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Prospectus Hit List for September 11



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 10 Hit List for September 12
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Brewers and Phillies are at 0 percent no more.

RkTmW LW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

87

54

84.9

86.4

84.6

.608

.589

96.8%

3.2%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Gio Gonzalez is baseball's first 19-game winner, so if you see Gonzalez on the street you'll need to know that the official facial expression for 19 wins is a knowing eyebrow raise.
2

83

57

81.5

85.3

84.3

.597

.616

90.4%

9.3%

99.7%

0.2%

-0.1%

The Rangers are slugging .472 at home and .423 on the road. Even the road mark is only three points from sixth in all of baseball.
3

85

57

80.0

78.2

75.6

.561

.541

99.5%

0.5%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If winning 14-inning games is a sign of a team's inner strength, then attending and remaining through an entire 14-inning game is the sign of outer strength. For the record, that's 16,577 strong-ass people.
4

80

60

79.3

76.5

77.1

.559

.578

7.8%

67.9%

75.7%

4.6%

5.2%

With Jarrod Parker and Brett Anderson, the A's could go a long way in the playoffs if they could just get there.
5

81

61

80.6

79.7

79.5

.565

.545

3.2%

96.4%

99.6%

0.2%

5.9%

Jonny Venters threw the ball past third base on a sacrifice bunt, allowing a run to score in what would become the crucial four-run inning. Now, much like myself, Jonny Venters hates sacrifice bunts.
6

79

61

79.6

79.8

80.8

.570

.590

69.7%

17.8%

87.5%

0.8%

-4.4%

Mark Texieria will miss up to two weeks, but considering the Yankees are playing six of their next 22 against the NFL referees in Red Sox uniforms, maybe a rest isn't the worst possible outcome.
7

79

62

75.1

73.8

72.8

.533

.513

94.5%

3.1%

97.6%

0.4%

3.5%

Article that even the trolliest of trolls won't write: It's time for the Giants to trade Buster Posey
8

78

62

66.9

65.0

66.8

.494

.514

10.2%

18.2%

28.4%

-0.8%

-4.0%

Now that Buck Showalter has discovered the secrets of winning baseball games with a below-average team, the Orioles should give him a 20-year, $200 million contract and trade all their good players for career minor leaguers.
9

77

63

79.8

80.5

81.8

.570

.589

20.1%

39.2%

59.3%

5.1%

2.8%

The Rays are tied for 19th in runs scored. You would think having a DH would help, but they've been outscored by nine National League teams.
10

77

64

77.3

79.6

81.1

.558

.578

1.8%

45.8%

47.6%

-9.6%

19.6%

Can Mike Trout really get much better than this? Conceiving of such a thing boggles the mind.
11

76

64

76.7

73.4

72.5

.533

.553

73.6%

0.3%

73.9%

10.4%

8.2%

Alex Rios and A.J. Pierzynksi hit back-to-back homers, proving once again that rookie manager Robin Ventura is without peer when it comes to writing a list of baseball players down on a piece of paper.
12

75

66

79.5

79.6

77.2

.552

.532

0.5%

75.5%

76.0%

-1.5%

2.1%

The Cardinals have lost Lance Berkman for the season to another knee injury. Berkman has been mulling retirement but if he can figure out a way to play knee-less baseball next season he may reconsider playing.
13

73

67

73.2

75.5

75.8

.531

.551

26.4%

1.5%

27.9%

-10.7%

-27.3%

The Tigers are an interesting team but not nearly as interesting as Al Alburquerque, whose name is enough to stop a serious Hit List comment in its tracks.
14

74

67

72.6

71.7

71.4

.514

.494

5.0%

13.3%

18.3%

-1.7%

-9.0%

The Dodgers are 26th in runs scored. At 30 runs behind the low-scoring Rays, they're the lowest-scoring team with any shot at making the playoffs.
15

72

68

70.2

70.0

67.9

.500

.480

0.0%

6.0%

6.0%

1.3%

-4.6%

It's taken a while, but the Pirates are finally becoming the Pirates. This transformation is much easier on us analysts than if the Pirates had become the Yankees, or say, a grapefruit.
16

70

71

69.4

71.9

72.2

.503

.483

0.0%

0.6%

0.6%

0.6%

0.6%

Among the most interesting questions facing man are desalinization, reaching outside our solar system, and the meaning of it all, by which I mean can the Phillies reach .500? (I vote the great void gets them first.)
17

70

71

73.3

73.0

70.2

.508

.488

0.0%

0.5%

0.5%

0.5%

0.3%

The Brewers scored four in the seventh against the Braves because, according to Atlanta after the game, "[the Braves] are mean," "they're stupid and smelly," and "a bunch of smelly buttheads."
18

69

72

73.2

73.0

72.8

.511

.491

0.5%

0.9%

1.4%

0.2%

1.2%

Sure they're not in the playoff race much anymore, but the Diamondbacks are within striking distance of the Reds for the second-most doubles hit by any team this season! Go get ‘em, guys!
19

67

74

68.1

64.5

66.1

.471

.491

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

At .274, the Mariners have the lowest BABIP of any team in baseball.
20

64

75

65.3

62.1

63.9

.459

.479

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If the Blue Jays let John Farrell leave for the Red Sox job, would any fallen trees in the forest notice?
21

67

75

66.6

67.3

66.4

.471

.451

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The last time the Padres scored 11 of anything was when they went to the grocery store and dropped one of the eggs and the clerk made them pay for it anyway.
22

65

76

65.7

69.3

71.1

.481

.461

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If you tend to think of home runs allowed as nebulous blips within the ether of the vast vortex that is space, then Collin McHugh giving up three of them in five innings doesn't much matter. If you think of them as home runs, maybe McHugh not so good.
23

63

77

64.4

61.3

61.2

.446

.466

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Royals stand just barely out of the sixth overall pick in the draft. With just a little less hard work and just a hair less focus, maybe things won't go their way.
24

63

78

68.6

71.0

71.1

.485

.505

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Now that Josh Beckett is gone, the Red Sox clubhouse resembles Munchkinland from the movie Wizard of Oz.
25

63

79

60.9

62.8

63.7

.441

.421

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It says it right here in the handbook, striking out eight times in seven innings against Kyle Kendrick is grounds for contraction by Major League Baseball.
26

59

82

53.3

58.2

59.0

.407

.426

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Over his last 10 starts, Justin Masterson has given up one, eight, seven, two, zero, seven, one, eight, two, and six runs. Masterson hate boring!
27

59

82

61.3

63.4

63.1

.438

.457

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

When looking at a list of the most unappealing matchups of all time, the 58-82 Twins beating the 59-81 Indians is probably somewhere near the list. Also, if 28,000 people really watched in person it must have been Free Money night at the stadium.
28

57

83

60.9

57.3

57.2

.415

.396

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Time badly spent: the 57-83 Rockies coming up with a special winning high-five/handshake thing. Time better spent: doing something to be better at baseball.
29

55

86

57.5

53.9

54.2

.391

.372

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

There are many stats that can help determine a really good pitcher and so few of those same stats point to Chris Volstad.
30

44

97

49.0

49.6

49.6

.341

.323

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Latest sign the season is a disaster: Astros manager Tony DeFrancesco brought in Marvelous Marv Throneberry as a defensive replacement.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
pobothecat

Marv Throneberry reference! Yay!

Sep 12, 2012 00:00 AM
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