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Prospectus Hit List for September 7



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 6 Hit List for September 10
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Nick Punto update and more!

Rk TmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

74

63

74.8

77.0

78.4

.555

.575

1.7%

43.8%

45.5%

1.0%

12.8%

Mike Trout hits, hits for power, plays defense, runs extremely well, makes origami animals, can rebuild the engine on a '98 Civic, and bakes the best pineapple upside-down cake you've ever tasted.
2

68

70

72.1

71.5

71.4

.513

.493

0.4%

0.6%

1.0%

-0.1%

0.5%

At.301/.357/.512, Aaron Hill is living proof that sometimes a challenge trade works.
3

78

60

77.6

76.4

76.1

.558

.538

1.3%

93.1%

94.4%

2.7%

5.3%

Craig Kimbrel needs to strike out 35 hitters in his next 26 2/3 innings to equal what he did last season. That sounds like a tall order (almost 12 K/9) but this season Kimbrel is striking out over 16 per nine.
4

77

60

66.7

64.5

66.1

.501

.521

18.5%

29.7%

48.2%

11.1%

27.0%

After blowing a 6-1 lead in the top of the eighth, the Orioles scored four runs in the bottom of the inning and won. In the words of Stone Cold Steve Austin, "What?"
5

63

75

68.1

70.1

70.1

.492

.512

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In a two-month stretch that has seen the Red Sox come apart physically, mentally, and, through trade, actually, Dustin Pedroia has been, perhaps the lone bright spot. However, now that the commissioner's office has decreed he can no longer wear a miner's helmet during games, that will change.
6

74

62

74.4

70.6

69.9

.531

.551

59.0%

3.8%

62.8%

-1.5%

-22.9%

Alexei Ramirez has walked in just 2.7 percent of his plate appearances, third lowest of anyone (minimum 250 plate appearances division).
7

51

86

53.8

50.0

50.4

.374

.356

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Yes, yes, the Cubs lost, but not exactly being in the pennant race that hardly matters. Anthony Rizzo, however, matters, and 3-for-4 with a homer makes last night a good one.
8

83

55

78.1

76.7

74.4

.566

.546

99.0%

0.9%

99.9%

-0.1%

-0.1%

Reds starting pitchers have thrown 865 innings this season, all but three of which have come from the same five-man rotation.
9

58

79

52.1

56.9

57.9

.410

.430

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Indians are 18-8 in one-run games, which means they're 40-71 in two-run-or-more games.
10

56

80

59.3

56.4

56.5

.420

.400

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Yesterday in this space Colorado's lackluster road OPS was cited to explain away their loss featuring two hits and no runs. Yesterday the Rockies lost 1-0 again but this time they got seven hits. Improvement!
11

73

63

72.5

74.8

75.0

.543

.563

41.0%

9.6%

50.6%

0.9%

1.6%

The Tigers (73-63) are 72-63 when Jim Leyland secretly smokes in the dugout. Yeah, he forgot his pack one day.
12

42

95

47.2

47.5

47.8

.337

.319

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros are 3-13 since firing manager Brad Mills. So yeah, that worked.
13

61

76

62.7

60.1

60.0

.445

.465

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Nationals got the first overall pick two times in a row and wound up with Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. The Rays get B.J. Upton and David Price. The Royals got Luke Hochevar.
14

73

65

71.8

70.4

70.0

.517

.497

8.8%

9.8%

18.6%

3.1%

-2.9%

Nick Punto is hitting .167/.333/.167 since The Trade, so clearly the Dodgers lost that swap.
15

61

77

58.1

59.7

60.3

.433

.414

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

A scoreless inning from Heath Bell brought his ERA down to 5.56. Just 750 days left until Bell-free life!
16

67

70

70.7

70.6

67.4

.503

.483

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.3%

0.0%

A Milwaukee starting pitcher struck out a batter per inning and didn't walk anyone. Sure, he gave up seven hits and four runs in five innings, but playing out the string is all about looking on the positive side of things.
17

56

81

58.5

60.7

60.9

.431

.450

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Twins starting pitchers lead the league in being bad at striking out hitters.
18

77

60

77.0

77.4

78.5

.565

.585

67.2%

22.6%

89.8%

-3.3%

-8.7%

In a tie game entering the eighth inning, David Robertson's night went thusly: homer, single, homer. Then bullpen mate Boone Logan was brought in: homer. I assume that was for emphasis.
19

65

72

65.5

68.7

70.1

.492

.472

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Name three Mets. Yes, of course R.A. Dickey, David Wright but no, not Darryl Strawberry.
20

76

60

75.7

73.2

73.8

.549

.569

2.2%

44.6%

46.8%

-5.7%

-15.6%

The A's would be a game out in the American League East and ahead by two games if they were in the Central. If only they weren't so screwed by geography!
21

66

71

66.6

68.6

69.1

.493

.473

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Quick Quiz! Does Jonathan Papelbon have the highest K/9 in the Phillies bullpen? Nope! Oh, well, must be second then. Nope! He's behind Antonio Bastardo and Jake Diekman. Who? Right.
22

72

64

69.8

69.6

67.7

.513

.493

0.0%

18.4%

18.4%

-1.6%

-15.6%

Jose Tabata has eight stolen bases while being caught 12 times. He actually tried to steal 21 times but once on the way to second base he got lost.
23

64

74

63.2

64.4

63.4

.462

.442

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Now that Chris Denorfia has been re-signed to a two year deal we can all breathe a sigh of relief, pull up Baseball-Reference, and look up just who the heck Chris Denorfia is.
24

67

71

68.0

64.0

65.5

.479

.499

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

The proper time for the Mariners to trade Felix Hernandez is right now. Whoops, too late.
25

77

60

72.5

71.5

70.4

.532

.512

90.8%

2.3%

93.1%

-0.7%

1.3%

Tim Lincecum's fastball might be slower, but his strikeouts aren't down. Instead his walks are up, almost double since 2009.
26

74

63

78.7

78.9

76.7

.563

.543

1.0%

73.6%

74.6%

-3.0%

11.4%

Let's start a rumor right here, right now. Josh Hamilton to the Cardinals! Pass it on! Whoopee!
27

75

62

77.6

77.5

78.6

.563

.583

14.3%

42.2%

56.5%

-2.5%

6.0%

The Rays are 11th in runs scored and first in runs allowed in the American League. The Rays are a walking, pitching, hitting (kinda) park effect.
28

82

55

80.5

84.7

83.9

.604

.623

96.1%

3.7%

99.8%

0.0%

-0.1%

Top prospect Jurickson Profar was called up on September 1, but has played in just one game (doubling and homering in four plate appearances). Instead Ron Washington has Michael Young, who hasn't hit this season (.267/.298/.355) or played shortstop well since college.
29

61

75

62.8

60.0

61.9

.452

.472

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

John Farrell is probably a fine manager, but if the last place Blue Jays can convince anyone to give them a worthwhile prospect for him, he should be out the door before he has a chance to put his pants on.
30

85

52

83.5

85.6

83.8

.617

.598

98.7%

1.3%

100.0%

0.0%

0.1%

One hopes the Nationals have a warehouse worth of medical and statistical information backing up their decision to shut down one of the best pitchers in baseball for the playoffs.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
nrs5000

Can we pop the hood on this thing? How did the Dodgers gain 3% and the Cardinals lose 3% of odds overnight when neither team played?

Sep 07, 2012 12:49 PM
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