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Prospectus Hit List for August 28



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 27 Hit List for August 29
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Reds have reached 100 percent playoff odds. Thirteen teams are at zero.

RkTmWLW1W2W3 HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

40

88

44.6

44.5

44.6

.339

.322

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Possible 2013 team slogan: Probably won't finish second in team strikeouts like we did in 2012!
2

49

78

51.8

48.9

49.3

.392

.373

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I applaud the Cubs playing the young guys but is it necessary to put young guys with .093/.107/.185 slash lines second in the lineup?
3

52

75

54.0

51.3

51.3

.411

.392

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Colorado won 10-0 over Josh Beckett. This would have been more encouraging A) in April, B) in May, or C) Literally any other time in Rockies history other than now.
4

52

76

53.0

55.0

55.3

.420

.440

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Many times when facing Felix Hernandez, things don't go your way. You just write another "Felix" down on the olí won-loss-felix record and go on with your business.
5

55

73

50.2

55.2

55.6

.422

.442

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

At this point if Matt LaPorta became the AL's James Loney, the Indians should do back flips.
6

58

71

53.9

55.4

55.9

.433

.413

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Surprisingly the Marlins put Ozzie Guillen on waivers, but nobody claimed him.
7

56

71

57.7

55.4

55.2

.442

.461

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Alex Gordon's lost season: at .295/.368/.442 it could get much, much loster.
8

57

70

59.9

57.8

59.2

.460

.480

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Over the nine games before last night's, Colby Rasmus had gone 1-for-37 with 18 strikeouts, a slash line of .027/.100/.027. So of course he hits the homer in the bottom of the ninth. Right. Sure.
9

60

70

59.3

60.8

59.5

.461

.441

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The future is now as Casey Kelly, obtained from Boston for Adrian Gonzalez, threw six shutout innings, striking out four and walking two.
10

70

57

58.7

55.3

57.1

.475

.495

1.8%

15.4%

17.2%

2.3%

5.0%

All you need to know about the Orioles' playoff chances: Yesterday Lew Ford hit sixth and was the designated hitter. (Yes, they won, SHHH!)
11

59

69

59.7

63.8

65.0

.483

.463

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

David Wright update: .317/.410/.515 with 55 extra-base hits. Yup, still good.
12

62

67

65.0

61.6

63.0

.487

.507

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

King Felix threw a five-hit shutout, but it was against the Twins so I'm assuming there is some asterisk or something.
13

61

67

61.4

64.4

64.4

.491

.471

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Every offday represents an opportunity in Philadelphia. That's the opportunity to complain about the Phillies without introducing any new supporting evidence.
14

60

67

64.3

64.2

61.8

.493

.473

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Brewers scored nine runs in the ninth inning of the Brewers/Cubs game, raising the cosmic question: Why?
15

68

60

65.1

64.2

62.6

.508

.488

0.1%

12.8%

12.9%

-2.6%

-28.8%

Ah, losing, that most lonely yet familiar and comforting feeling.
16

64

65

67.7

66.6

65.9

.512

.492

1.5%

0.4%

1.9%

-1.1%

-11.1%

Baseball-Reference says that Paul Goldschmidt's nickname is A) Goldy, B) Schmiddy, C) Paul Goldschmidt but said with little quote marks with your hands.
17

62

67

67.8

69.5

70.1

.522

.542

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

-3.2%

Daisuke Matsuzaka: Proof that those little pictures on milk cartons do sometimes work.
18

69

60

68.0

66.8

66.4

.524

.504

21.4%

6.6%

28.0%

-7.6%

-14.1%

Josh Beckett gave up a homer to the first hitter he faced in a Dodgers uniform, and Los Angeles lost 10-0. Beckett gave up only three of the 10, but the rest were probably his fault somehow anyway.
19

70

57

68.1

65.4

66.1

.531

.551

1.9%

40.1%

42.0%

4.2%

18.1%

Brett Anderson came back from Tommy John surgery (his second start, actually) and shut down the Indians. In fairness though, Cleveland didn't have Johnny Damon or Casey Kotchman.
20

71

57

67.5

67.2

66.7

.532

.512

77.1%

4.3%

81.4%

5.5%

16.7%

Giants hitters have been drilled by pitches 22 times this season, last in baseball and 51 times fewer than the MLB-leading Brewers.
21

66

62

66.5

69.5

70.5

.532

.552

0.8%

19.6%

20.4%

-0.2%

-3.3%

This is your daily Mike Trout is Awesome note: Trout has 62.3 BVORP to lead everyone. For reference, second-place Buster Posey clocks in with 51.2.
22

69

58

66.9

69.1

70.0

.541

.561

37.9%

38.2%

76.1%

2.1%

5.2%

The Tigers have 45 stolen bases on the year. That's 0.35 bases stolen a game. If a game goes by and the Tigers don't steal a base, Miguel Cabrera has been known to take a chainsaw to the corner of a bag or two.
23

71

56

71.2

68.1

67.8

.547

.567

62.1%

22.5%

84.6%

-6.4%

2.0%

The White Sox not only lost to the Orioles but to an Orioles team led by Nate McClouth and Lew Ford. That's like losing a drag race to a toddler on a big wheel.
24

70

58

72.1

70.6

71.6

.555

.575

5.5%

55.2%

60.7%

-1.4%

-22.8%

Tampa is 18-22 in one-run games. They're also the fourth team in the AL East with a sub-.500 record in one-run games. The outlier? Baltimore.
25

78

52

73.0

71.1

69.4

.561

.541

90.8%

9.2%

100.0%

1.1%

1.0%

How do you know when things are going your way? Your finesse pitcher with long hair hits one over the wall and you win a game because of that.
26

73

56

73.9

72.0

72.1

.564

.544

14.0%

77.7%

91.7%

-1.5%

1.9%

It's easy to make fun of the Braves running Paul Maholm out there, but much harder when Maholm pitches well. Please, Paul Maholm, pitch worse next time so I can make my dumb joke and go to bed on time. Thanks!
27

74

54

74.2

75.5

76.5

.586

.606

92.7%

6.3%

99.0%

-0.6%

-1.0%

The Yankees have filed a protest over last night's game as closer Rafael Soriano apparently opted out of his contract nano-seconds before Colby Rasmus hit a three-run-homer. Soriano opted back in shortly thereafter.
28

71

57

77.2

77.7

75.1

.588

.568

9.1%

75.2%

84.3%

6.3%

34.5%

The greatest mistake every team in baseball but the Cardinals made in the last 10 years was not signing Matt Holliday.
29

77

50

75.0

75.7

74.0

.594

.575

86.0%

13.8%

99.8%

-0.1%

-0.1%

In solidarity with Stephen Strasburg, GM Mike Rizzo has decided he will step down temporarily from the job of GM and rest. He'll miss the playoffs but should be back from Fiji before next Spring Training.
30

76

52

75.4

79.0

78.2

.603

.622

97.3%

2.6%

99.9%

0.0%

0.1%

MLB.com says Adrian Beltre has hit only seven homers this month. Sure, that's a lot, but I'm pretty sure it's also undercounting by a factor of a thousand.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


3 comments have been left for this article.
stevebro

Hey, the AL already has it's own James Loney. His name is
James Loney.

Aug 28, 2012 11:37 AM
up_image

+6

down_image
 
BP staff member Matt Kory

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt, it's also the centerpiece for the awful cliche I'm using to get through the last 30+ games of this horrible Red Sox season.

Aug 28, 2012 16:12 PM
up_image

0

down_image
 
BP staff member Matt Kory

Still, I +1'd you. Nice catch.

Aug 28, 2012 16:13 PM
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0

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