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Prospectus Hit List for September 17



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 14 Hit List for September 18
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Sometimes you're behind; sometimes you're ahead. The race is long and in the end it's only with yourself. (And the other teams in your league.)

RkTmWL W1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

89

57

87.3

88.6

86.9

.602

.583

97.2%

2.8%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Nationals are the third-highest scoring team in the National League, have allowed the fewest runs in baseball, and are the only team with a .600 winning percentage. Maybe they can get by with Stephen Strasburg after all.
2

87

59

85.4

89.7

88.3

.600

.619

87.5%

12.3%

99.8%

0.0%

0.0%

Adrian Beltre's career: good signing, bad signing, good signing, great signing!
3

83

63

83.1

83.9

84.9

.573

.593

82.0%

13.5%

95.4%

1.3%

6.8%

Eduardo Nunez became the first player to score two runs without getting a hit since 1973. OK, I made that up, but still, impressive right?
4

84

63

82.6

81.9

82.1

.562

.543

2.8%

97.2%

100.0%

0.1%

0.4%

Mike Minor outpitched Gio Gonzalez, which brings the Braves to 5 1/2 games back of Washington with 15 to go. That's also the last time the two will meet... [scary music] in the regular season! AH HA HA HA!
5

88

59

82.3

80.1

77.4

.557

.538

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Since returning from injury, Joey Votto has an almost-.500 on-base percentage, but a sub.400 slugging percentage. It's like when you lose your sense of sight and your sense of smell gets stronger.
6

77

70

82.2

83.1

81.0

.550

.530

0.0%

76.7%

76.7%

13.6%

-1.2%

When the Cardinals used to have the best offense they weren't in a potential playoff spot. Now they don't have the best offense and they are in a potential playoff spot. Coincidence? YES!
7

84

62

82.1

78.7

79.5

.555

.575

11.9%

77.6%

89.5%

-5.4%

22.3%

Josh Reddick since the All Star break: .226/.262/.391. Josh Reddick's mullet since the All Star break: .awesome/.awesomer/.awesomest
8

78

68

81.5

82.0

83.7

.557

.576

1.0%

16.1%

17.1%

-9.5%

-40.3%

With 16 games left and a four-game deficit in the Wild Card, the Rays are going to need someone to fall grotesquely apart again. Sadly the Red Sox arrived collapsed at the start of the season so Tampa will have to look elsewhere.
9

80

67

80.8

83.3

84.6

.559

.579

0.6%

32.8%

33.4%

4.3%

-26.1%

Mark Trumbo broke out of a months-long slump with a second-inning homer, after which he immediately went back into a slump, striking out his next three times.
10

79

66

80.3

76.9

75.9

.538

.558

68.0%

1.4%

69.4%

14.4%

10.0%

Adam Dunn homer strikeout walk ha ha strikeout ha Adam Dunn.
11

83

63

77.9

75.8

74.7

.533

.513

99.8%

0.1%

99.9%

0.1%

1.3%

Ryan Vogelsong's ERA by month: 4.19, 1.51, 2.02, 2.18, 6.32, 12.34.
12

74

72

77.2

77.3

74.5

.519

.499

0.0%

4.7%

4.7%

0.6%

4.3%

The Brewers are undefeated when Ryan Braun hits two or more home runs. They are also undefeated when not allowing a run. When both happen, they're 4-3.
13

77

68

76.7

79.2

79.3

.538

.558

32.0%

3.5%

35.5%

-15.8%

-6.5%

It is true that Jose Valverde has a different dance he does after blowing a save, but to his credit it's smaller and more understated.
14

72

74

76.2

76.7

76.5

.516

.496

0.0%

2.0%

2.0%

0.3%

1.2%

Countdown to possibly trading Justin Upton again: 16 days.
15

76

71

75.4

74.0

74.1

.509

.489

0.2%

13.0%

13.2%

-11.9%

-3.7%

Red Sox cast off Stephen Fiffe had nine strikeouts and only two runs allowed in five innings. The Dodgers lost anyway, but still, wow.
16

73

74

72.6

75.5

75.0

.504

.484

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

-0.6%

0.1%

Losing three of four to the Astros is like getting beat in a game of h-o-r-s-e by your great-grandmother in her wheelchair.
17

73

72

71.7

72.3

70.1

.495

.475

0.0%

3.1%

3.1%

-2.2%

-2.4%

There was a time earlier this season when if a Pirates player hit two home runs the Pirates would be virtually assured of winning by at least two runs. That time is not now.
18

66

81

71.3

73.5

73.7

.484

.504

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Bobby Valentine pulled Jose Iglesias for a pinch hitter with a 2-2 count. That's just weird. You don't see Ben Lindbergh pull me in the middle of a
19

82

64

70.9

69.2

71.1

.502

.522

17.0%

42.8%

59.8%

10.6%

33.8%

Beating Oakland assured the Orioles of their first winning season since 1997. That year Davey Johnson was the manager, Roberto Alomar posted an OPS+ of 134 and three starters threw over 210 innings.
20

70

77

70.1

67.2

69.0

.470

.490

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

You could criticize the Mariners for putting Dustin Ackley and his .300 on-base percentage in the leadoff spot, but Seattle is 17 1/2 games back with 15 games to go so that ship has probably sailed.
21

71

76

69.3

69.8

68.8

.474

.455

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies brought some Coors Field with them to Petco Park in San Diego, when the final score was 12-11. It's the most runs scored at Petco this year, beating the 17 scored on May 4, though that game took 12 innings.
22

66

79

68.7

64.4

66.1

.457

.477

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Thanks to yesterday's win, the Blue Jays are now a game back of Boston for the seventh pick in the draft. That's not going to cut it. You're going to have to do worse, boys.
23

66

80

68.4

65.0

64.9

.453

.473

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Now if I was to tell you the Royals lost, would you believe me? Ha ha! No, I'm just kidding. Of course they won. Sure they did. Absolutely. Have a great day, now!
24

66

80

67.6

70.6

72.7

.474

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

David Wright before the All Star break: .351/.441/.563. David Wright after the All Star break: .256/.339/.395.
25

65

82

63.5

65.6

66.5

.443

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

About the only thing that could make the idea of trading a player for a manager any sillier is firing that manager one year after the trade. Oh! That's your cue! Marlins you're on!
26

58

87

63.0

59.5

59.3

.413

.394

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jason Giambi is slugging .314 and will be 42 years old next season. These last 17 games could be it for him.
27

60

87

61.6

63.9

63.8

.424

.444

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Don't worry, Minnesotans. Soon this season will be over, and you can go back to being snowed into depressing lousy apartment all winter.
28

58

88

61.0

57.4

57.5

.401

.381

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It's possible that the best player in the Adrian Gonzalez trade will turn out to be Anthony Rizzo.
29

61

86

55.4

60.1

61.2

.404

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The positive view: Ubaldo Jimenez wasn't execrable and the Indians won a meaningless game that will hurt their draft position and force them to... oh, sorry. Force of habit.
30

48

99

51.9

51.8

51.8

.346

.328

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The odds of the Astros winning the next 15 and avoiding 100 losses are 5.22656421e-8, so we're going to have to cheer really hard you guys.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
jedjethro

An extra like for the laugh from the Phillies comment.

Sep 17, 2012 07:45 AM
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+1

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fawcettb

this would be better if someone proof-read it. Really.

Sep 17, 2012 16:45 PM
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