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Prospectus Hit List for August 22



by Matthew Kory and Sam Miller

Hit List for August 21 Hit List for August 23
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Within: Notes on baseball being interesting.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff% 1-Day7-Day
1

67

56

63.4

62.9

61.2

.517

.497

2.5%

32.3%

34.8%

-7.6%

-0.7%

If there is anyone alive who can stop the Pirates' all-but-inevitable run to post-season glory it's, weirdly, the Padres.
2

67

57

66.1

64.1

63.5

.526

.506

27.0%

8.8%

35.8%

-6.6%

-6.9%

Matt Kemp snapped an 0-for-21 streak.
3

70

53

70.2

68.8

68.9

.565

.545

7.1%

77.4%

84.5%

-4.8%

-4.8%

Like all of us, the Braves are just grateful they got to see Strasburg pitch. "It's beautiful," they all said, while walking back to the dugout, weeping with awe and shame.
4

68

55

69.3

67.4

68.3

.555

.575

5.9%

73.4%

79.3%

-4.3%

24.1%

David Price Flight Status: Arrived
5

62

61

65.6

65.4

64.7

.524

.504

8.4%

2.3%

10.7%

-2.2%

-1.9%

Justin Upton is sixth on his team in home runs, which is crazy enough, but if you put him on the Yankees he would be 11th.
6

59

64

64.7

66.3

67.0

.522

.542

0.0%

2.3%

2.3%

-0.7%

-3.4%

Now, see, this is what we're talking about: With the Red Sox down 5-3, Bobby Valentine pulled his troops together and ordered them to stop scoring runs. Said he had "a plan." Terrible plan! Terrible strategy!
7

65

57

63.7

65.7

66.6

.535

.555

34.3%

36.1%

70.4%

-0.7%

-1.1%

"The Tigers ground into more double plays than any team in the AL, so they'll need to sacrifice bunt a LOT to stay out of those." -- preview of what you're going to hear from Tim McCarver this October.
8

72

51

71.6

72.5

73.6

.589

.608

93.7%

6.0%

99.7%

-0.3%

0.1%

Two facts. Since CC Sabathia went on the DL on August 9th, the Yankees are 8-4. The Yankees are 1-3 when Derek Lowe pitches. I conlcude the Yankees would be better off without pitchers.
9

71

51

69.8

73.9

73.5

.591

.610

97.4%

2.2%

99.6%

-0.2%

0.4%

The AL West standings match up perfectly with run differentials, just as Texas likes it.
10

56

66

58.3

56.6

57.9

.469

.489

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1%

Zero strikeouts, eight walks happens about once a decade: Mike Chris in 1982; Jose Guzman in 1991; Greg Reynolds in 2008; and Ricky Romero, broken beyond recognition, last night.
11

55

70

54.9

55.7

54.7

.441

.421

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If you just look at road stats, the Padres have three hitters with an OPS over .900, and two more over .800.
12

51

71

52.1

53.4

53.3

.430

.450

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

They say major league teams win a third of their games, lose a third of their games, and the last third is what decides who is good and who isn't. Last night fell into the first category.
13

60

64

62.5

59.4

60.7

.489

.509

0.0%

0.3%

0.3%

0.0%

0.2%

Felix Hernandez allowed one run in 7 2/3 innings. You have to be worried about his career trajectory very, very, very recently, right?
14

57

67

52.8

54.1

54.5

.440

.421

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Mets 20 games out; Phillies 20 games out; Marlins 20 games out. Just like we predicted: [link broken]
15

55

67

56.1

54.4

54.2

.450

.470

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

10 shutout innings for Luke Hochevar with an Eric Hosmer single winning it in the tenth. Just for a moment, it feels like someone drew it up that way.
16

39

84

43.3

43.2

43.1

.343

.325

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Brett Wallace turns 26 this week? My word where does the time go. Before you know it, Matt is going to be peppering these comments with jokes about his two boys in college.
17

57

66

58.2

61.1

60.8

.482

.462

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If wins were assigned to pitchers with Game Scores above 50, instead of the way they're assigned now, Cliff Lee would be 15-7.
18

48

73

50.4

48.2

48.4

.403

.384

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Everything Ramon Hernandez needed to know about this season: He's batting cleanup, because his team is garbage; but not playing everyday, because the guy trying to steal his job has been the lone bright spot.
19

54

69

48.6

53.7

54.1

.428

.447

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

From the box score: CS - M Brantley (7, Home by F Hernandez/J Jaso). Those are never as fun as they look in the box score. I'm not even going to check.
20

47

75

49.9

47.2

47.7

.393

.374

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ernie Banks' famous quote, "Let's play two" was clipped. What he actually said was, "Let's play tomorrow. You know, because we're in last place again and I'm tired, man, so how about it?"."
21

77

46

74.1

74.3

72.6

.606

.587

92.9%

7.1%

100.0%

0.1%

0.7%

Stephen Strasburg is like a double rainbow. He's amazing and beautiful and you never know when Mike Rizzo will come out and ruin everything.
22

57

66

57.6

60.6

62.4

.483

.463

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

Ruben Tejada is a 22-year-old shortstop hitting .310. Why, if he played in New York the media hype around him would be ... what's that you say? Oh.
23

56

66

60.2

60.2

58.2

.481

.461

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

Marco Estrada on Tuesday finally got his first win. He has 96 Ks and 20 walks in 95 innings.
24

75

49

70.3

68.5

66.6

.565

.546

93.1%

5.8%

98.9%

0.2%

1.3%

In three weeks, Jonathan Broxton has already allowed half as many runs as a Reds reliever this year as Aroldis Chapman has.
25

63

60

63.9

67.1

67.9

.532

.552

1.4%

22.6%

24.0%

0.5%

-30.5%

Late-season scoreboard-watching adjustments: The Angels gained a game on Texas, which means nothing. They failed to gain a game on Baltimore, which means everything.
26

67

56

56.7

53.0

54.7

.470

.490

0.4%

12.6%

13.0%

0.7%

1.4%

"It's really been a team effort this year. You can't identify just one guy who has been great for us. There's ... uhhhh... well, let me think. There's... Urgh. You can't name one guy, like I said."
27

67

55

68.4

65.3

65.2

.545

.565

65.7%

17.8%

83.5%

1.4%

-0.4%

Kevin Youkilis now crushes the Yankees and the Red Sox. But just in case anyone was wondering, yes, still crushes the Yankees.
28

66

56

65.0

62.3

63.0

.525

.545

1.2%

26.7%

27.9%

3.7%

9.5%

Josh Reddick has hit .178/.218/.315 since the beginning of August. What is it, Universe?! Is his mullet not party-in-the-back enough? Is he not lasering enough runners at third base for you? WHY DO YOU TAUNT US LIKE THIS??
29

68

55

65.2

65.2

64.4

.534

.514

64.6%

8.1%

72.7%

9.0%

12.2%

The difference between this start and many of Lincecum's others is that he survived his one bad inning, somehow: Walk, single, single, single, deep fly to right field led to only one run, and the bullpen bailed him out after that.
30

66

56

72.9

73.4

71.1

.581

.561

4.4%

58.0%

62.4%

11.7%

0.0%

After missing a year for Tommy John surgery, Adam Wainwright has the best strikeout-to-walk rate of his career, and the best walk rate of his career.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here
Sam Miller is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Sam's other articles. You can contact Sam by clicking here


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