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Prospectus Hit List for August 17



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 16 Hit List for August 20
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Matt finds evidence the Rangers are good and the Astros are bad.

RkTmWL W1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

39

80

43.7

43.1

42.8

.354

.336

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

One good stat: the Astros pitchers lead the majors in strikeouts. No, wait, that's for hitters. Never mind.
2

45

71

47.5

45.9

46.2

.398

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If putting the baseball in a humidor before games isn't working, why don't they try hot-boxing it?
3

54

64

47.9

52.8

53.4

.441

.461

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1%

According to Manny Acta, the Indians know they won't win this season. Acta's plan calls for playing young guys, replacing the Indians flag with a white flag, and putting a giant bag over the head of Chief Wahoo. Asked about the last point he said, "Oh that's separate. I hate that offensive little thing."
4

46

70

48.1

45.3

45.7

.399

.380

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs have a losing record at home, on the road, in one-run games, in extra-inning games, against every division in baseball, against right-handed pitchers, and against left-handed pitchers. They have yet to face an ambidextrous pitcher.
5

53

66

49.1

49.7

50.6

.425

.406

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The box score shows Giancarlo Stanton and Carlos Lee both homering, but they couldn’t have been more different. Stanton's was a shot that would have pierced the hull of a battleship. Lee's was hit higher than it was far, falling just over the outfield wall.
6

50

67

50.2

52.0

52.2

.437

.457

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins have made more outs on the ground than any team in baseball. That's by design of course. Twins baseball: perfecting the weak groundout since 1990-ish.
7

52

68

52.3

53.3

52.0

.437

.417

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The player with the highest batting average in the Padres starting lineup last night? Jason Marquis, professional pitcher.
8

51

66

52.8

51.0

50.9

.440

.460

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Kansas City pitching struck out nine of the final 15 A's batters in the game. Only one hitter put the ball in play and made an out after Coco Crisp's homer in the sixth inning.
9

64

54

54.3

51.4

52.8

.471

.491

0.6%

8.5%

9.1%

-4.6%

-0.6%

Mark Reynolds stats against Boston this season are rivaled only by his stats against Seattle. Except, no. Turns out Reynolds’ OPS against the Mariners is about the same as his slugging percentage against the Red Sox.
10

54

64

54.5

57.6

57.3

.473

.453

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Cliff Lee struck out 12, walked no one, and lost. Is this one of those sitcom re-runs that I keep seeing every time I turn on the television at odd times?
11

56

62

56.1

58.2

59.9

.488

.468

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.4%

It used to be if Jason Bay homered against you it was like being bested in a fair fight. Now it's like getting knocked out and then someone stands over you and spits in your open eye.
12

55

63

57.4

55.9

56.8

.477

.497

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.3%

According to a headline, Jose Bautista is close to being activated. I wasn't aware he had been deactivated.
13

53

64

57.5

57.3

55.7

.478

.458

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Brewers record by month: under .500 by one game, under .500 by four games, under .500 by two games, under .500 by two games.
14

55

64

58.5

55.5

56.6

.474

.494

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

-0.1%

Of all the days to have off, this one was nice. Also, more time to print t-shirts!
15

65

53

61.0

60.2

58.6

.518

.498

2.8%

28.2%

31.0%

9.1%

-22.7%

Can the Pirates play with the big boys? That depends on who the big boys are. If it's the Dodgers then yes. If it's Ethan and Jacob in playgroup then they can't play with their Lighting McQueen toys, no.
16

62

55

61.4

58.2

59.0

.514

.534

0.7%

18.1%

18.8%

5.0%

-7.9%

One of these days, Chris Carter. One of these days your B-Ref page will be Google's first B-Ref page for Chris Carter.
17

63

55

61.6

63.4

64.6

.535

.555

31.7%

44.1%

75.8%

0.8%

4.3%

So far the lessons of the Prince Fielder contract are 1) $214 million can solve a lot of problems in the AL Central, and 2) $214 million can create a lot of problems anywhere.
18

64

54

61.8

62.0

61.1

.527

.507

45.7%

7.2%

52.9%

1.8%

-8.9%

By OPS and runs scored the Giants are just below middle-of-the-pack offensively.
19

59

59

62.4

63.2

62.7

.524

.504

12.7%

1.8%

14.5%

4.7%

-7.0%

Sure they won last night, but what have the Diamondbacks ever given you?
20

65

54

63.1

61.3

60.5

.525

.505

41.6%

6.3%

47.9%

-5.8%

21.0%

A list of people/things the umpires at last night's Dodgers game should have ejected: 1) the price of beer, 2) any announcer whose name doesn't rhyme with Vin Scully, 3) themselves.
21

58

61

63.1

65.3

65.6

.529

.549

0.1%

3.5%

3.6%

0.7%

-3.3%

Clay Buchholz's perfect inning (three consecutive three-pitch strikeouts) was an odd interlude in a season that is falling apart like Bobby Valentine’s heart monitor.
22

62

57

63.4

65.9

66.5

.542

.561

4.4%

41.4%

45.8%

-13.3%

-23.1%

Dan Haren has given up homers in 10 consecutive starts.
23

64

54

64.7

63.2

64.1

.542

.562

2.6%

54.4%

57.0%

7.1%

21.6%

At least the Rays managed a few baserunners today. Baby steps.
24

68

49

66.1

69.5

69.3

.583

.602

94.9%

4.3%

99.2%

0.5%

-0.4%

In an unfortunate incident, a man took a swing at Josh Hamilton. Hamiton ducked, swung at the man's knees and knocked his head clean off.
25

65

52

66.3

63.6

63.6

.552

.572

68.3%

22.5%

90.8%

4.0%

9.4%

They say that after a while people start to take on the personalities of those around them. Today the White Sox hit five homers and struck out seven times. They're turning into Adam Dunn!
26

71

47

67.5

65.9

64.7

.570

.550

90.9%

8.0%

98.9%

-0.4%

8.2%

The Reds are 46-7 when Aroldis Chapman takes the mound this season. Impressive, and yet it's those seven that will keep me up at night.
27

69

49

69.0

66.9

66.7

.575

.556

18.1%

74.9%

93.0%

1.0%

11.0%

Not sure what's more impressive, that Chipper Jones hit two homers, one of which was his 2,700th career hit, or that fans were there to cheer for those things.
28

70

48

69.6

69.9

70.8

.594

.613

96.7%

3.1%

99.8%

0.1%

0.5%

Derek Jeter has nine homers, 24 doubles, and 126 singles. Guess which he likes best!
29

64

54

70.4

71.1

68.8

.581

.562

6.3%

55.7%

62.0%

-10.5%

-2.1%

Kyle Lohse has a 2.81 ERA, causing a good quarter of the American public to look elsewhere for joke material.
30

73

45

70.8

71.6

69.9

.604

.585

81.9%

17.8%

99.7%

0.1%

0.9%

After shutting down Stephen Strasburg the Nationals will start him right back up again. "Never said I wouldn't," sing-songed Mike Rizzo.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
ahemmer

In honor of Carlos Lee's homerun, I present his homerun totals by season:

16, 24, 24, 26, 31, 31, 32, 37, 32, 28, 26, 24, 18, 7

A consistent rise, and consistent fall. The perfect career arc?

Aug 17, 2012 08:55 AM
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+4

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stevebro

Wow, no noise at all in that data set, huh?

Aug 17, 2012 13:35 PM
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0

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