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Prospectus Hit List for September 12



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 11 Hit List for September 13
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The A's get the save of the year, while the Angels win a made-up mascot contest. Clearly, the A's won the day.

RkTmWLW1W2 W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

45

97

49.5

49.9

50.0

.342

.324

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros and Cubs are perfecting the idea of negative attendance.
2

55

87

57.8

54.4

54.6

.391

.372

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Steve Clevenger had quite the day at the office. He struck out three times, made an error, and when he did walk, he came around and got thrown out at home plate.
3

57

84

61.3

57.9

57.8

.415

.396

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies have never won the National League West and have only finished second three times in 20 years. They've had the same GM for 13 years. Maybe it's time for a change?
4

59

83

53.6

58.2

59.1

.405

.424

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ubaldo Jimenez lost his 16th game. With 21 games remaining on Cleveland's schedule Jimenez has an outside shot at losing 20. At last, something for Indians fans to get excited about.
5

64

77

65.7

62.6

62.4

.452

.471

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It will likely come as no surprise but the Royals have taken the fewest walks of any team in baseball. They're 20 behind the 29th place Cubs and 148 behind first-place Atlanta.
6

59

83

61.0

63.2

63.0

.433

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Every Royal had at least one hit but one. That's either just good old-fashioned midwestern hospitality or just good old-fashioned lousy pitching.
7

63

80

61.3

63.0

63.9

.439

.419

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Sure the Marlins lost again, but Heath Bell pitched a clean ninth inning TRADEHIMNOW so that's something.
8

64

76

65.7

62.2

64.0

.457

.477

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Brandon Morrow has replaced his old 'giving up too many walks' problem with a 'giving up too many hits' problem. Let's see if anyone notices!
9

68

75

67.3

67.7

66.8

.472

.452

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Edinson Volquez walked six in six innings and got the win. This continued the trend of A) Volquez walking too many hitters, and B) Volquez getting the win more often than you'd think.
10

68

74

68.7

65.5

67.0

.474

.494

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In 137 major league games, Jesus Montero has never successfully stolen a base. He's been caught twice though.
11

79

62

68.2

66.2

67.9

.499

.519

17.3%

24.7%

42.0%

13.6%

-0.5%

There are 22 games left on the Orioles schedule. Considering their entire season to date, who wants to bet against them going 20-2 the rest of the way? Joe Saunders can not be stopped!
12

72

69

70.5

70.5

68.4

.499

.479

0.0%

5.3%

5.3%

-1.4%

-6.7%

Since the trading deadline the Pirates are 13-24 and have lost 10 games in the standings.
13

71

71

74.4

74.1

71.3

.512

.492

0.0%

1.8%

1.8%

1.2%

1.3%

At 71-71 maybe it was too early to write off the Brewers. They're four games out with two teams to jump over.
14

65

77

66.0

69.4

71.3

.478

.458

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If the Mets beat Washington tonight by the score of 46-1 they'll still have a negative run differential.
15

64

78

69.2

71.6

71.7

.487

.507

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

You've heard the phrase 'walked the ballpark.' Jon Lester tried to put that plan into action. Lester walked seven different hitters in 5 1/3 innings.
16

74

68

73.0

72.0

71.7

.512

.492

2.9%

16.5%

19.4%

0.8%

0.6%

Nick Punto with the Red Sox: .200/.301/.272. Nick Punto with the Dodgers: .154/.313/.154. Why did they want Nick Punto again?
17

76

65

77.0

73.5

72.7

.530

.550

63.4%

1.3%

64.7%

-9.3%

3.3%

The White Sox started Dayan Viciedo at DH and he struck out three times in four at-bats. Clearly he was feeling pressure to perform. Said Viciedo, "I tried to strike out that fourth time, for Adam, but I couldn't. I just couldn't!"
18

71

71

70.1

72.8

72.9

.505

.485

0.0%

1.0%

1.0%

0.3%

1.0%

The Phillies may be at .500 again, but to grab a Wild Card spot they'll have to pass either the Cardinals or the Braves which [looks at standings] really? Only four games? Wow.
19

80

62

75.7

74.2

73.1

.534

.514

97.0%

1.8%

98.8%

1.3%

4.7%

Madison Bumgarner hit a three-run homer. That pretty much sums up the Giants as a team right there; pitchers who go above and beyond and offense from unexpected places.
20

70

72

73.8

73.7

73.5

.512

.492

0.1%

2.4%

2.5%

1.5%

1.9%

But, if the Diamondbacks trade Justin Upton who will go 0-for-3 from the fifth spot in the order?
21

86

57

80.7

78.7

76.2

.562

.543

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Current starting shortstop Wilson Valdez has three extra base hits in 166 plate appearances this season.
22

74

67

73.9

76.4

76.7

.534

.554

36.6%

1.6%

38.2%

10.3%

-11.5%

Austin Jackson's BABIP still "unsustainably high?" [checks] Yup. [goes about life as if nothing has happened]
23

81

60

79.9

76.8

77.6

.559

.579

10.6%

76.0%

86.6%

10.3%

27.4%

Jerry Blevins' save Tuesday -- entering a one-run game with runners at the corners, none out, cleanup hitter up -- is the fourth-highest leverage for a three-out save this year. But considering it was against the Angels, in September, let's call it the highest.
24

75

67

79.8

80.2

77.9

.551

.531

0.0%

72.1%

72.1%

-3.2%

-10.8%

If the Cardinals went 1-for-14 with men in scoring position, how did they score four? A grounder into a force out, an error, a "soft" groundball, and a solo homer.
25

81

62

80.5

79.6

79.5

.560

.541

1.7%

97.4%

99.1%

-0.5%

8.0%

Just five hits and one walk for one of the National League's best offenses won't get it done most nights, and, what do you know, it didn't last night either.
26

79

62

80.0

80.2

81.2

.568

.588

67.5%

18.1%

85.6%

-1.6%

-2.1%

After the Yankees went 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position, manager Joe Girardi threw his famous binder down the hallway and yelled, "Next time just get a hit!"
27

77

64

79.5

80.2

81.7

.565

.584

15.2%

29.2%

44.4%

-15.3%

-19.4%

Every once in a while the Rays' decision to not field an offense comes back to bite them.
28

77

65

77.7

80.1

81.7

.557

.577

1.0%

37.6%

38.6%

-8.2%

2.0%

The Angels' new mascot, Trouty the Trouty Trout just won the most valuable mascot competition despite being created right now.
29

84

57

82.2

86.2

85.2

.599

.618

88.4%

11.5%

99.9%

0.2%

0.8%

If there is anyone on the Rangers deserving of MVP consideration it is not Josh Hamilton, but Adrian Beltre. And yes, I said "consideration," nothing more.
30

88

54

85.6

87.3

85.5

.610

.591

98.3%

1.7%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Square these two thoughts: Rookies are supposed to wear down under the duress of the long major-league season. Bryce Harper is hitting .375/.468/.725 in September.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


5 comments have been left for this article.
rweiler

I don't know how unexpected the Bumgarner home run was. It was Coors field after all and Bumgarner is an excellent athlete with a beautiful swing. Given the PAs, he could probably hit well enough to be an everyday player.

Sep 12, 2012 08:43 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

You don't really ever go into a game expecting offense from the pitcher was my point, even if the guy has a nice swing.

Sep 12, 2012 09:13 AM
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Brian Oakchunas

Just a technical question: How did the A's get nearly a 3-point bump in their likelihood of winning the division despite staying even with Texas. I'd think as we get closer to the end, staying even would drop their percentage.

Sep 12, 2012 11:54 AM
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Brian Oakchunas

I do see that they earned part of the Angel's snowball's chance, but that still leaves two points to account for...?

Sep 12, 2012 11:56 AM
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gweedoh565

Just postulating here: maybe it was because the A's beat a better opponent (the Angels) than the Rangers (Indians).

Sep 12, 2012 13:42 PM
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