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Prospectus Hit List for August 20



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 17 Hit List for August 21
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Angels' playoff odds drop below Oakland's for the first time.

RkTmWLW1W2W3 HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

75

46

72.7

73.3

71.5

.604

.585

86.6%

13.2%

99.8%

0.3%

0.7%

Bryce Harper, hitless in eight of his last 11 games, tripled and homered. Sure, he did strike out and take out his anger on the priceless Ming vase that manager Davey Johnson has displayed in the tunnel to the clubhouse, but homer and triple.
2

72

49

71.4

72.3

73.4

.597

.616

94.8%

5.1%

99.9%

0.1%

0.9%

The Yankees hit eight homers against Boston pitching during their three-game weekend series. All eight were solo homers. Didn't matter, New York won two of three anyway.
3

70

50

68.6

72.2

72.0

.589

.608

96.7%

2.5%

99.2%

-0.4%

-0.7%

Michael Young homered, which marked the first time in a while that he helped the team tangibly.
4

65

56

71.6

72.1

69.9

.576

.556

3.6%

42.6%

46.2%

-12.7%

-9.6%

Losing a 19-inning game is like reenacting that scene in The Naked Gun where O.J. Simpson gets shot, bangs his head on a pipe, burns his hand on a stove, gets paint on his jacket, gets his fingers caught in a window, falls into a wedding cake, steps on a bear trap, and falls off the ship into the ocean.
5

74

48

70.0

68.2

66.5

.571

.551

92.2%

6.1%

98.3%

0.8%

2.1%

The Reds have used only five starters all season before starting Todd Redmond on Saturday. Dusty Baker is asleep at the wheel!
6

70

51

69.6

67.9

67.8

.569

.549

13.4%

75.1%

88.5%

-4.4%

-1.3%

Surprisingly the Durbin Rule, that being the team with the most Durbins wins, didn't hold up for Sunday night's game.
7

67

54

67.9

65.7

66.7

.552

.572

5.0%

77.2%

82.2%

8.3%

29.6%

With last night's win the Rays have now won 22 of their last 20 games despite being no-hit in each game.
8

65

55

66.7

63.5

63.3

.539

.559

59.3%

18.7%

78.0%

-3.5%

-4.0%

The great thing about Adam Dunn is it's news when he homers because he homered, it's news when he strikes out because, wow, Adam Dunn struck out again, and it's news when he does neither because, seriously? He didn't strike out or homer?
9

62

59

65.7

65.9

65.2

.535

.515

16.2%

4.7%

20.9%

10.3%

7.6%

In seven games totaling 6 2/3 innings since coming over from Boston, Matt Albers has eight strikeouts and no runs allowed. This is what happens when you stop playing for the Red Sox.
10

64

57

63.0

65.1

66.1

.533

.553

40.7%

28.0%

68.7%

-6.1%

-3.8%

Doug Fister's second-worst start of the year was followed by Doug Fister's second-worst totally awesome night of being a pitcher for a major-league baseball team.
11

66

55

63.7

64.0

63.1

.531

.511

42.4%

9.9%

52.3%

-17.3%

-16.2%

To use a metaphor Melky Cabrera would understand, Melky Cabrera isn't the brightest tool in the picnic shed.
12

62

60

63.2

66.5

67.2

.530

.550

1.1%

20.3%

21.4%

-7.3%

-36.0%

Sunday's game was the first time the Angels have lost a game in which both Albert Pujols and Mike Trout homered. Since Saturday.
13

67

55

65.5

63.3

62.6

.530

.510

41.4%

7.6%

49.0%

11.8%

20.4%

There are moments in a career that have to cause a player to question himself. Being pinch-hit for by James Loney is unquestionably one of those moments.
14

65

55

64.2

61.2

62.0

.526

.546

2.2%

29.9%

32.1%

6.3%

11.1%

Sure Jarrod Parker pitched well again yesterday, but the A's should have some reservations about using him in the postseason, owing to his 27.00 postseason ERA in 1/3 of an inning pitched.
15

59

63

64.4

65.9

66.5

.524

.544

0.0%

2.5%

2.5%

-2.6%

-4.5%

Craig Breslow pitching to Ryan Lavarnway, created the Red Sox' first all-Yale battery and the first in the majors since the 1880s. Hope this works out better than the all-University of Phoenix battery.
16

67

54

62.8

62.3

60.9

.523

.503

4.2%

40.5%

44.7%

11.0%

-3.8%

One of the great things about a 19-inning game is that someone somewhere will have gone 0-for-8. Last night catcher Michael McKenry was that guy.
17

57

64

57.2

59.6

61.6

.486

.467

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

It took Kelly Shoppach three days to send an angry text message to Mets ownership. This was about the sub-quality deli meats offered in the post-game spread. Shoppach has since been traded to the Twins for the rights to Gary Gaetti.
18

58

64

60.8

58.1

59.4

.484

.504

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1%

0.1%

A sad reality to face: the Mariners aren't nearly as interesting when not throwing perfect games.
19

56

65

56.5

59.5

59.0

.477

.457

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Kyle Kendrick threw seven innings of scoreless three-hit, eight-strikeout ball. Clearly the baseball gods saw a pitcher with a "P" on his cap and imbued him with amazing powers without checking the back of the uniform.
20

54

66

58.5

58.5

56.7

.474

.454

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

Milwaukee used three pitchers in last night's game. All had ERAs over five. Guess how many runs the Brewers gave up? More than five!
21

66

55

55.9

52.6

54.2

.473

.493

0.2%

15.7%

15.9%

5.4%

7.6%

The Orioles are 15-16 against the four AL teams in line to make the playoffs if the season ended today. Which it doesn't. Never mind.
22

56

65

58.0

56.2

57.4

.470

.490

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

Manager John Farrell is being asked about his interest in managing the Red Sox next season which is like jumping off the Lusitania and onto the Titanic. "So long sucker uh oh..."
23

54

66

55.4

54.1

53.8

.453

.473

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jeff Francoeur, who walked three times on Saturday, the most he's ever had in a game in his eight-year career, isn't turning over any new leaves. Two walks were intentional. Credit him for not swinging at intentional balls though.
24

53

70

53.5

54.3

53.2

.435

.415

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

According to his splits, Clayton Richard not only doesn't like pitching outside of Petco Park, he isn't good in night games, he hates pitching in April and July, he doesn't like right-handed hitters, and he can't pitch with runners in scoring position. Other than that though.
25

54

67

48.2

53.0

53.5

.431

.451

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1%

On July 26, the Indians were 50-49, three games out of a Wild Card spot. Since then they have gone 4-18. They are now much farther out of a Wild Card spot.
26

50

70

51.0

52.6

52.5

.429

.449

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Getting swept by the Mariners even though you didn't face Felix Hernandez is like failing a test in your dreams even though you managed to show up on time and not naked.
27

55

67

50.7

51.4

51.9

.428

.409

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The 2012 Marlins don't have much but they'll always have Giancarlo Stanton's two Colorado homers. Anyone watching Miami play in Colorado from the outfield seats might seriously consider donning riot gear.
28

46

73

48.9

47.2

47.5

.398

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies lost two more players to injury. It almost makes you think they should ride to the park in Popemobiles and have someone check their food.
29

47

73

49.6

47.0

47.5

.398

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If the season ended today the Cubs would be happy.
30

39

83

43.5

43.5

43.3

.347

.329

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros fired their manager, their hitting coach, and their first-base coach. They did not fire their third-base coach because going 39-82 clearly isn't his fault. That'd be silly.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


10 comments have been left for this article.
rcrary

"Clearly the baseball gods saw a pitcher with a "P" on his cap and imbued him with amazing powers without checking the back of the uniform."

These gods must have been otherwise occupied for most of this season.

(also, it was 8 shut-out innings, 7 strikeouts for Kendrick)

Aug 20, 2012 07:58 AM
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Shaun P.

Not sure which comment I loved more: the Cubs or the Astros. Saved the best for last, clearly!

Aug 20, 2012 08:14 AM
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Ric Size

Ditto.

Aug 20, 2012 14:13 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Thanks!

Aug 20, 2012 14:39 PM
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Cyyoung55

Why are the Angels are ranked 9th?...ahead of the Dodgers,Braves, A's, or Giants. Curious why the Red Sox would be so high too?

Aug 20, 2012 09:15 AM
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gweedoh565

Math.

Aug 20, 2012 09:47 AM
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stevebro

Matt, we were wrong. There is no honor amoung cheaters.

Aug 20, 2012 11:49 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

I thought about that when I heard about the fake website! Oh well. We can only speak with knowledge of the information available. That's why it's important to allow for the fact that we could be wrong. Which I was. Wasn't the first time but it'll be the last! For sure!

Aug 20, 2012 13:24 PM
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OonBoon

The real question is did you have to rewatch that Naked Gun bit or are you my new best friend?

Aug 20, 2012 15:55 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

I re-watched it. But I wrote it out before re-watching it then re-watched to be sure I got the order right.

Aug 20, 2012 16:32 PM
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