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Prospectus Hit List for August 27



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 24 Hit List for August 28
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Did you hear about the baseball stuff? Oh man so much baseball stuff!

RkTmWLW1 W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

75

52

74.8

78.3

77.4

.601

.620

97.8%

2.0%

99.8%

-0.2%

0.6%

By it's very nature, hitter hotness comes and goes, but, just for a moment, imagine what a hot Adrian Beltre could do to the record books if he could sustain it for a season? Heck, three months!
2

70

57

76.6

76.8

74.3

.586

.566

9.5%

67.1%

76.6%

14.0%

30.7%

Still the best offense in the National League, the Cardinals lead second-place Colorado and Atlanta by 39 runs. But, if you listen to the breezes coming off the Mississippi you can still hear a voice that sounds like a former manager's. It says, "Buuuuuunt mooooooore..."
3

77

50

75.0

75.7

74.0

.594

.575

84.1%

15.8%

99.9%

0.1%

0.3%

I'm so old I can remember when Bryce Harper was good.
4

74

53

73.8

74.9

76.0

.588

.607

94.0%

5.7%

99.7%

0.5%

-0.1%

Derek Jeter went 0-for-5. He must not be on steroids. Skip Bayless said something nonsensical and testy. He must be on them.
5

73

55

73.7

71.9

72.1

.568

.548

15.9%

76.9%

92.8%

5.7%

4.6%

Today in painfully bad nicknames: Tim Hudson is The Gemologist because he throws gems! How's that headache feeling?
6

70

57

71.7

70.4

71.3

.558

.578

5.3%

57.3%

62.6%

-3.8%

-19.6%

If Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Josh Beckett, all thought to be immovable for different reasons, can get traded, imagine how many times Matt Moore and Evan Longoria could be traded? Maybe theyíre traded all the time and it happens so quickly we donít notice it! Nano-trades!
7

77

52

72.4

70.4

68.7

.559

.539

89.1%

10.0%

99.1%

-0.4%

0.2%

Scott Rolen is hitting .356/.445/.564 since the All-Star break. That's in just 21 fewer plate appearances than he got before the break. Scott Rolen: Not Dead Yet Since As Long As You Can Remember
8

66

62

66.5

69.5

70.5

.532

.552

0.4%

19.7%

20.1%

-6.4%

-1.5%

Mike Trout went 1-for-13 over the weekend. Mike Trout in a slump, even a tiny, tiny, mini-slump, is in a way more interesting than Mike Trout banging out three hits a game.
9

69

58

66.9

69.1

70.1

.541

.561

29.3%

44.3%

73.6%

4.6%

4.3%

Prince Fielder's 23rd homer ties him for 25th on the leaderboard along with Chris Davis, Pedro Alvarez, Corey Hart, A.J. Pierzynski, Mark Teixeira, Matt Holliday, David Ortiz, Adam LaRoche, and Alfonso Soriano. This is not exclusivity.
10

61

67

66.9

68.9

69.6

.520

.540

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

-2.8%

If there is one thing James Loney can do it's put talk of a potential playoff run to bed for good.
11

71

55

70.8

68.0

67.7

.551

.570

70.7%

21.2%

91.9%

3.8%

13.9%

Kevin Youkilis has now played more games for Chicago this season than for Boston, and his OPS for the former is 162 points above his OPS for the latter.
12

69

59

68.6

67.3

66.6

.530

.510

28.4%

8.6%

37.0%

-8.3%

-12.7%

Adrian Gonzalez homered in his first at-bat as a Dodger, the team announced Carl Crawford would undergo thigh replacement surgery, and Josh Beckett told a reporter, "Of [expletive] course, I'm [expletive] happy to [expletive] be here. [expletive] Yeah. [expletive]" All is as it should be, just three hours earlier.
13

71

57

67.5

67.2

66.7

.532

.512

68.9%

6.7%

75.6%

-2.9%

23.3%

These days, when Tim Lincecum makes a start that isn't a total disaster, it's cause for a parade. The Tim Lincecum Was Not A Total Disaster Parade will take place today along the Embarcadero. Paper bags will be provided.
14

64

64

67.3

66.3

65.6

.514

.494

2.7%

0.3%

3.0%

0.4%

-17.5%

It's not much, but Trevor Cahill's strikeout rate is edging upward, to a nearly respectable 6.8 per nine this year.
15

69

57

67.3

64.5

65.2

.528

.548

1.8%

35.5%

37.3%

0.1%

6.3%

Memo to all GMs: Having one of the worst offensive teams in history to compete for the playoffs is not the next market inefficiency.
16

61

67

61.4

64.4

64.5

.491

.471

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If the Phillies can go 21-13 they'll avoid their first losing record since 2002. If they go 34-0 the rest of they way and the Nationals win at their current pace, Philadelphia will lose the division by two games.
17

68

59

64.7

64.1

62.4

.510

.490

1.4%

14.6%

16.0%

-8.6%

-28.7%

Forget the playoffs, the Pirates need to go 14-21 to ensure a winning record. It would be their first since 1992. "Ich bin ein Pittsburgher!"
18

59

69

59.7

63.8

65.0

.483

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Ike Davis hit his 24th homer of the year in the bottom of the ninth inning to win the game in walk-off fashion. This did very little to bring his OBP above .300.
19

59

67

62.7

62.8

60.6

.486

.466

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

The Brewers are four runs away from a positive run differential. If that doesn't motivate a team then I'll have to reprogram my Excel spreadsheet! Ha ha!
20

61

67

64.3

61.1

62.5

.486

.506

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.3%

-0.3%

You have to applaud what the Mariners are doing, even if you do it with both hands tied behind your back in solidarity with the team.
21

59

70

58.4

59.8

58.5

.457

.437

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Prospect Casey Kelly will debut with the Padres today. He was acquired from Boston for Adrian Gonzalez who was traded to the Dodgers for the salary room Boston had before trading him for Casey Kelly.
22

56

70

59.3

57.4

58.7

.459

.479

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Just four Blue Jays have an adjusted OPS better than league average: Bautista (injured), Encarnacion (awesome), Cooper (part-time) and Torrealba (four plate appearances).
23

58

71

53.9

55.4

55.9

.433

.413

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Giancarlo Stanton hit a ball into orbit yesterday. There it collided with and knocked another of his orbiting home run balls out of orbit, whereupon it fell into the second deck of Marlins Park for a home run. It was measured at 437 feet but we know the truth.
24

55

72

50.0

55.1

55.5

.425

.444

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

When MLB.com describes your team as having had a "lone highlight," that's code for "didn't win."
25

56

70

57.7

55.0

54.8

.443

.463

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

How bad are the Royals? They took only two of four from the Red Sox! Time to blow 'em up. Get Ned on the phone.
26

52

75

52.6

54.5

54.9

.421

.441

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Joe Mauer's 20 double plays grounded in to are the third most in baseball and the most by a catcher since I noticed the stat six hours ago.
27

69

57

58.1

54.4

56.2

.472

.492

0.7%

14.2%

14.9%

1.6%

-0.7%

For those of you waiting for the Orioles to fade, Baltimore has posted its best record and best run differential of any month this August.
28

51

75

52.6

50.1

50.2

.405

.385

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Carlos Gonzalez and his home/road splits: the next non-steroid non-total oversight Hall of Fame argument.
29

49

77

52.4

49.2

49.5

.397

.378

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Chris Volstad got the win, his first in the last 24 starts dating back to July 10, 2011. Volstad's teams were 4-19 when he started and, making it more shocking, he didnít pitch for the Astros.
30

40

88

44.6

44.5

44.6

.339

.322

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If it holds, the Astros' .313 winning percentage will be the worst of any team since the 2003 Detroit Tigers finished 43-119 for a .265 mark. (Note: The 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks finished with a .315 winning percentage.)

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
timber

The Royals-Red Sox series isn't over, and they've only played three games.

Aug 27, 2012 07:14 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

I'm predicting the future!

Aug 27, 2012 09:00 AM
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