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Prospectus Hit List for August 21



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 20 Hit List for August 22
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Angels figured out a way to improve their playoff odds!

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLF Win Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

55

66

59.4

59.5

57.6

.478

.458

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1%

The Brewers are 55-66. They've scored 555 runs and allowed 566. Symmetry is funny!
2

56

67

52.2

53.2

53.6

.437

.417

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Giancarlo Stanton hit a home run into the second deck in left field that the announcer described like this: "the pitch... OH MY GOODNESS!" His partner eventually chimed in with, "WOW!"
3

57

65

57.5

60.2

62.1

.485

.465

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

-0.5%

So much for this nonsense about pitching R.A. Dickey every third day to pimp his resume for award season.
4

54

67

55.5

53.9

53.6

.448

.468

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Royals have winning records in three out of five months but haven't outscored their opponents in any month.
5

39

83

43.5

43.5

43.3

.347

.329

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Today is the 10-day anniversary of the Astros finally winning an extra-inning game. I hope you're celebrating appropriately.
6

47

73

49.6

47.6

47.8

.400

.381

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Yesterday the Rockies played Alex White, Andrew Brown, and Charlie Blackmon. Thatís the right idea. When the playoffs are out of reach, grasp for novelty.
7

54

68

48.5

53.3

53.7

.429

.449

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

Ubaldo Jimenez threw 5 1/3 innings, striking out eight while walking one. Yes he gave up three runs, but losers can't be choosers.
8

57

65

57.8

60.7

60.4

.483

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

A time warp opened up and the 2009 Phillies took the field last night. We know it was them and not the 2012 version because 1) they scored lots of runs, 2) their pitching wasn't very good, and 3) they won.
9

47

74

49.7

47.0

47.5

.395

.376

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Starlin Castro celebrated his new seven-year contract extension by going 0-for-4 with two strikeouts in a loss. Yes... yes... he'll do nicely.
10

54

70

54.2

54.9

53.8

.437

.418

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Edinson Volquez has been working on his mechanics and now they will fix his cars. Also he's pitching better.
11

59

63

64.4

65.9

66.5

.524

.544

0.0%

2.8%

2.8%

-0.2%

-4.7%

The Red Sox fired pitching coach Bob McClure because the team was underperforming but they didn't fire the hitting coach... you know what? Just see yesterday's Astros comment.
12

59

64

61.5

58.9

60.1

.487

.507

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.2%

0.2%

The Mariners have won six in a row. This despite only two hitters in their lineup with batting averages over .250 (one of which is .255).
13

56

65

58.0

56.2

57.4

.470

.490

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

Toronto is 10th in the American League in starter ERA and 13th in reliever ERA. The rest of their pitching staff has been solid.
14

51

70

52.0

53.7

53.6

.434

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Joe Mauer went 3-for-3 with three singles, only one of which can be proven to have come from perfect hair.
15

66

56

56.0

52.5

54.2

.469

.489

0.2%

12.2%

12.4%

-3.1%

2.7%

Scientific tests prove that every time the Orioles lose it slows the process of global warming.
16

65

56

64.2

61.0

61.7

.521

.540

0.3%

23.8%

24.1%

-7.8%

0.5%

Picking up Stephen Drew might seem like a great idea, and maybe it is, but at least this season Drew has a 59 OPS+. Check your optimism at the door.
17

62

60

63.2

66.5

67.2

.530

.550

0.6%

23.2%

23.8%

2.4%

-24.9%

The Angels' playoff odds have dropped from around 80 percent to around 20 percent in two weeks, but moved up by 2.4 percentage points Monday. The team was off.
18

65

56

71.6

72.1

69.9

.576

.556

3.9%

46.7%

50.6%

4.8%

-9.7%

Only a game and a half out of a Wild Card spot. Is there any team in the National League you'd like to face in the playoffs less than St. Louis?
19

67

55

63.1

62.6

61.1

.520

.500

4.0%

38.5%

42.5%

-2.0%

1.6%

Playing a game the day after a 19-inning game is a bit like going for a jog the day after running a marathon. Not surprisingly, the Pirates became the first team to ever lose a jog.
20

68

54

68.8

66.9

67.9

.557

.576

4.7%

79.7%

84.4%

1.9%

20.3%

What happens when you put a Rays team that is 13-4 in August against a team that is... well, actually, it doesn't seem to matter who they play. Win. Next.
21

70

52

70.0

68.5

68.5

.568

.548

7.8%

81.2%

89.0%

0.7%

3.1%

In his last four starts Tim Hudson has 10 walks, two hit batsmen, and 14 strikeouts in 24 innings and yet the Braves are 3-1 in those games. How does he do it? Secret of the pros. [wink]
22

62

60

65.2

65.2

64.6

.527

.507

10.7%

1.9%

12.6%

-8.5%

-4.2%

Joe Saunders' fourth inning: single, single, single, homer, homer, single, fly out, missed bunt pop out, single, single, double. [exeunt]
23

67

56

65.9

63.9

63.2

.529

.509

33.5%

9.3%

42.8%

-6.7%

2.2%

Hanley Ramirez with the Marlins: .246/.322/.428. Hanley Ramirez with the Dodgers:.310/.369/.540. Are Pink's hot dogs worth an extra 160 points of OPS? Hanley says yes!
24

64

57

63.0

65.1

66.1

.533

.553

38.6%

31.4%

70.0%

1.6%

2.8%

The Tigers spent lavishly during the offseason to make their offense above average. This season they are seventh out of 14 teams in the American League in runs scored. Seven and a half would be average, so success!
25

67

55

64.3

64.4

63.6

.531

.511

55.8%

7.9%

63.7%

11.5%

5.2%

Madison Bumgarner's 10 strikeouts and no walks bested Clayton Kershaw's 10 strikeouts and no walks because Bumgarner also didn't give up any runs. Ah HA!
26

66

55

67.5

64.3

64.2

.541

.561

61.4%

21.1%

82.5%

4.5%

2.6%

According to Baseball-Reference, last night marked the very first time Kevin Youkilis has been hit by a pitch thrown by Joba Chamberlain. If true it would mean that Chamberlain has the worst aim in world history.
27

74

49

69.7

67.9

66.0

.564

.544

92.1%

6.8%

98.9%

0.3%

1.8%

Being named Leake isn't the best name for a starting pitcher, but being named LeCure is the best name for a reliever.
28

76

46

73.3

73.6

71.9

.604

.585

92.2%

7.7%

99.9%

0.2%

0.6%

In a world where speed, grit, and dirt float to the top of too many lineups you have to like the Nationals putting some OBP named Jayson Werth in the leadoff spot.
29

72

50

71.5

72.5

73.5

.593

.612

95.1%

4.9%

100.0%

0.1%

0.5%

If Freddy Garcia were a choose your own adventure book you'd quickly reach a point where all options lead to 'home run.'
30

71

50

69.5

73.3

73.0

.592

.612

99.1%

0.7%

99.8%

0.8%

0.4%

David Murphy at home: .364/.435/.576. David Murphy on the road: .259/.349/.416.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
lonechicken

Being named "Chase" isn't a good name for a hitter either.

Aug 21, 2012 10:53 AM
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+2

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BP staff member Matt Kory

You get a +1 for that.

Aug 21, 2012 11:53 AM
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0

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NYYanks826

The Rockies need to sign Mark Redman, Shawn Green and Jeff Gray, as well.

Aug 21, 2012 15:38 PM
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+1

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BP staff member Matt Kory

If only!!

Aug 21, 2012 16:05 PM
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0

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