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Prospectus Hit List for September 21



by Ben Lindbergh

Hit List for September 20 Hit List for September 24
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

There sure is a lot to say about these teams, considering they are (on average) just a bunch of .500 clubs.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC% Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

91

58

89.3

90.3

88.5

.602

.583

97.2%

2.8%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

A few hours after the Reds became the first team to clinch a playoff spot, the Nationals became the second. Really original, guys.
2

91

59

84.4

81.6

78.7

.560

.540

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

On the same day that the Reds clinched a playoff berth, .176 hitter Miguel Cairo made his 16th start at first base. You can’t say Cincinnati didn’t give the rest of the NL Central a fighting chance.
3

87

63

81.7

79.5

78.1

.544

.524

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.4%

When Pablo Sandoval is slumping, people say he’s out of shape. When he hits three home runs in two games, they call him big-boned.
4

86

64

84.5

83.3

83.4

.562

.542

2.8%

97.2%

100.0%

0.0%

0.2%

The Braves were off yesterday. Somehow, Kris Medlen still went seven scoreless.
5

89

60

86.7

91.4

90.2

.600

.619

93.1%

6.9%

100.0%

0.0%

0.3%

Yu Darvish outdueled Zack Greinke to record his seventh straight quality start and sixth straight with no more than two walks. Since August 17th, he has a 1.84 ERA with 52 strikeouts and nine walks in 44 innings. This is what’s known in the industry as “rounding into form at the right time.”
6

86

63

85.2

85.7

86.4

.576

.595

77.3%

21.6%

98.8%

0.8%

5.6%

Ichiro’s OPS as a Yankee is .805, which is higher than it was in six of his 11 full seasons as a Mariner. What’s that? Park effects make this factoid misleading? Man, it’s too bad I can’t go back and edit these things.
7

85

64

82.8

79.1

80.0

.549

.568

6.9%

84.0%

90.8%

10.5%

2.3%

Brett Anderson is done for the rest of the regular season, but he wouldn’t rule out the possibility that he could return in time for the playoffs. He was last seen riding away on a silver stallion, saying something about the dawn of the fifth day.
8

85

64

73.4

70.6

72.4

.506

.526

22.6%

66.3%

88.9%

2.4%

28.6%

The Orioles will clinch a playoff spot at some point during their final 10 games against Boston and Toronto, two teams that helped sentence them to 14 consecutive losing seasons. Edmond Dantčs spent 14 years imprisoned in the Château d'If without scripting any revenge scenarios that satisfying.
9

80

70

84.7

85.4

82.8

.555

.535

0.0%

84.5%

84.5%

2.9%

4.4%

Look, the Cardinals aren’t proud of what they did, but nothing in the current CBA prohibits winning the wild card by beating up on the Astros.
10

81

68

82.2

80.0

78.9

.540

.560

73.0%

0.3%

73.3%

1.0%

27.6%

Jeremy Guthrie is the White Sox’ worst nightmare. The Sox have lost four games against him since August 8th, scoring one run in 29 2/3 innings.
11

79

70

79.2

81.8

82.0

.540

.560

27.0%

2.3%

29.3%

-4.9%

-26.5%

Remember when the Tigers were supposed to have a Thousand-Run Offense? That prediction proved to be about as accurate as the one about the “Thousand-Year Reich.”
12

81

69

82.5

84.7

86.2

.557

.577

0.0%

12.3%

12.3%

-11.9%

-20.0%

A roughly four in five chance that no Los Angeles team will play in the postseason, or the NFL.
13

77

72

79.7

80.0

77.3

.527

.507

0.0%

8.6%

8.6%

1.8%

6.2%

The Brewers scored nine runs despite going 4-for-18 with runners in scoring position. Their secret? Going 9-for-21 without runners in scoring position.
14

80

70

84.4

84.5

86.2

.558

.578

0.1%

6.4%

6.5%

2.1%

-17.8%

A three-run walk-off by B.J. Upton capped a six-run rally and kept the Rays suspended in a state of semi-contention. Jose Molina went 0-for-2 with three frames.
15

77

73

76.4

75.4

75.7

.507

.487

0.0%

5.6%

5.6%

-3.4%

-4.4%

Missing the playoffs with a $200 million payroll would be embarrassing, but that's not what's going to happen to the Dodgers. Because the $200 million payroll is (already!) next year's.
16

74

75

78.2

78.4

78.1

.518

.498

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

-0.9%

-1.8%

Justin Upton has hit .313/.348/.594 in September, which could make the Diamondbacks either more or less inclined to trade him, depending on the day.
17

76

74

76.1

78.1

77.5

.513

.493

0.0%

0.6%

0.6%

0.2%

-0.9%

The Phillies a) scored 16 runs and b) were held scoreless by five different Mets pitchers, which is September baseball in a nutshell.
18

74

75

73.0

73.3

71.3

.489

.469

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.6%

-4.2%

The Pirates fell below .500. I’m too sad for Pittsburgh fans to say anything snarky.
19

66

83

67.1

70.9

73.2

.465

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jeremy Hefner is the 67th pitcher to start a game, allow six earned runs or more, and not get an out. Good news is nobody will remember this about him. Bad news is nobody will remember him.
20

66

82

69.6

65.6

67.5

.454

.474

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Former catcher and current Sportsnet analyst Gregg Zaun took a shot at Alex Anthopoulos, calling him “a sabermetrician, a bean counter.” Anthopoulos would have defended himself if he hadn’t been so busy counting the beans he saved the Blue Jays by trading Vernon Wells.
21

66

84

64.6

67.3

68.3

.444

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jeffrey Loria is reportedly unhappy with the way the Marlins are run, and both president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest and manager Ozzie Guillen could be fired in the near future. Unfortunately, the team’s owner’s job appears to be safe.
22

48

102

52.4

52.6

52.8

.343

.325

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

From last night’s AP game story: “St. Louis has won four in a row, capitalizing on a break in the schedule.” “A break in the schedule” is what we’re calling the Astros now.
23

68

83

72.5

75.0

75.3

.482

.502

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jose Iglesias hit his first major-league homer, despite Bobby Valentine’s attempt to pinch-run for him as he rounded third.
24

58

92

62.1

58.8

59.2

.397

.378

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Starlin Castro has hit .330/.382/.500 since his contract extension was finalized. So much for the narrative that he’d become complacent once his financial future was assured. The real narrative is that he was blackmailing the Cubs by slugging under .500 until they agreed to give him more money.
25

70

80

70.5

68.8

70.5

.466

.486

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

After two straight extra-inning losses, the Mariners spent their off-day licking their wounds, until Justin Smoak politely informed them that he doesn’t like to be licked.
26

72

78

70.4

71.1

70.1

.473

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Padres’ first-half winning percentage:.391. Padres’ second-half winning percentage: .603. BBWAA bylaws require me to refer to the team as “streaking San Diego” until instructed otherwise.
27

62

88

63.3

65.8

65.5

.428

.447

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Twins starters have now struck out three batters or fewer in 93 games this year.
28

58

91

63.4

59.9

59.6

.404

.385

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In his return from Tommy John Surgery, Jorge de la Rosa allowed seven hits and six runs in 3 2/3 innings, striking out one and throwing three miles per hour slower than the last time we saw him. On the bright side, only five of the runs were earned.
29

62

88

56.7

61.2

62.1

.403

.423

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

According to Pythagorus, the Indians are only five games better than Houston.
30

68

81

70.2

65.8

65.9

.453

.473

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The White Sox angered the baseball gods by intentionally walking Jeff Francoeur with first base open and two outs in the ninth. The baseball gods struck back three pitches later with an Eric Hosmer walk-off single.