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Prospectus Hit List for September 4



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 31 Hit List for September 5
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Two teams at 100 percent playoff odds, 14 at zero.

RkTmWLW1W2W3 HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

80

54

79.1

83.1

82.5

.606

.625

94.0%

5.8%

99.8%

-0.1%

0.0%

Aristotle once said, "There is a foolish corner in the brain of the wisest man." There's a Texas Rangers and Michael Young joke to be made here somewhere.
2

82

52

79.8

81.0

79.4

.601

.582

95.8%

4.2%

100.0%

0.0%

0.2%

Jayson Werth has a .100 OPS with runners at first and second, but a 1.429 OPS with runners at first and third. Jayson Werth has an irrational and blinding hatred of asymmetrically.
3

76

58

76.0

76.8

77.8

.572

.592

76.9%

15.7%

92.6%

-3.5%

-6.3%

The Yankees are 9-11 since signing Derek Lowe. If anyone sees a black limo with license plate "SOXROOL" drop a check off at the back gate of Yankee Stadium, well, you'll know what's up.
4

82

54

77.4

75.3

73.1

.566

.546

99.2%

0.8%

100.0%

0.0%

0.2%

Two benefits of having an 8 1/2 game lead: 1) You don't have to rush your all-everything first baseman back from multiple knee surgeries. 2) You're up by 8 1/2 games.
5

73

62

77.6

78.0

75.8

.564

.544

0.7%

72.6%

73.3%

4.2%

-10.2%

Getting Andres Torres called out in the ninth inning for missing first base when he didn't miss first base is karmic payback for what exactly?
6

74

61

76.5

76.0

76.9

.562

.581

13.0%

43.8%

56.8%

4.3%

-4.4%

The Rays took Evan Longoria out in the eighth inning of a tie game in a pennant race. But they say he's not injured. Mike Rizzo, is that you?
7

76

59

76.4

75.0

74.9

.560

.540

4.2%

89.7%

93.9%

5.3%

1.7%

Kris Medlen had 12 strikeouts and has not given up an earned run since August 11.
8

76

58

75.9

73.1

73.7

.557

.577

5.0%

65.4%

70.4%

-9.6%

28.5%

The A's beat the Red Sox 20-2 on Friday. Then they beat them 7-1, and then 6-2. Conclusion: The A's are slipping!
9

72

63

72.6

75.1

76.4

.548

.568

1.0%

26.8%

27.8%

4.4%

7.8%

More impressive: Vernon Wells homering and singling or Vernon Wells walking twice? You know what I'm going to say.
10

72

62

70.9

73.4

73.8

.541

.561

42.2%

13.3%

55.5%

-11.3%

-19.9%

Delmon Young had two hits including a double. I mention this because Delmon Young contributing positively to the Tigers is as noteworthy an event as a diving stop by a Tigers infielder.
11

77

58

72.2

71.4

70.4

.539

.519

89.9%

4.3%

94.2%

-1.3%

12.9%

Marco Scutaro had three hits including the walk-off single in the 10th inning. After thinking about this for 10 minutes I can tell you itís not funny in any way whatsoever.
12

73

61

74.0

69.9

69.4

.534

.554

57.8%

7.7%

65.5%

10.2%

-20.0%

The White Sox are back in first place. In more important news, Kevin Youkilis has what is either a ferret pasted to his upper lip or a mustache. I'm going ferret.
13

73

63

71.2

69.7

69.3

.521

.501

10.1%

17.1%

27.2%

1.9%

-1.1%

Adrian Gonzalez homered in his first at-bat with the Dodgers, and had the walk-off single on Sunday, but since coming to L.A. he's hit .214/.283/.333.
14

70

64

68.0

67.7

66.2

.507

.487

0.1%

11.1%

11.2%

-9.3%

-1.9%

Through June the Pirates scored 3.8 runs per game. Since they've averaged 4.7 runs per game. This is precisely why there haven't been nearly as many clever 'The Pirates can't hit' jokes since late June.
15

66

70

70.5

69.6

69.3

.506

.486

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.5%

-1.9%

The Diamondbacks have a .000 winning percentage in walk-off losses.
16

65

69

68.9

68.9

66.1

.502

.482

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.1%

0.2%

Ryan Braun is your MLB OPS leader.
17

65

70

65.3

68.0

68.2

.494

.474

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

Kevin Frandsen is not just hitting .347, he's a handsome devil hitting .347. (Note: Were he hitting .247 he'd just be hitting .247.)
18

62

74

67.1

69.4

69.6

.493

.513

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

While putting together the lineup last night for what would be Boston's seventh straight loss, Bobby Valentine accidentally fired himself.
19

75

59

63.7

61.4

63.1

.491

.511

10.1%

21.5%

31.6%

5.6%

14.4%

Two numbers: 1) One. 2) -31. One is the number of games the Orioles are out of first place in the AL East. The other is the Orioles run differential. Guess which is which.
20

64

71

64.5

67.7

68.9

.491

.471

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1%

There is a song by Toad the Wet Sprocket with a lyric that goes, "... and the tears sting like alcohol." I always thought the words were, "... and the tears taste like applesauce." Much like the Mets, wouldn't it be nice if...
21

66

70

67.0

62.7

64.2

.478

.498

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Mariners are 24-15 since trading Ichiro.
22

62

74

61.7

63.2

62.1

.458

.438

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Chase Headley is hitting .300/.393/.546. On the road, of course.
23

60

74

62.8

60.1

61.8

.457

.477

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Blue Jays not only lost to Joe Saunders, they had people mentioning "Joe Saunders" and "perfect game" in the same sentence.
24

60

74

61.0

58.7

58.3

.444

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Bruce Chen gave up just six hits and one walk with five strikeouts in six innings yet he got the loss. Hard to figure, unless maybe it was the four homers he gave up.
25

60

75

56.9

58.4

58.9

.434

.414

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

At an underachieving 60-75, is there a chance Ozzie Guillen could be fired? Internet baseball writers everywhere say, "PLEASE NOOOO!!"
26

55

80

56.9

59.4

59.5

.427

.447

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The good news is Jamey Carroll hit his first home run of the season, and... [pause] That's it. That's the good news.
27

55

78

57.6

54.9

54.7

.417

.398

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Last night Colorado gave up six runs to a Chipper Jones-less Braves lineup. On Sunday they gave up 10 to the Padres. If anyone was wondering how the Rockies are 23 games under .500, that's how.
28

57

78

51.6

56.4

57.2

.411

.431

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Corey Kluber is: A) Your dentist. B) The latest graduate of Hogwarts. C) A pitcher for the Indians who just got his first win. D) That guy from your frat who puked on the neighbor's cat.
29

51

83

54.4

51.6

51.8

.390

.371

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Josh Vitters is hitting .081/.121/.161 since coming up in early August, which is perfect because he's both part of the Cubs' future and not ready at the same time.
30

42

93

47.0

47.4

47.6

.341

.323

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros have a 9 1/2 game lead on the Cubs for the first pick in next year's draft. I hope they're getting ready. Actually, I know they are.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


10 comments have been left for this article.
thegeneral13

Does the ferret have Alpo gas?

Sep 04, 2012 07:30 AM
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gweedoh565

Hey! The Reds have FINALLY passed the Cardinals according to HLF. That's something.

Sep 04, 2012 07:58 AM
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+1

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Something it is!

Sep 04, 2012 09:10 AM
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TGisriel

I think the Orioles have a better chance of making the playoffs (10 spots) than entering the top 10 of the Prospectus Hit List

Sep 04, 2012 09:33 AM
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+3

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Maybe so, but if it were up to you, which would prefer? I'm guessing you'd pick the current set-up as opposed to the reverse.

Sep 04, 2012 10:40 AM
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BrianGunn

What replay did you see that showed that Andres Torres touched first base? Every replay I saw was completely inconclusive.

Sep 04, 2012 11:06 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Which ever one was on MLB.com. Looked pretty conclusive to me. I'd be open to being wrong on that though. You saw a different one that looked inconclusive?

Sep 04, 2012 13:14 PM
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eighteen

"...part of the Cubs' future and not ready at the same time."

As succint a summary of the Chicago National League franchise as has ever been written.

Sep 04, 2012 14:47 PM
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+2

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Hendo

Asymmetry. But, yeah.

Sep 04, 2012 15:13 PM
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+1

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Dodger300

100% is not mathematically possible yet.

If nothing else, last season's ending should have taught us that Yogi was right: It ain't over 'til it's over.

Sep 05, 2012 00:27 AM
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