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Prospectus Hit List for August 30



by Jason Wojciechowski

Hit List for August 29 Hit List for August 31
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Celebrating the achievements of Brett Wallace, Matt Harvey, Bryce Harper and the non-achievements of the Seattle Mariners.

RkTm WLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

80

52

74.8

72.9

71.3

.566

.547

97.7%

2.0%

99.7%

0.0%

0.0%

The Reds have 80 wins with 30 to play. Eighty! The Reds! Have you seen Joey Votto's player photo? Click to his card and look. Eighty wins should perk him up a bit, no?
2

78

51

75.4

76.5

74.8

.590

.571

86.1%

13.6%

99.7%

0.7%

-0.1%

Slump ... uh, shlump. Bryce Harper hit two homers last night. He's back!
3

77

53

76.1

79.5

78.8

.599

.618

95.1%

4.7%

99.8%

-0.1%

0.4%

Matt Harrison has 15 wins and eight losses in 26 starts. That means just three no-decisions, which isn't necessarily impressive, but it definitely is weird, it being 2012 and all.
4

75

55

75.0

76.1

77.1

.583

.603

91.6%

6.8%

98.4%

-0.8%

-0.5%

In my head, I call CC Sabathia "Sissy Sabathia." Not in a mean way, like I'm calling him a sissy. Like Sissy Spacek or something. A good Sissy. It's because "CC" sounds like "Sissy." He pitched aight, by the way.
5

74

57

74.5

72.8

72.7

.561

.541

13.9%

75.8%

89.7%

-4.0%

0.9%

Chipper Jones made an error in his last ever game in San Diego. That's what you get for giving him a surfboard as a retirement gift.
6

73

57

68.9

68.3

67.6

.534

.514

81.3%

4.8%

86.1%

-2.0%

6.0%

The Giants used seven pitchers in last night's game and saw Barry Zito only manage 2 1/3 innings. They also won the contest. The joys of playing in Houston.
7

72

57

72.4

68.7

68.2

.545

.565

73.6%

11.5%

85.1%

2.3%

-1.6%

If the veal at my neighborhood comedy club had a 1.42 ERA like Donnie Veal does, I'd order it every time.
8

72

57

70.4

67.5

67.9

.538

.558

4.1%

54.9%

59.0%

7.1%

27.9%

Seven different A's hit a double last night, and the eighth guy homered. Poor Cliff Pennington.
9

71

59

76.8

77.0

74.6

.576

.556

1.7%

68.4%

70.1%

-7.2%

7.8%

I said yesterday that getting shut out by the Pirates isn't as embarrassing as it used to be. But getting shut out twice in a row by the Pirates? That's exactly as embarrassing as it always was.
10

71

59

73.5

72.3

73.4

.558

.578

6.7%

54.4%

61.1%

9.3%

-16.6%

If the season ended today, all the fans who bought tickets for September baseball would file a class-action suit against MLB. Also the Rays wouldn't be in the playoffs.
11

71

58

59.6

56.7

58.5

.476

.496

1.7%

15.2%

16.9%

-8.4%

6.7%

Cool Joe Saunders trade, bro.
12

70

60

67.7

67.1

65.5

.520

.500

0.6%

27.3%

27.9%

9.2%

0.1%

I feel like I rediscover Wandy Rodriguez every time he pitches.
13

70

61

68.7

67.4

67.0

.521

.501

17.5%

7.9%

25.4%

2.8%

-5.1%

Mark Ellis has eleven homers this year, including a grand slam last night. He's supposedly 5'10", but everyone knows he's more like 5'8". I can't square these two things, mainly because I'm 5'9". I've hit one homer in my life.
14

69

60

67.7

69.8

70.6

.537

.557

26.4%

28.5%

54.9%

-13.0%

-14.3%

Do you think the Tigers realize that Bruce Chen isn't good? He's not good. You're not supposed to go eight innings without scoring against Bruce Chen.
15

68

62

68.3

71.2

72.3

.538

.558

0.8%

23.8%

24.6%

3.6%

-1.5%

Here's a fact for you: only the White Sox have gotten a lower batting average from their pinch-hitters than the Angels have. I estimate this to be 84 percent of the reason why the Angels are in third place in the AL West.
16

64

67

68.0

66.7

66.3

.506

.486

1.2%

0.1%

1.3%

0.4%

-9.7%

Did you know that Brad Ziegler is batting .333 this season? I'm sure he's a perfectly adequate athlete, but something about throwing as funky as he does makes it seem like he's totally awkward at everything else, doesn't it?
17

63

68

65.2

61.2

62.6

.481

.501

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.1%

Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, Chone Figgins, Jesus Montero ... it's just depressing. It's sad! I like good players playing good. I don't like this.
18

62

67

65.8

65.6

63.0

.497

.477

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

The Brewers have the most squeezes in baseball, the most sacrifices by position players, the most sacrifice attempts overall, and the fifth-most stolen base attempts. They also have Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart, and a losing record.
19

62

69

68.0

69.8

70.3

.515

.535

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.4%

Every Sox pitcher struck out exactly two hitters last night. Of course, two strikeouts isn't that impressive for a starting pitcher. This might explain the 10-3 loss.
20

61

71

60.7

62.0

60.8

.463

.443

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

No, seriously, what is Mark Kotsay even doing?
21

61

69

61.8

64.7

64.8

.485

.465

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Tyler Cloyd, a starting pitcher, made his big-league debut last night. He also walked twice, which is two more times than anyone else in the Philadelphia lineup walked.
22

61

69

61.3

65.5

66.6

.489

.469

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Matt Harvey, who you'll recall is a starting pitcher, threw a pitch at 92 mph that Gameday called a slider. The pitch was probably actually a cutter, but I don't care, that's awesome.
23

59

72

55.5

56.6

57.1

.436

.416

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The dudes batting in front of Jose Reyes last night were Gorkys Hernandez and Donovan Solano, which I have to imagine is not what he signed up for.
24

58

71

59.0

56.7

56.5

.446

.466

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Every time I seek out a Billy Butler box score, he's gone 0-for-4. he's batting .305/.372/.503. I don't know, you tell me.
25

58

71

61.1

59.2

60.7

.463

.483

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Yunel Escobar hasn't hit this year, but three doubles and a homer last night is nothing to sniff at. Unless you're a dog and you sniff at everything anyway.
26

55

75

50.1

55.3

55.8

.416

.435

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Cleveland has the fewest sacrifices by a position player in the American League. Manny Acta's doing something right. Unfortunately, that something isn't "make the players play real real good."
27

53

76

55.3

52.6

52.6

.414

.394

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

By our Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency metric, the Rockies, even accounting for Coors, have the worst record of turning batted balls into outs in the league. It's not particularly close.
28

53

77

54.6

57.1

57.4

.427

.447

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins threw a how-many-hitter? Tw-- oh, it's the Mariners? Eh. (Still: let's clap it up for Sam Deduno.)
29

49

80

52.2

49.4

49.7

.388

.369

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

"J Segura stole second, J Segura safe at third on throwing error by catcher W Castillo, J Segura scored on throwing error by second baseman D Barney." CUUUUUBBBBBS.
30

40

90

45.2

45.4

45.5

.339

.321

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Brett Wallace is slugging .500.

Jason Wojciechowski is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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4 comments have been left for this article.
R.A.Wagman

5-10" Mark Ellis has only 5 homers, none of which were hit last night. 6-3" A.J. Ellis has 11 homers, the most recent of which was an 8th inning grand slam hit in Coors last night.
As for you, have you tried adding some uppercut loft to your swing?

Aug 30, 2012 09:04 AM
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BP staff member Jason Wojciechowski

D'oh! Wrong Ellis! Thanks for the correction.

I don't really HAVE a swing anymore. These days, I'm working on getting topspin on my backhand.

Aug 30, 2012 09:53 AM
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rgbauer

Bruce Chen ISN'T any good, but the White Sox can't hit him either, so maybe he isn't quite as bad as we think he is.

Aug 30, 2012 10:01 AM
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trueblue33

The Cub error wasn't on Barney, but on Valbuena (although you did make me check). Only reason I doubted was because Barney is like the only Cub who DOESN'T make errors.

Sep 02, 2012 13:47 PM
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