_image

+1

down_image
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh

Good point!

Sep 21, 2012 10:02 AM
up_image

0

down_image
 
dodgerdan

Dodgers will miss playoff despite the big payroll this year and it would be no surprise to me if they fail to reach next year, unless Bud Lite expands wild card to 3 teams in each league.

Sep 21, 2012 09:01 AM
up_image

0

down_image
 
Ric Size

"Jose Molina went 0-for-2 with three frames." Good one. A few other gems in there too, including the Angels, Blue Jays & Marlins. Amazing Twins stat, or was it irony? Nice overall effort.

Sep 21, 2012 09:11 AM
up_image

+3

down_image
 
CrashD

For this one line I forgive you for all your snarky comments about the Orioles this year. Thanks for the laughs!

Sep 21, 2012 09:18 AM
up_image

+2

down_image
 
TGisriel

For the Orioles to clinch a playoff spot against the Blue Jays or the Yankees, they will have to clinch before the season ending 3 game series against the Rays.

Sep 21, 2012 12:42 PM
up_image

+1

down_image
 
TGisriel

Oops I meants against the Blue Jays or the Red Sox.

Sep 21, 2012 12:43 PM
up_image

0

down_image
 
You must be a Premium subscriber or have a Fantasy subscription to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
What You Need to Know:... (09/21)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (09/20)
Next Column >>
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (09/24)
Next Article >>
Collateral Damage Dail... (09/21)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Pitching Backward: The Guy Who Makes Scherze...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Team Preview: Los Angeles Angels of ...
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Upton and Ubaldo in One Ugly ...
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Hank Aaron's Hypothetical Fo...
Premium Article Raising Aces: Free Agent Pitchers: The Top T...
Premium Article Moonshot: A New View of Plate Discipline, Pa...
Premium Article 2015 Prospects: Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Prosp...

MORE FROM SEPTEMBER 21, 2012 10:09 AM
Baseball Therapy: Wild-Card Game Theory
Raising Aces: Four of a Kind: High-K Closers
Weekly Planner: Week 26
Value Picks: Outfielders for 9/21/12
Collateral Damage Daily: Friday, September 2...
What You Need to Know: Friday, September 21
The BP Wayback Machine: Backing into the Pla...

MORE BY BEN LINDBERGH
2012-09-23 - BP Unfiltered: A Funny Thing Happened on the...
2012-09-22 - BP Unfiltered: An Update on Curtis Granderso...
2012-09-22 - BP Unfiltered: The Emotional Ups and Downs o...
2012-09-21 - The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, September 2...
2012-09-21 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 4...
2012-09-20 - Baseball Prospectus News: Introducing the BP...
2012-09-20 - Premium Article Overthinking It: No Ace, No Problem?
More...

MORE THE PROSPECTUS HIT LIST
2012-09-26 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, Septembe...
2012-09-25 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Tuesday, September ...
2012-09-24 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, September 2...
2012-09-21 - The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, September 2...
2012-09-20 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, September...
2012-09-19 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, Septembe...
2012-09-18 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Tuesday, September ...
More...