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Prospectus Hit List for August 31



by Jason Wojciechowski

Hit List for August 30 Hit List for September 4
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

So, so, so, so, so, so, so much baseball.

RkTm WLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

80

52

74.8

72.9

71.3

.566

.547

98.4%

1.5%

99.9%

0.2%

1.5%

I ate lunch with an intern in my organization one time in a town somewhere near Cincinnati. The street literally just had chain restaurants, in a specific and repeating pattern. It was weird. The Reds are good.
2

79

51

76.7

77.9

76.3

.596

.576

90.6%

9.3%

99.9%

0.2%

0.3%

Bryce Harper homered again. I never should have cut him in that keeper league.
3

77

53

76.1

79.5

78.9

.599

.618

95.2%

4.7%

99.9%

0.0%

0.2%

I hate when teams have off-days, dammit.
4

75

55

75.0

76.1

77.1

.583

.603

91.4%

7.1%

98.5%

0.2%

-0.8%

New York starts a key series with Baltimore today. Just soak that in for a second.
5

74

57

74.5

72.8

72.8

.561

.542

9.4%

80.1%

89.5%

-0.1%

3.2%

The best daytime hitter on the Braves is David Ross: .368/.446/.684. What's the opposite of a vampire?
6

74

57

69.8

69.2

68.3

.537

.517

88.2%

3.4%

91.6%

5.5%

4.2%

Sergio Romo faced one batter, threw three pitches, and got three swinging strikes. THAT's a perfect game.
7

73

57

71.4

68.5

68.9

.542

.562

3.8%

57.5%

61.3%

1.8%

37.1%

Brandon Moss walked once in five trips while the rest of the lineup had 13 hits, seven for extra bases. The bloom might be off his ... moss.
8

72

58

72.7

69.0

68.4

.542

.562

76.1%

10.1%

86.2%

1.0%

4.1%

Hector Gimenez got his tenth career at-bat last night. The first one was in 2006.
9

72

58

60.3

57.4

59.3

.479

.499

2.9%

19.8%

22.7%

6.5%

15.1%

Zach Britton reached double digits in strikeouts for the first time in his career. Over his last three starts: 21 2/3 innings, 21 K, 5 BB, 3 R, 31 grounders to 19 flies.
10

71

60

76.6

76.7

74.4

.570

.550

1.2%

62.0%

63.2%

-6.9%

-7.9%

The vaunted St. Louis offense has one run in its last three games despite the worst batting line in last night's lineup being Rafael Furcal's altogether reasonable .264/.325/.346.
11

71

60

73.8

72.4

73.6

.555

.575

5.7%

45.0%

50.7%

-9.9%

-32.2%

The Rays and the Orioles have scored the same number of runs this year. Tampa has allowed 116 fewer. You already know who's ahead in the standings.
12

70

60

67.7

67.1

65.5

.520

.500

0.4%

32.8%

33.2%

5.8%

6.6%

The Pirates and Cardinals have the same home record and differ by just one win (and no losses) on the road. They're also 82 runs apart in differential.
13

70

62

69.0

67.4

66.9

.518

.498

11.4%

10.4%

21.8%

-4.2%

-1.7%

A shrug-your-shoulders game for Clayton Kershaw involves six innings, two runs, and nine strikeouts. It's not really fair.
14

69

62

69.1

71.7

72.9

.539

.559

1.0%

32.1%

33.1%

8.4%

4.7%

Between Mike Trout, the slow start, the Greinke trade, and the generally disappointing Angels season, Albert Pujols is having just about the quietest top-20 TAv season a man could have.
15

69

61

68.1

70.3

71.0

.535

.555

23.9%

23.7%

47.6%

-7.8%

-27.4%

Is Prince Fielder the second-best significantly overweight player ever? He's got a .410 OBP and .522 SLG like it ain't even a thing.
16

65

67

68.7

67.8

67.4

.509

.489

0.4%

0.5%

0.9%

-0.3%

-6.2%

I don't really know if Kevin Towers is a good GM or just an OK one, but if he were ever out of a job, someone should hire him as their Bullpen Building Consultant in a heartbeat.
17

64

68

65.8

61.6

62.9

.482

.502

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.3%

All-contact, no-runs games always amuse me. Blake Beavan last night: seven innings, two runs, one strikeout. Two (count 'em) swinging strikes. Two!
18

62

68

66.2

66.0

63.4

.495

.475

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

0.0%

I don't have a good joke about Jonathan Lucroy's seven RBI, so: Francisco Rodriguez should start a service where if you're feeling too good about yourself, if things are going suspiciously well in your life, he'll show up and ruin everything.
19

62

70

68.2

70.3

70.9

.514

.534

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.5%

James Loney hitting .412/.444/.588 in his first couple of Red Sox games puts Kelly Shoppach's trolling to shame.
20

62

69

62.4

65.7

65.8

.488

.468

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I don't want to make this a bigger thing than it is (the Phillies aren't even in last place in their division, after all) but: this team won at least 86 games nine straight years and ten of eleven, going to the playoffs in the last five of those. Now they're a .473 team benching their shortstop for lack of hustle. All good things ...
21

61

71

60.7

62.0

60.8

.463

.443

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

San Diego has the best "last 10" record in the league, at 9-1. It's a great time to make a run, as they're now just 10 1/2 games back of a wild card spot.
22

61

70

61.6

65.5

66.8

.487

.467

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I don't like that Jonathon Niese has that weird "o" at the end of his name. He's got a 3.55 ERA, though, so I guess he can do as he please.
23

59

71

59.5

57.2

57.1

.448

.468

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jeremy Guthrie with the Rockies: whatever man. Jeremy Guthrie with Kansas City: four gems in his last five starts.
24

59

71

61.8

60.0

61.6

.466

.486

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The second-highest OBP in last night's Toronto lineup: Kelly Johnson, .314. This puts John Farrell in the weird position of probably being correct in batting Rajai Davis leadoff.
25

59

72

55.5

56.6

57.2

.436

.416

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Giancarlo Stanton.
26

55

76

50.2

55.3

55.9

.413

.433

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Justin Masterson gave up homers to Coco Crisp and Cliff Pennington. In the same game. One feels that our good Mr. Masterson might have some weakness against lefties.
27

53

76

55.3

52.6

52.6

.414

.394

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies (713 runs allowed, tops by 38 runs) have been charged with giving succor to their enemies. Or maybe that's giving suckers to their enemies. Or both. Bud Selig just kind of mumbled a lot during the press conference.
28

53

78

55.0

57.7

57.9

.427

.446

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Darin Mastroianni pinch-ran for Ryan Doumit, stole second and third on Jesus Montero, and then shot a Neo New Wave film about death and carnivals.
29

50

80

52.9

50.0

50.3

.391

.372

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Starlin Castro had a single, a triple, and a walk, and after the game he got distracted in the middle of autographing a little girl's ball and wandered off.
30

40

91

45.4

45.6

45.7

.337

.319

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Fernando Rodriguez has nine losses as a middle reliever. How many teams would tolerate his 5.96 ERA? Seriously: he's lucky to be an Astro. If he'd been, say, a Yankee, he'd be making minor-league money right now. Instead he's got a mid-six-figures salary.

Jason Wojciechowski is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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4 comments have been left for this article.
NYYanks826

I'm assuming the best significantly overweight player ever is Babe Ruth? Unless, of course, you're referring to Cecil Fielder.

Aug 31, 2012 13:21 PM
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BP staff member Jason Wojciechowski

Yeah, I meant later career Babe Ruth. Cecil could be third, I guess, but I think his son has passed him.

Actually, now that I think about it, David Wells is probably still in second place ahead of Prince.

Aug 31, 2012 16:59 PM
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slimandslam

Fielder has a long way to go to catch Mickey Lolich.

Aug 31, 2012 21:03 PM
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slimandslam

Am I remembering Lolich correctly? His BR page lists him as 6'1", 170 lbs. I guess that was his rookie weight. He did not get smaller as he got older.

Aug 31, 2012 21:07 PM
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