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Prospectus Hit List for September 10



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 7 Hit List for September 11
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Just a 4.5 percent chance of winning the division for the LOLs AngeLOLs Dahahahahadgers.

RkTmWLW1 W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

86

54

84.0

85.7

84.0

.607

.587

93.4%

6.6%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

The Nationals have officially shut down Stephen Strasburg. Other things the Nationals have shut down: the vending machine in the visitor's clubhouse, the right-field grandstand's janitorial staff, and the Teddy Roosevelt. Turns out he has a strained neck from carrying around that giant head.
2

83

57

81.5

85.3

84.3

.597

.616

88.7%

10.9%

99.6%

-0.1%

-0.3%

I don't want to name any names but it's never good when the starting pitcher gives up as many home runs as innings he pitched. coughROYOSWALTcough
3

77

63

79.8

80.5

81.9

.570

.589

19.4%

35.2%

54.6%

6.5%

2.0%

James Shields threw a two-hit shutout. If the Rays have discovered the centuries-old secrets to pitching it would be gentlemanly of them to share them.
4

75

65

79.8

79.9

77.8

.558

.538

0.5%

75.7%

76.2%

6.1%

8.5%

Carlos Beltran and Matt Holiday: 3-for-8 with two homers.
5

79

61

79.6

79.8

80.8

.570

.590

70.7%

16.6%

87.3%

1.3%

-8.5%

Joba Chamberlain faced six batters and struck out four of them. Though, to be fair, one of them was Mark Reynolds, who struck out while still in the on-deck circle.
6

77

63

77.0

79.3

80.8

.561

.581

4.8%

51.2%

56.0%

2.2%

32.2%

Mike Trout hit his fourth leadoff homer of the year. Why four? He's Mike Trout! You keep your questioning yapper shut!
7

81

60

80.4

79.1

78.8

.566

.546

6.6%

92.6%

99.2%

0.2%

10.2%

The Braves walked seven times against Mets pitching Sunday, including two in the 10th to help push the eventual winning run to third base. New Yorkers are always so quick to provide help!
8

84

57

79.4

77.8

75.3

.561

.541

99.5%

0.5%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I wouldn't know for sure, but losing to a team that is 11-50 since the start of July must involve a fair bit of self-loathing.
9

79

60

78.6

75.6

76.2

.556

.576

6.5%

64.7%

71.2%

8.4%

-9.0%

The last four A's series have gone like this: swept, got swept, swept, swept.
10

73

66

73.2

75.5

75.8

.535

.555

37.0%

1.6%

38.6%

1.3%

-28.2%

The Tigers are closing in on a playoff spot. The problem is their closing speed is reminiscent of a drunken infant.
11

79

61

74.7

73.1

72.2

.534

.514

95.1%

2.1%

97.2%

1.3%

1.7%

The moon will crash into the stars and then pinball around from star to star leaving a fantastic trail of rainbowed light behind it. Also Barry Zito threw 6 1/3 innings of shutout baseball.
12

69

72

73.2

73.0

72.8

.511

.491

0.4%

0.6%

1.0%

-0.8%

0.3%

Yes the Diamondbacks have been out-homered by the Pirates this season, but that only places them somewhere after fourth in the National League and in fact, they're fifth.
13

69

71

72.5

72.6

69.7

.507

.487

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.8%

-0.2%

Corey Hart hurt his left ankle and then Ryan Braun left an inning later after tweaking a lingering right wrist. That's a lot to pay for a 5-4 loss.
14

75

64

75.7

72.4

71.5

.530

.550

63.0%

0.3%

63.3%

-4.4%

8.3%

Using eight pitchers in a game is one thing, but doing it in a one-run loss is breaking some kind of fan pain-tolerance threshold code.
15

74

67

72.6

71.7

71.3

.514

.494

4.5%

16.3%

20.8%

-1.8%

-5.0%

This time last year the hitters in the Dodgers lineup were in: Oakland, Philadelphia, Boston, Miami, Albuquerque (Isotopes), L.A. (Dodgers), Toronto, L.A. (Dodgers), Philadelphia.
16

69

71

68.7

71.2

71.5

.501

.481

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.3%

-0.1%

The Phillies have the best stolen-base percentage in the National League. Hooray!
17

63

78

68.6

71.0

71.1

.485

.505

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Red Sox are 1-11 in their last 12 games. At this point, setting them on fire and floating them out to sea like a Viking funeral seems appropriate.
18

72

67

69.8

69.4

67.3

.501

.481

0.0%

5.6%

5.6%

-3.9%

-15.5%

Going 2-4 in six home games against the two worst teams in baseball is a recipe for: A) cake, B) pie, C) the traditional conclusion to any post-1980 Pittsburgh Pirates season.
19

65

75

65.7

69.0

70.7

.483

.463

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

David Wright left five runners on base because A) he's lazy and didn't feel like picking them up, B) his skills have deteriorated over the past day, or C) that's just how the cookie crumbles, son.
20

66

75

65.2

65.9

64.9

.465

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

When the Padres wear their camouflaged uniforms, they're record is Yuck-Eww.
21

78

62

66.9

65.0

66.8

.494

.514

9.9%

19.5%

29.4%

-15.2%

3.5%

Shocking though it may be, the team with Nate McClouth leading off and in left field and Wilson Betemit DHing lost to the team with the highest payroll in the major leagues. Hard to see that coming, I know.
22

67

74

68.1

64.5

66.1

.471

.491

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Against Tom Milone and A's pitching, the Mariners struck out 12 times, didn't walk.
23

63

78

60.7

62.5

63.4

.443

.423

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Homer Alert! City of Philadelphia: the Giancarlo Stanton Homer Barrage is coming. FEMA recommends you take potable water and pasteurized processed cheese food and/or pork-flavored snack foods and take cover underground during the hours following 7 p.m.
24

58

82

60.3

62.3

62.2

.434

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ya know, when Justin Morneau homers twice and Joe Mauer goes 3-for-5 with two extra-base hits, the Twins aren't all that bad.
25

64

75

65.3

62.1

63.9

.459

.479

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Contrary to popular belief, Omar Vizquel is not, in fact, ageless. He is quite old.
26

63

77

64.4

61.3

61.3

.446

.466

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jeremy Guthrie threw eight innings of six-hit shutout ball. He's magical like a luck dragon.
27

59

81

53.3

58.3

59.1

.410

.430

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

After last season's sub-.300 OBP and subsequent ban to Triple-A, Matt LaPorta's slash line this season (.161/.212/.161) isn't doing anyone but the opposing pitchers any favors.
28

56

83

60.3

57.0

56.8

.414

.394

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The way Coors Field is playing this year, for the Rockies, coming to Citizens Bank Park in Philly must be like when you first got to college and realized that your life doesn't have to be just like your crazy parents'.
29

54

86

56.7

53.1

53.5

.388

.369

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Normally you'd think, what are these guys doing sweeping the Pirates?! Are they trying to kill their draft position? But it's the Cubs, so you know, yes, of course they are.
30

44

96

48.9

49.4

49.5

.342

.325

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros are so bad that they're not worthy of me finishing this joke.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
Mike Bruso

Come on, Matt - throw us Astros fans a bone! Taking 2 of 3 from the Reds in Cincy this weekend, one by beating Cueto and one on a 3-run bomb off Chapman, made my September. Baseball is the best.

Sep 10, 2012 08:21 AM
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+3

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Ha! Thanks for commenting, Mike. To me the thing is this: on the field the Astros are a mess (congrats on the 2-of-3-vs-Cin thing though), but in the front office and now with Kevin Goldstein in the scouting department, I'm not sure there's an organization I'm higher on.

(How was that for bone throwing?)

Sep 10, 2012 10:53 AM
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