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Prospectus Hit List for September 6



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for September 5 Hit List for September 7
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Orioles lost last night. No, really.

RkTmWLW1W2 W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

42

95

47.2

47.5

47.8

.337

.319

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros have a pitcher named Abad. Unsurprisingly, he's 0-3.
2

51

85

54.0

50.2

50.6

.378

.360

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Welcome again to Happy Cubs Moment, sponsored by Happy Pills ("Who knows what's in them? Not us!"). Today's moment: the Cubs scored a run in the ninth inning, bringing the in-game deficit to just eight! This has been Happy Cubs Moment!
3

56

79

59.0

56.1

56.1

.421

.401

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies have an .859 OPS at home, but a .665 OPS on the road. This makes getting two-hit by Mike Minor, Eric O'Flaherty, and Craig Kimbrel in Atlanta easier to grasp.
4

58

79

52.1

56.9

57.9

.410

.430

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It's hard to imagine a time when A) the Indians would trade young talent for an ace, and B) Ubaldo Jimenez was an ace.
5

60

77

57.2

58.8

59.5

.430

.410

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Marlins officials should set off the crazy dolphin-spinning homer-thing when the Marlins lose. At least fans would have a reason to come to the games besides the A/C.
6

61

75

62.3

59.8

59.6

.446

.466

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Royals have six batters with an .800 OPS or better this season. Subtract pitchers, and they have five. Subtract hitters with fewer than 50 at-bats, and they have three.
7

56

81

58.5

60.7

60.9

.431

.451

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It's like the Twins are allergic to extra-base hits. That sounds like a bad joke (and it is), but how else do you explain Ryan Doumit hitting Minnesota's only double of the day and then breaking out into hives?
8

61

75

62.8

60.0

61.8

.452

.472

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Brandon Morrow did all right-thinking, run-differential-fearing baseball fans a solid last night by dropping Baltimore to second place. Baseball Analysts everywhere can safely emerge from their parent's basements, eat their pudding, and breathe the night air again, if only for one day.
9

64

74

63.2

64.4

63.4

.462

.442

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

My computer died so that you might know that Will Venable's three walks last night were the most he has ever had in a game. Never let it be said that the Hit List has no casualties.
10

76

60

65.8

63.5

65.0

.497

.517

11.9%

24.7%

36.6%

-4.9%

20.5%

And just as it began, it ends, crawling back to the earth, to the dirt, to the primordial ooze whence it came. (The Orioles lost.)
11

67

71

68.0

64.0

65.6

.479

.499

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Jesus Montero is hitting .311/.340/.468 on the road. That's something right there.
12

67

69

70.6

70.4

67.3

.506

.486

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

-0.2%

0.3%

Rickie Weeks' two homers brought his season line up to... well, I don't want to make Brewers fans sick, so let's just go with "better than it was yesterday."
13

72

64

69.8

69.6

67.7

.513

.493

0.1%

19.6%

19.7%

7.7%

-8.1%

If Clint Barmes could squeeze bunt every time up, well... the world would be a better place.
14

66

71

66.6

68.6

69.0

.493

.473

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Roy Halladay dominated, Chase Utley homered, and the Phillies won. Ah... memories.
15

74

62

74.4

70.6

69.9

.531

.551

60.0%

4.4%

64.4%

2.4%

-20.9%

Alex Rios hit two homers, including a grand slam. Adam Dunn was highly offended.
16

73

65

71.8

70.4

70.0

.517

.497

8.0%

7.3%

15.3%

-3.9%

-10.8%

The Dodgers are 5-7 since the Mega-Trade. That's not too soon to pronounce a deal that added 13 years and a quarter billion dollars to the team's payroll a total failure, right?
17

65

72

65.5

68.7

70.1

.491

.471

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

One of the great crimes committed against the baseball-watching public this season is MLB's denial of the Mets' request to allow R.A. Dickey to make the playoffs as a separate entity.
18

63

75

68.1

70.1

70.1

.492

.512

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Last year, the Red Sox allowed Kevin Millwood to leave because they had too much pitching. This year, Millwood's 4.27 ERA would be the second best of anyone who has started a game for the Red Sox.
19

77

60

72.5

71.5

70.4

.532

.512

91.3%

2.5%

93.8%

-0.3%

7.5%

If you don't count the first 5 1/3 innings, when the Giants went in order, scoring just two runs doesn't look so bad.
20

68

70

72.1

71.5

71.4

.513

.493

0.7%

0.6%

1.3%

0.7%

0.1%

After he retired the first 16 hitters in a row on Wednesday in San Francisco, you can put Trevor Cahill's name on the slight incline that is the pantheon of not-quite-almost perfect games.
21

76

60

75.7

73.2

73.8

.549

.569

3.4%

48.3%

51.7%

-8.2%

-8.1%

I propose a rule amendment: if a pitcher is hit in the head and has to leave the game, he becomes ineligible for a loss.
22

83

55

78.1

76.7

74.5

.566

.546

99.4%

0.5%

99.9%

-0.1%

0.2%

Joey Votto is back! Cue bands playing, cue confetti, cue kids dancing in the street. Hey kids! Get the heck out of the street!!
23

73

63

72.5

74.8

75.1

.543

.563

40.0%

9.6%

49.6%

0.2%

-5.8%

Doug Fister pitched well, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder homered, and the Tigers won easily. Every once in a while, the universe opens itself up to show Tigers fans what is possible. Every once in a while.
24

77

60

76.9

75.7

75.5

.557

.537

1.7%

90.3%

92.0%

1.3%

2.4%

Chipper Jones singled and scored the only run. Say what you will about him, but the man has a sense of theater.
25

74

63

78.7

78.9

76.7

.563

.543

0.5%

77.1%

77.6%

-5.2%

8.1%

Oddly, for a moment while my browser was loading, it appeared that the Cardinals had scored six runs to the Mets' two and still lost. Even more oddly, this never seemed implausible.
26

74

63

74.8

77.0

78.4

.555

.575

2.3%

43.6%

45.9%

9.9%

21.1%

The Angels have won three straight, eight of nine, and twelve of their last 15. They're hitting .299/.356/.440 during that stretch, compared to .275/.333/.437 overall. Moral: it's the pitching!
27

77

59

76.9

77.4

78.5

.569

.589

76.2%

16.4%

92.6%

4.2%

-5.8%

The most spectacular element of last night's Yankees win: Derek Jeter, who has a 63.5 ground-ball percentage, hitting only one groundball in five at-bats. See? I told you it was spectacular.
28

75

62

77.6

77.5

78.5

.563

.583

11.9%

47.4%

59.3%

-4.5%

-0.9%

A two-run throwing error is a tough way to lose. That it came from all-glove-no-bat Elliot Johnson is just more Tabasco sauce in the wound.
29

84

52

82.3

84.4

82.7

.613

.594

98.3%

1.7%

100.0%

0.0%

0.3%

Get your bag of money and your time machine, and commit this to memory: the first-place Nationals hit six homers, and Gio Gonzalez won his 18th. No, you can't write it down. Everyone knows time machines can only take one carry-on.
30

81

55

79.9

84.0

83.2

.603

.622

94.3%

5.6%

99.9%

0.9%

0.0%

The slash line everyone loves to cite for Adrian Beltre is his 2010 with Boston, when he hit .321/.365/.553. This year he's hitting .318/.354/.553. Park effects and all that, but still.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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