Quantcast

Prospectus Hit List for September 18



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 17 Hit List for September 19
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Orioles' playoff odds: 73.7 percent. This is not a drill, people.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div% Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

60

87

61.6

63.9

63.8

.424

.444

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins are two games out of the second pick in the draft. Because you gotta have goals.
2

71

76

69.3

69.8

68.8

.474

.455

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Poor Padres. Having to play in Petco Park is like playing on a 120-yard football field, or having your goal in hockey shrunk by a foot.
3

65

83

63.8

66.4

67.3

.444

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I'm already looking forward to the firesale the Marlins will have to hold next July after they sign Josh Hamilton.
4

70

78

70.0

67.4

69.1

.467

.487

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Mariners have 14 games to catch the A's, currently .003 points ahead, or else they'll suffer the enduring indignity of finishing last in team batting average.
5

66

80

68.4

65.0

64.9

.453

.473

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

How bad has the Royals' starting staff been? Their top two pitchers by PWARP are relievers.
6

48

99

51.9

51.8

51.8

.346

.328

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

"You may be last in baseball in run scoring, but you're only third-to-last in run prevention. And you're very handsome." -- Astros' Grandma
7

66

81

67.8

70.9

73.0

.472

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In two seasons with the Red Sox Jason bay posted a .534 slugging percentage. This season with the Mets, Bay has a .520 OPS.
8

58

88

63.4

59.8

59.7

.413

.393

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

At this point the entire Rockies organization is a traffic cone on the side of the highway that is the National League West.
9

61

86

55.4

60.1

61.2

.404

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

About 20 years ago, the Indians' old stadium was pushed into Lake Erie to form a reef for fish. If the Indians want to continue the tradition with this stadium and team I don't know that they'd get much argument from the fans.
10

88

59

82.3

80.1

77.4

.557

.538

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If Joey Votto's .467 on-base percentage remains the leader in baseball it would mark the third consecutive season he's led baseball in that category.
11

58

89

61.2

57.4

57.6

.398

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It is very hard to win a baseball game with just two hits, but the Cubs... well, no, actually. They didn't.
12

67

81

72.1

74.5

74.7

.487

.507

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Red Sox play Baltimore six times over their last 14 games so if you're the jealous, angry vengeful type and want to get back at those poor deprived souls in Maryland for the destruction they inflicted upon your team last September, this would be your chance.
13

66

79

68.7

64.4

66.1

.457

.477

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Colby Rasmus's stance has got so open it has closed. Standing with his back to the pitcher could be contributing to his recent struggles at the plate.
14

84

63

78.5

76.4

75.3

.534

.514

99.7%

0.2%

99.8%

-0.1%

2.3%

Tim Lincecum's strikeout rate and walk rate have both almost doubled in September compared to August. What does this mean? Small samples can be weird.
15

74

74

73.3

76.1

75.7

.505

.485

0.0%

0.6%

0.6%

0.3%

0.1%

Cliff Lee struck out 10 against one walk while allowing a single run in eight innings. When the Phillies gave him a gajillion dollars this is probably what they had in mind. Now they're just three and a half out of a Wild Card spot.
16

80

66

80.9

77.7

76.8

.540

.560

81.6%

0.7%

82.3%

12.8%

9.8%

Gordon Beckham enjoyed his third two-walk game of the season last night. For a man with 35 walks in 535 plate appearances, that's called bunching.
17

72

74

76.2

76.7

76.5

.516

.496

0.0%

1.6%

1.6%

-0.2%

0.7%

The Diamondbacks have a better run differential than... well, nobody very good. Never mind.
18

77

69

77.1

79.3

79.5

.536

.556

18.4%

3.2%

21.6%

-13.9%

-7.5%

Delmon Young clutchy clutch clutch clutch but .728 OPS from DH spot but clutchy clutch.
19

74

72

72.6

73.2

70.9

.498

.478

0.0%

3.6%

3.6%

0.8%

-2.8%

The Pirates have been caught stealing the second most in all of baseball. The Pirates are not very good pirates.
20

89

57

87.3

88.6

86.9

.602

.583

96.4%

3.6%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

"The Nationals? Does RG3 play for them?"
21

74

72

77.2

77.3

74.5

.519

.499

0.0%

4.4%

4.4%

-0.3%

3.7%

The Brewers lead baseball in both sacrifice bunts and getting hit by the pitch. There must be a connection there somewhere.
22

78

69

81.7

82.0

83.7

.553

.573

0.2%

7.0%

7.2%

-9.1%

-52.0%

I know it looked like the Rays didn't want to hit, but it wasn't that. It was that they couldn't.
23

87

59

85.4

89.7

88.3

.600

.619

88.6%

11.3%

99.9%

0.0%

0.0%

Adrian Beltre over the last month: .396/.437/.948 with 14 homers.
24

76

71

75.4

74.0

74.1

.509

.489

0.3%

13.8%

14.1%

0.5%

-8.3%

An eight-game deficit behind the Giants with 15 games to go. That sounds insurmountable. Unless the Dodgers can find a way to add $250 million in payroll by the end of the week it probably is.
25

83

63

83.1

83.9

84.8

.573

.593

77.7%

18.5%

96.2%

0.7%

7.6%

The Yankees are three games under .500 against the Orioles, White Sox, A's, and Texas, the other four playoff teams if the season ended today.
26

80

67

80.8

83.3

84.6

.559

.579

0.4%

28.8%

29.2%

-4.3%

-16.9%

The Angels lead baseball in homers hit on the road. Probably the awful weather in Southern California.
27

83

64

72.0

70.0

72.0

.505

.525

22.1%

51.6%

73.7%

12.9%

44.8%

If the Orioles can beat Seattle 14-0 today, a feat that wouldn't be out of line considering last night's 10-4 win, they'd finally reach the all-important even run differential. Playoffs-schmlayoffs.
28

77

70

82.2

83.1

81.0

.550

.530

0.0%

75.8%

75.8%

-0.9%

3.8%

The Cardinals have a bipolar schedule remaining. Their next nine games are against Houston and the Cubs. Their last six are against Washington and Cincinnati. Best take care of business now.
29

84

62

82.1

78.7

79.5

.555

.575

11.0%

78.9%

89.9%

0.9%

14.1%

The A's were off yesterday so A.J. Griffin didn't have the opportunity to walk anyone. Not that he would have taken you up on it anyway.
30

85

63

83.3

82.1

82.3

.562

.542

3.6%

96.4%

100.0%

0.0%

0.5%

Dan Uggla went 2-for-3 with a walk and a home run. This is remarkable because Uggla had a good game and because they let Uggla anywhere near the batter's box.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
Ric Size

Terrific comments, particularly on the Marlins & Astros among others.

Sep 18, 2012 09:45 AM
up_image

+4

down_image
 
BP staff member Matt Kory

Thanks!

Sep 18, 2012 09:58 AM
up_image

0

down_image
 
TimLandry

The creativity in this column is INCREDIBLE. If I had to choose ONE item to read each day for the rest of my life, this would be it. It is funny and informative - I cannot imagine better writing. Matt - thank YOU!

Sep 18, 2012 13:05 PM
up_image

+1

down_image
 
BP staff member Matt Kory

Thanks!

Sep 18, 2012 14:29 PM
up_image

0

down_image
 
Sorry, fantasy subscribers cannot comment on exclusive premium content.
<< Previous Article
What You Need to Know:... (09/18)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (09/17)
Next Column >>
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (09/19)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Collateral Damage Dail... (09/18)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Cueto's Quirks
Premium Article Moonshot: Detecting the Best Medicine
Fantasy Article Interleague Report: Week 26
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: DFS and the State of Fant...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: September 22, 2014
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Circling Back to The Holy...
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: The Season's Most D...

MORE FROM SEPTEMBER 18, 2012 09:09 AM
Baseball ProGUESTus: The Agony of Rational R...
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Whoops, I W...
Premium Article Baseball Therapy: Reading Lolita in Teheran,...
Premium Article Painting the Black: Vogelsong (Remix)
Out of Left Field: The Slowest Pitches Throw...
Premium Article Collateral Damage Daily: Tuesday, September ...
What You Need to Know: Tuesday, September 18

MORE BY MATTHEW KORY
2012-09-24 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, September 2...
2012-09-19 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, Septembe...
2012-09-18 - Out of Left Field: The Slowest Pitches Throw...
2012-09-18 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Tuesday, September ...
2012-09-17 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, September 1...
2012-09-14 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, September 1...
2012-09-13 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, September...
More...

MORE THE PROSPECTUS HIT LIST
2012-09-21 - The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, September 2...
2012-09-20 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, September...
2012-09-19 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, Septembe...
2012-09-18 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Tuesday, September ...
2012-09-17 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, September 1...
2012-09-14 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, September 1...
2012-09-13 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, September...
More...