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Prospectus Hit List for August 15



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 14 Hit List for August 16
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Extremely important observations about baseball within.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day 7-Day
1

63

53

62.9

62.1

63.0

.541

.561

2.5%

53.1%

55.6%

-8.0%

33.3%

Since returning from injury Evan Longoria has hit .261/.308/.304. Somewhere in the dark recesses of the universe this is helping the Rays win.
2

64

53

61.9

60.0

59.3

.524

.504

36.4%

6.6%

43.0%

2.5%

18.5%

James Loney is like certain kinds of algae. When they thrive, you know something awful has happened.
3

67

49

66.8

64.6

64.5

.567

.547

19.2%

69.8%

89.0%

3.1%

10.1%

Dan Uggla is hitting .213/.345/.373, so that makes it all that much more important to note when he does well. Last night he hit a home run. Noted.
4

70

46

66.4

64.2

63.0

.568

.548

89.8%

7.9%

97.7%

0.6%

4.1%

Jay Bruce waited until the ninth inning to hit his three-run homer because he hates beat writers.
5

72

45

70.1

70.7

68.9

.602

.582

80.8%

18.6%

99.4%

0.1%

2.9%

There's no lost honor in losing to Madison Bumgarner.... Well sure, seven other teams have beat him. But no that doesn't matter. Yes, I know you want to be like your friends... Well if your friends jumped off the Golden Gate Bridge would you do it to?
6

63

53

53.4

50.7

52.1

.472

.492

0.2%

11.1%

11.3%

0.9%

2.4%

Did Dan Duquette scoop the baseball world when he signed Wei-Yin Chen to a three-year, $11.4 million deal? It looks like it, but don't worry. He'll give Jeff Keppinger a four-year, $44 million contract soon enough.
7

69

47

68.9

69.0

69.8

.596

.615

97.1%

2.5%

99.6%

0.0%

2.3%

On the road Curtis Granderson has 10 doubles, 2 triples, and 12 homers. In roughly the same number of plate appearances at home, Granderson has 18 homers, two doubles and a triple. Someone likes Yankee Stadium!
8

52

65

47.5

48.2

49.3

.421

.401

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Phillies Fan: Facing Kyle Kendrick for seven innings and failing to score a single run must mean you have the worst offense in baseball. Marlins Fan: Nope. Second worst.
9

50

65

52.1

50.1

50.0

.440

.459

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In 90 innings with Colorado, Jeremy Guthrie had a 6.35 ERA. In 31 1/3 with Kansas City he has a 4.02 ERA. So basically getting out of Colorado helped? Hmm... Someone should look in to that.
10

39

79

43.7

43.4

43.1

.358

.340

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Last night's 10-1 win over the Cubs was the second-largest Astros win of the year, behind the 12-0 April 22 win over the Dodgers. This means that as far as the 2012 Astros go, may as well party in the streets tonight, Houston, because beating the Cubs was kinda it.
11

43

71

46.3

44.9

45.4

.394

.375

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Dexter Fowler leads baseball with 11 triples and, in fact, the Rockies lead all teams with 40 triples. In an unrelated story the Rockies are looking into allowing major airlines to fly from one side of the park to the other.
12

54

62

54.5

57.1

56.8

.479

.460

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

Question: How much longer can I make jokes about Ryan Howard's contract? Answer: Well, there are four years left on the deal, so...
13

45

70

47.1

43.9

44.4

.392

.373

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs should be used to getting smoked at this point, but getting smoked by the Houston Astros, losing 10-1, should be a new low. And it is. So there ya go.
14

52

66

52.6

53.6

52.1

.445

.426

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The reason the Padres lost 6-0 to the Braves last night was because their closer, Huston Street, is on the disabled list.
15

50

66

50.1

52.1

52.2

.441

.460

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

2012 Twins MVP Ballot: 1) Josh Willingham, 2) TC Bear, 3) David Ortiz
16

54

64

57.9

54.5

55.6

.470

.490

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1%

New York media reporting Mariners in talks to trade Felix Hernandez to the Yankees for Ichiro.
17

52

63

56.3

56.3

54.8

.477

.457

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1%

The Brewers haven't walked since Jonathan Lucroy took a base on balls in the sixth inning of Monday's game. Is that unusual? Maybe. Is that good? Nope.
18

54

63

47.8

52.9

53.5

.445

.465

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.0%

-0.1%

At 54-62, the Indians still have a chance to win 100 games. It'll take Brent Lillibridge homering just about every day to get there though. Fortunately that doesn't seem to be any kind of problem.
19

67

48

64.8

68.4

68.0

.583

.602

94.0%

5.2%

99.2%

-0.5%

-0.4%

The Rangers had just two hits last night off Hiroki Kuroda. They may as well have let their horse mascot hit... actually I'm being told he did. He went 0-for-2.
20

63

52

64.4

61.6

61.7

.545

.565

61.2%

22.3%

83.5%

3.4%

-0.5%

What does it say about a team that wins a game because the opposing pitcher launched a pickoff throw 20 feet over the first baseman's head? It says they're smart and prepared enough to accept charity.
21

55

61

55.2

58.0

59.4

.490

.470

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.3%

-0.9%

Ike Davis does three things: 1) he hits the occasional home run, 2) he makes outs, and possibly the most valuable of the group 3) he has the name Ike.
22

55

61

57.3

55.9

56.6

.484

.504

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

-1.0%

Henderson Alvarez threw a good game but a bad pickoff. Anthony Gose is now a pinch-runner and Jeff Mathis got a two-year contract extension. Can you taste the flavor of Blue Jays Country? If so, do you need a cup of water?
23

64

53

61.5

61.9

61.0

.531

.511

53.2%

7.3%

60.5%

2.2%

-1.8%

We're getting towards season's end and Melky Cabreera is still hitting .346. Clearly we're all going to have to confront some uncomfortable truths about ourselves, and probably in a public place as well.
24

63

53

69.1

69.8

67.4

.580

.561

8.0%

54.0%

62.0%

1.5%

-4.2%

Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina is working on a pitch-framing technique for when he is at bat. It's top secret but it sounds like only people named Molina and Mathis will be able to pull it off.
25

57

60

62.0

64.0

64.4

.529

.548

0.2%

5.7%

5.9%

-1.4%

-5.3%

The Orioles got seven hits. The Red Sox got 10. The Orioles got seven runs. Boston got one. The 2012 Boston Red Sox: getting the least out of the most since, uh, 2012.
26

61

54

60.1

57.3

58.1

.514

.534

1.0%

17.4%

18.4%

-5.4%

-5.7%

In the grand tradition of Disco Night, the A's announced Blow Our Chance At A Wild Card night. It's scheduled for sometime later in September.
27

62

55

60.7

62.3

63.6

.531

.551

38.7%

32.7%

71.4%

4.9%

-6.7%

Gerald Laird tripled. This is not as uncommon as you think. Over his career, Laird triples once every 262 plate appearances. He's got 132 so far this season so he's a bit ahead of schedule.
28

58

58

61.6

62.4

61.8

.526

.506

10.4%

2.4%

12.8%

-3.9%

-9.7%

Ian Kennedy made two fielding errors, which helped runs score on the pitcher, Ian Kennedy. Yet the pitcher, Ian Kennedy, doesn't get credit for those runs even though Ian Kennedy the fielder and Ian Kennedy the pitcher are the same Ian Kennedy.
29

61

56

62.7

64.8

65.5

.543

.563

5.0%

49.8%

54.8%

6.2%

-18.2%

Your major-league leader in stolen bases? Why, Albert Pujols, of course! No, just kidding. It's Mike Trout.
30

64

52

60.2

59.4

57.8

.520

.500

2.2%

33.3%

35.5%

-5.6%

-18.9%

When Andrew McCutchen goes 0-for-4 on the night that's like engine not working in a race car. It's theoretically possible to still win in that scenario, but pushing the car for 500 laps is pretty hard.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
Nickus

Looks like it's Melky who has to face some uncomfortable truths in public:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120815&content_id=36734312&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

Aug 15, 2012 12:52 PM
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