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Prospectus Hit List for August 14



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 13 Hit List for August 15
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Angels' playoff odds drop below 50 percent for the first time since June 6.

RkTm WLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

72

44

70.1

71.0

69.2

.608

.589

86.2%

13.1%

99.3%

0.2%

4.7%

[puts envelope to head] Throw left-handed. [opens envelope] What Stephen Strasburg will do after he gets shut down.
2

69

46

65.5

63.0

61.9

.564

.544

88.1%

8.8%

96.9%

0.7%

1.7%

[amazing joey votto factoid proving he is a better hitter than you thought he was] Pretty impressive, huh?
3

68

47

68.1

67.7

68.4

.592

.611

94.3%

5.2%

99.5%

0.3%

1.3%

Derek Lowe threw four shutout innings in his Yankees debut. The Yankees have also signed Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield because ha ha how does last place taste, suckers?
4

67

47

64.6

68.6

68.1

.588

.608

94.9%

4.6%

99.5%

-0.4%

0.5%

Michael Young got preemptively upset about the Rangers not re-signing him. "I'm a team guy," Young said, while trashing the locker room. "I don't understand why this organization doesn't get that."
5

66

49

65.6

63.5

63.6

.562

.543

13.8%

72.0%

85.8%

-3.6%

8.0%

Jason Heyward has 14 steals in night games but only one in day games. Why? Because, as any criminal will tell you, people can't see as well in the dark!
6

64

51

61.0

59.6

57.8

.527

.507

5.6%

36.7%

42.3%

-6.5%

-12.5%

On June 1, Pedro Alvarez was hitting .205/.263/.424. Since then he has hit .255/.339/.490.
7

63

52

62.5

61.6

62.5

.543

.562

4.7%

58.9%

63.6%

11.3%

46.4%

The Rays have won seven in a row. For folks in Boston, Detroit, Toronto, and Anaheim, this is what is known as "making a run."
8

63

53

60.1

58.8

58.2

.517

.497

34.0%

5.7%

39.7%

11.1%

3.1%

James Loney, a first baseman, has been caught stealing more than he has homered.
9

63

53

60.4

60.6

59.6

.525

.505

51.5%

6.9%

58.4%

-10.3%

3.8%

By giving up eight runs in 2 2/3 innings, Ryan Vogelsong was just doing his Tim Lincecum impression. Uncanny likeness.
10

62

52

63.7

61.4

61.5

.545

.565

64.2%

15.8%

80.0%

-2.1%

-8.6%

Not only did Adam Dunn hit two homers and not strikeout, but the two players above him in the order and two players below him struck out a combined nine times. Whatever Dunn has is A) catching, but B) curable.
11

62

53

68.0

68.8

66.3

.576

.557

6.3%

53.5%

59.8%

3.7%

-9.4%

The Cardinals are 25th in baseball with a 4.37 bullpen ERA. We may be a step closer to unraveling the mystery as to why the Cardinals aren't as good as we think they should be.
12

62

53

52.3

50.2

51.6

.470

.490

0.6%

10.1%

10.7%

2.6%

3.3%

The Orioles are still tied for a Wild Card spot. Who would they pitch in the play-in game scenario? Wei-Lin Chen? Miguel Gonzalez?
13

61

53

60.2

57.2

58.0

.518

.538

2.2%

21.0%

23.2%

1.8%

8.2%

Isnít it funny how, by winning a few extra baseball games, your perception of every single move the Aís made during the offseason is changed?
14

61

55

59.8

61.2

62.5

.527

.547

35.8%

31.1%

66.9%

-5.6%

-11.6%

Anibal Sanchez has provided the Tigers with a 7.97 ERA in 20 1/3 innings of work. Fortunately all the Tigers gave up for him is their most prized young pitching prospect. Dodged the proverbial bullet there!
15

60

56

61.9

64.1

64.8

.540

.560

2.9%

46.0%

48.9%

-8.7%

-32.9%

Albert Pujols' slugging percentage by month: .304, .491, .568, .660, .588.
16

58

57

61.7

62.4

61.8

.530

.510

14.5%

2.7%

17.2%

4.3%

1.0%

At 8-17, the Diamondbacks aren't winning many one-run games. Why? Fifty-six percent of Diamondbacks polled answered ďnot important enough.Ē
17

57

59

62.1

63.5

63.9

.531

.551

0.4%

6.9%

7.3%

0.6%

-5.7%

Johnny Pesky passed away yesterday. This really hasn't been the best of seasons for the Red Sox.
18

55

60

56.9

55.1

55.9

.485

.505

0.0%

0.3%

0.3%

0.2%

-0.6%

MLB.com reported that injured All-Star outfielder Jose Bautista has begun "taking swings." Presumably he's taking swings at his replacement, Anthony Gose, whose .492 OPS is 42 points below Bautista's slugging percentage.
19

55

60

55.0

58.1

59.4

.495

.475

0.0%

0.5%

0.5%

0.4%

-0.5%

The Angels called up Mike Trout. Then the Nationals called up Bryce Harper. The Orioles called up Manny Machado. Now the Rangers are considering calling up Jurickson Profar. Not to be outdone, the Mets are considering calling up your unborn son. Oh, you didnít know about that? Sorry.
20

54

62

47.5

52.7

53.2

.447

.467

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.2%

Yes, Brent Lillibridge homered for the second time in two days, but the man has played in 72 games this season and has four walks. There's a reason he's played for three teams this season and hasn't posted an OBP above .300 for any of them.
21

53

64

57.2

54.0

55.1

.469

.489

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

At this point the Mariners might be better off giving Chone Figgins and his .186/.259/.282 slash line the remainder of his $8 million salary and hoping his expert out-making skills will get him out of their sight.
22

53

62

53.9

56.5

56.4

.478

.458

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

Cole Hamels hasn't given up a run in 22 innings. Apparently he likes making $144 million. Weirdo.
23

52

62

56.0

56.3

54.7

.480

.460

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

When your first reliever goes as many innings as the starter and then the third reliever goes more than either, well, that's probably bad.
24

52

65

52.8

53.7

52.0

.450

.430

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It's been a lost season for Cameron Maybin, who has seen his OPS drop 100 points over last season. However, just between you and me, if Maybin checks behind the sofa he'll find his plate discipline and his power is behind the cottage cheese in the fridge.
25

52

64

47.2

47.9

49.0

.422

.403

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With his most recent 0-for-3 John Buck nudged his OBP below .300. Not that his previous mark of .302 was good, but according to Buck, it just wasn't aesthetically honest.
26

50

65

50.0

52.2

52.3

.445

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins may have something on their hands with Samuel Deduno, who is 4-0, with 28 strikeouts, and 30 walks, in 40 innings...? Nope. Never mind.
27

49

65

51.1

49.2

49.2

.435

.455

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Royals are the first guy into the haunted house in every slasher film ever done. "No, don't worry. We know it looks bad, but everything is just fine [head gets cut off]"
28

45

69

47.5

44.3

44.8

.398

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I was hoping that showing you an anagram of Jeff Samardzija would finally prove the great conspiracy, but alas it just spells Fazed If Jam Jars.
29

42

71

45.6

44.0

44.5

.390

.371

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It always seems like Dexter Fowler should have more steals than he does, and here's my proof: He has more triples than steals, for the third year in a row.
30

38

79

42.3

42.1

42.0

.351

.333

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros won 7-1. No, Matt, you say, Houston LOST 7-1. Nope. They won 7-1 but they're so bad they reversed all math.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


6 comments have been left for this article.
R.A.Wagman

With Sanchez sucking, the Tigers are on the receiving end of a baseball version of Montezuma's revenge. Last year's Fister food tasted great, but Anibal this year means diarrhea. (incidentally, the word may be harder to spell than it is to pass)

Aug 14, 2012 06:54 AM
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HonusCobb

As much as I like Mike Trout, all the preseason hype for the Angels, and all the hype a couple weeks ago, has me rooting for them not to make the postseason.

Aug 14, 2012 07:30 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

I'm no Angels fan (I'm not a hater either) but if you ask me do I want to see Mike Trout on the biggest stage Baseball has to offer? Yes. A million times yes.

Aug 14, 2012 16:17 PM
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stevebro

Hey Matt,
This might be your best performance of the year. I give you four stars for your lines on the Yanks, Chisox, Tigers, Braves, Giants, Dodgers and Royals. Wow, that's quite a days work.

Aug 14, 2012 13:46 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Thanks, Steve!

Aug 14, 2012 16:16 PM
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Drakos

Maybin's walk rate is up, K rate is down, he's swinging at less pitches out of the zone and is making more contact so I'm not entirely sure that plate discipline is the problem. His biggest problem in terms of OBP is the fact that his BABIP is down over 70 points from last year. But yes, his power is down.

Aug 15, 2012 06:59 AM
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