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Prospectus Hit List for September 14



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 13 Hit List for September 17
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Dodgers, you guys.

RkTmWLW1 W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

89

54

86.4

88.0

86.1

.611

.592

99.8%

0.2%

100.0%

0.1%

0.8%

One of the side effects of the Strasburg Shutdown is, because this is Washington, the coming proliferation of bad political 'shutdown' jokes we'll all be forced to endure. Next time before Mike Rizzo makes a decision he should consult with politically weary lousy on-line pseudo-comedians/baseball writers first.
2

85

58

83.4

87.4

86.2

.598

.617

87.8%

12.1%

99.8%

4.1%

2.3%

Joe Nathan had given up five homers in 57 1/3 innings. Two homers and a loss later he's given up seven in the same innings total.
3

81

62

81.4

81.9

82.8

.572

.591

74.4%

19.2%

93.6%

14.2%

17.2%

After missing two and a half months, Andy Pettitte will start Tuesday in New York. That means the Yankees have three days for a starter to get injured.
4

76

68

80.8

81.7

79.5

.552

.532

0.0%

79.3%

79.3%

52.1%

48.8%

Manager Mike Matheny moved slumping Carlos Beltran down in the lineup, and Beltran responded by going 2-for-2 with two walks and by throwing Josh Beckett out at first base on a clean single to right. Tomorrow, expecting even better results, Beltran will not be in the lineup.
5

78

66

79.1

81.5

83.0

.558

.578

0.7%

29.6%

30.4%

20.3%

11.2%

Torii Hunter homered and doubled or, as the kids are saying, Trouted.
6

77

66

80.3

80.9

82.4

.560

.580

3.6%

20.6%

24.2%

-2.5%

-6.7%

After getting swept by Baltimore the Rays are 6-9 against them this season. They've outscored them too, of course.
7

81

63

80.4

79.4

79.4

.556

.536

0.2%

99.2%

99.4%

59.7%

61.1%

If the Braves win one of their final three games against Miami, they'll be 10-5 against every National League East team this season except the Nationals. They're 5-10 against them.
8

87

57

81.4

79.3

76.8

.563

.544

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.2%

0.6%

Aroldis Champman Update: 119 strikeouts in 67 2/3 innings.
9

82

61

80.6

77.5

78.4

.557

.577

11.5%

76.6%

88.1%

47.5%

67.9%

First Brandon McCarthy, now Yoenis Cespedes gets injured. Blame this on the Orioles, who are sucking up all the good luck.
10

75

67

74.6

77.2

77.5

.536

.556

50.1%

0.6%

50.7%

-10.1%

5.8%

They say when Justin Verlander pitches the heavens cry in happiness. Someone needs to get the heavens a tissue.
11

72

71

75.5

75.2

72.4

.516

.496

0.0%

3.0%

3.0%

1.7%

3.0%

They say hot teams don't want off days, so if that's true then the Brewers are sitting by the pool sipping champagne and swearing up a storm.
12

81

62

76.7

75.1

73.8

.536

.516

98.9%

0.6%

99.6%

0.3%

7.7%

Buster Posey, a catcher, is hitting .333/.408/.542. That's like a '84 Caravan doing 0-to-60 in 3.9 seconds.
13

71

72

74.4

74.4

74.2

.514

.494

0.4%

2.8%

3.1%

1.1%

2.6%

Will Justin Upton go out big to salvage a decent season, or not give a crud and just whatever? Still TBD, but he's hitting .214/.250/.339 in the past two weeks of games.
14

76

66

77.3

73.7

73.0

.528

.548

49.9%

0.8%

50.7%

10.2%

-9.9%

Unable to strike out on company time due to the rainout, Adam Dunn went home, stood in front of the bathroom mirror with his toothbrush, waited for a suitable amount of time and then turned and trudged slowly back to the bedroom.
15

72

72

71.1

73.7

73.6

.504

.484

0.0%

1.0%

1.0%

-0.2%

1.0%

So much for the Phillies winning 26 in a row to close out the season. 25-1 will have to do!
16

74

70

73.8

72.4

72.2

.508

.488

0.7%

9.2%

9.9%

2.7%

-2.6%

The Dodgers record since the Mega-Trade is 4-1,000,000. Adrian Gonzalez is hitless. Josh Beckett hasn't retired a batter, Carl Crawford doesn't exist, and Nick Punto roams the clubhouse feasting on brains.
17

64

80

69.9

71.9

72.1

.483

.503

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Try as they might, the Red Sox weren't able to beat the team with the highest payroll in baseball with a lineup that looks like it was bought on lay-away at Dollar General.
18

72

70

70.9

70.9

69.0

.498

.478

0.0%

4.6%

4.6%

2.4%

-3.0%

Good news: the Pirates didn't play so they couldn't lose. Thanks, schedule!
19

65

78

66.3

69.7

71.7

.477

.457

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Mets catchers have hit .227/.289/.294 this season. Adding a joke here just seems rude.
20

69

75

67.9

68.1

67.2

.473

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Padres have a .713 road OPS. A .697 OPS is average, so it is possible (likely?) that a below-average run-scoring team is above-average offensively.
21

81

62

69.4

67.4

69.3

.502

.522

22.0%

40.5%

62.4%

36.1%

32.2%

Little-known fact: the Orioles are 0-7 in the one-run games that they lose.
22

69

75

69.2

66.7

68.0

.474

.494

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ten hits and seven runs, all in four innings. Sounds like someone replaced Felix Hernandez with the generic brand to see if anyone noticed. (We did.)
23

60

84

61.6

64.0

63.7

.433

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins came back and beat Kansas City in 10 innings. Yay, says fan.
24

65

78

67.1

63.8

63.5

.454

.474

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The difference between Alex Gordon last year (.303/.376/.502) and this year (.292/.360/.447) is about 10 homers. Where did those homers go? Are they behind the dresser? Between the couch cushions?
25

63

81

61.5

63.4

64.2

.438

.418

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jacob Turner's 21 strikeouts and eight walks in 29 innings belie his 6.44 ERA. The eight home runs he's given up don't though.
26

65

77

67.1

63.0

64.7

.458

.477

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Your American League home run leader is Edwin Encarnacion with 40 wake up wake up it's time for school!
27

60

84

54.4

59.1

60.1

.405

.425

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Matt LaPorta's first homer since last August 18th. Oh how the not-ever-actually-mighty have fallen.
28

57

85

61.4

58.1

58.0

.413

.394

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It will be interesting to see if we hear any Troy Tulowitzki rumors this offseason. Hes due $144 million through 2019, and as Branch Rickey said, "We finished last with you and we can finish last without you.
29

56

87

58.7

55.6

55.7

.395

.376

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs new mascot Jimmy the Painfully Hard Brick is not gaining the type of acceptance the organization had hoped for. Hopefully they dont have to replace him with Theo the Dysfunctional Front Office Gorilla.
30

46

98

50.3

50.5

50.5

.342

.325

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros offense is like a vampire looking in the mirror. It's there, I know it, but I can't see where it comes from.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
nrs5000

Cardinals' 1 and 7 day deltas are way off.

Sep 14, 2012 09:45 AM
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+1

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Leitch

Hey, we lost Nick Markakis twice! And Jason Hammel twice!

Sep 14, 2012 09:47 AM
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0

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bobbygrace

"Aroldis Champman" is a fortuitous typo.

Sep 14, 2012 13:42 PM
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+3

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jrmayne

As nrs5000 notes, the deltas are way, way off. The playoff calculations generally are also suspect, to be kind.

See: Detroit and CWS. Note that the Tigers gained 1.4% on their division chances (they're actually up 1.4% with CWS down 1.4%) after a rainout between the two teams. And then there's the deltas, which are dramatically miscalc'ed, lending a certain lack of confidence in the process. This sort of thing is not a new complaint, and the continuation of it is regrettable. (Props to Kory for his good work and lack of citation to the facially errant playoff odds.)

Sep 14, 2012 14:19 PM
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0

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