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Prospectus Hit List for September 18



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 17 Hit List for September 19
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Orioles' playoff odds: 73.7 percent. This is not a drill, people.

RkTm WLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

89

57

87.3

88.6

86.9

.602

.583

96.4%

3.6%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

"The Nationals? Does RG3 play for them?"
2

88

59

82.3

80.1

77.4

.557

.538

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If Joey Votto's .467 on-base percentage remains the leader in baseball it would mark the third consecutive season he's led baseball in that category.
3

87

59

85.4

89.7

88.3

.600

.619

88.6%

11.3%

99.9%

0.0%

0.0%

Adrian Beltre over the last month: .396/.437/.948 with 14 homers.
4

85

63

83.3

82.1

82.3

.562

.542

3.6%

96.4%

100.0%

0.0%

0.5%

Dan Uggla went 2-for-3 with a walk and a home run. This is remarkable because Uggla had a good game and because they let Uggla anywhere near the batter's box.
5

84

63

78.5

76.4

75.3

.534

.514

99.7%

0.2%

99.8%

-0.1%

2.3%

Tim Lincecum's strikeout rate and walk rate have both almost doubled in September compared to August. What does this mean? Small samples can be weird.
6

84

62

82.1

78.7

79.5

.555

.575

11.0%

78.9%

89.9%

0.9%

14.1%

The A's were off yesterday so A.J. Griffin didn't have the opportunity to walk anyone. Not that he would have taken you up on it anyway.
7

83

64

72.0

70.0

72.0

.505

.525

22.1%

51.6%

73.7%

12.9%

44.8%

If the Orioles can beat Seattle 14-0 today, a feat that wouldn't be out of line considering last night's 10-4 win, they'd finally reach the all-important even run differential. Playoffs-schmlayoffs.
8

83

63

83.1

83.9

84.8

.573

.593

77.7%

18.5%

96.2%

0.7%

7.6%

The Yankees are three games under .500 against the Orioles, White Sox, A's, and Texas, the other four playoff teams if the season ended today.
9

80

67

80.8

83.3

84.6

.559

.579

0.4%

28.8%

29.2%

-4.3%

-16.9%

The Angels lead baseball in homers hit on the road. Probably the awful weather in Southern California.
10

80

66

80.9

77.7

76.8

.540

.560

81.6%

0.7%

82.3%

12.8%

9.8%

Gordon Beckham enjoyed his third two-walk game of the season last night. For a man with 35 walks in 535 plate appearances, that's called bunching.
11

78

69

81.7

82.0

83.7

.553

.573

0.2%

7.0%

7.2%

-9.1%

-52.0%

I know it looked like the Rays didn't want to hit, but it wasn't that. It was that they couldn't.
12

77

69

77.1

79.3

79.5

.536

.556

18.4%

3.2%

21.6%

-13.9%

-7.5%

Delmon Young clutchy clutch clutch clutch but .728 OPS from DH spot but clutchy clutch.
13

77

70

82.2

83.1

81.0

.550

.530

0.0%

75.8%

75.8%

-0.9%

3.8%

The Cardinals have a bipolar schedule remaining. Their next nine games are against Houston and the Cubs. Their last six are against Washington and Cincinnati. Best take care of business now.
14

76

71

75.4

74.0

74.1

.509

.489

0.3%

13.8%

14.1%

0.5%

-8.3%

An eight-game deficit behind the Giants with 15 games to go. That sounds insurmountable. Unless the Dodgers can find a way to add $250 million in payroll by the end of the week it probably is.
15

74

72

72.6

73.2

70.9

.498

.478

0.0%

3.6%

3.6%

0.8%

-2.8%

The Pirates have been caught stealing the second most in all of baseball. The Pirates are not very good pirates.
16

74

74

73.3

76.1

75.7

.505

.485

0.0%

0.6%

0.6%

0.3%

0.1%

Cliff Lee struck out 10 against one walk while allowing a single run in eight innings. When the Phillies gave him a gajillion dollars this is probably what they had in mind. Now they're just three and a half out of a Wild Card spot.
17

74

72

77.2

77.3

74.5

.519

.499

0.0%

4.4%

4.4%

-0.3%

3.7%

The Brewers lead baseball in both sacrifice bunts and getting hit by the pitch. There must be a connection there somewhere.
18

72

74

76.2

76.7

76.5

.516

.496

0.0%

1.6%

1.6%

-0.2%

0.7%

The Diamondbacks have a better run differential than... well, nobody very good. Never mind.
19

71

76

69.3

69.8

68.8

.474

.455

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Poor Padres. Having to play in Petco Park is like playing on a 120-yard football field, or having your goal in hockey shrunk by a foot.
20

70

78

70.0

67.4

69.1

.467

.487

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Mariners have 14 games to catch the A's, currently .003 points ahead, or else they'll suffer the enduring indignity of finishing last in team batting average.
21

67

81

72.1

74.5

74.7

.487

.507

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Red Sox play Baltimore six times over their last 14 games so if you're the jealous, angry vengeful type and want to get back at those poor deprived souls in Maryland for the destruction they inflicted upon your team last September, this would be your chance.
22

66

81

67.8

70.9

73.0

.472

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In two seasons with the Red Sox Jason bay posted a .534 slugging percentage. This season with the Mets, Bay has a .520 OPS.
23

66

79

68.7

64.4

66.1

.457

.477

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Colby Rasmus's stance has got so open it has closed. Standing with his back to the pitcher could be contributing to his recent struggles at the plate.
24

66

80

68.4

65.0

64.9

.453

.473

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

How bad has the Royals' starting staff been? Their top two pitchers by PWARP are relievers.
25

65

83

63.8

66.4

67.3

.444

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I'm already looking forward to the firesale the Marlins will have to hold next July after they sign Josh Hamilton.
26

61

86

55.4

60.1

61.2

.404

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

About 20 years ago, the Indians' old stadium was pushed into Lake Erie to form a reef for fish. If the Indians want to continue the tradition with this stadium and team I don't know that they'd get much argument from the fans.
27

60

87

61.6

63.9

63.8

.424

.444

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins are two games out of the second pick in the draft. Because you gotta have goals.
28

58

89

61.2

57.4

57.6

.398

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It is very hard to win a baseball game with just two hits, but the Cubs... well, no, actually. They didn't.
29

58

88

63.4

59.8

59.7

.413

.393

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

At this point the entire Rockies organization is a traffic cone on the side of the highway that is the National League West.
30

48

99

51.9

51.8

51.8

.346

.328

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

"You may be last in baseball in run scoring, but you're only third-to-last in run prevention. And you're very handsome." -- Astros' Grandma

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
Ric Size

Terrific comments, particularly on the Marlins & Astros among others.

Sep 18, 2012 09:45 AM
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+4

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Thanks!

Sep 18, 2012 09:58 AM
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TimLandry

The creativity in this column is INCREDIBLE. If I had to choose ONE item to read each day for the rest of my life, this would be it. It is funny and informative - I cannot imagine better writing. Matt - thank YOU!

Sep 18, 2012 13:05 PM
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+1

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Thanks!

Sep 18, 2012 14:29 PM
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