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Prospectus Hit List for August 8



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 7 Hit List for August 9
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

You don't have to be old to be lousy.

RkTmWLW1W2 W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

64

45

62.4

66.2

65.7

.592

.612

88.5%

11.0%

99.5%

0.4%

2.2%

Ryan Dempster managed to give up a double to seemingly every other hitter but never paid for it. Ryan Dempster is a doubles thief.
2

60

50

66.8

66.8

64.5

.587

.567

16.1%

50.1%

66.2%

-2.1%

9.9%

How much does Run Differential matter? Not enough for the third-place, out-of-the-playoffs-if-they-started-today but best-run-differential-having Cardinals.
3

63

46

63.5

63.3

63.9

.582

.601

94.5%

3.0%

97.5%

-0.7%

0.1%

Eric Chavez's .280/.338/.511 line is shockingly comparable to his best seasons in Oakland. The difference is that now when he plays it’s against right-handed pitchers and minus his super-sweet goatee.
4

67

43

64.6

65.4

63.7

.592

.573

73.2%

23.2%

96.4%

1.7%

2.6%

What if rookies were treated like babies? Bryce Harper breaking bats over home plate would be “The cutest thing I ever saw!” and “Adorable!” and “Awwwwww wooky wittle bay-bay’s angry. It’s okay wittle bay-bay.” That would be awesome.
5

59

52

60.4

62.0

62.9

.550

.570

11.1%

62.3%

73.4%

-8.9%

-11.1%

Mike Trout
6

55

56

58.8

60.6

61.1

.530

.550

1.2%

9.9%

11.1%

-1.7%

-15.0%

How far the mighty have fallen: Jon Lester's sub-5.00 ERA over his last three starts is almost cause for a parade.
7

60

50

58.1

59.7

60.7

.542

.562

40.6%

37.6%

78.2%

0.8%

27.6%

The Tigers won. Said manager Jim Leyland, "[expletive] [expletive] the [expletive] of [expletive] that [expletive] [expletive]. [expletive]"
8

63

47

61.9

60.5

60.5

.559

.539

26.7%

51.8%

78.5%

0.2%

-6.4%

The Braves' hopes of contention next season may rest upon whether or not Chipper Jones' wife can tolerate him around the house this summer.
9

60

49

61.1

59.0

59.3

.549

.569

59.3%

24.7%

84.0%

-4.2%

-1.0%

In six games this month, Adam Dunn has struck out eight times. Yup, still got it.
10

56

54

59.7

60.1

59.1

.534

.514

19.8%

2.2%

22.0%

5.9%

-1.0%

The Diamondbacks have played in just two extra-inning games this season, and those were by accident.
11

66

44

62.6

58.8

58.2

.558

.538

73.1%

20.5%

93.6%

-1.8%

-0.9%

Losing two in a row to the Brewers probably wasn't Dusty Baker's idea of the perfect side dish to a delicious toothpick.
12

53

57

54.3

56.7

57.7

.504

.484

0.1%

1.1%

1.2%

0.2%

0.1%

News came yesterday that Jason Bay would no longer be the regular left fielder for the Mets. Which is an odd way to put it because standing in left field isn't really Bay's problem.
13

57

52

57.0

55.7

56.8

.520

.540

2.8%

20.1%

22.9%

5.0%

-0.7%

Two seasons ago Fernando Rodney walked 35 in 68 innings. Last season he walked 28 in 32 innings. This year in 51 2/3 innings he's walked eight.
14

59

51

58.5

55.6

56.4

.522

.541

0.4%

23.2%

23.6%

8.1%

-3.0%

Here’s looking forward to the time that Oakland wins a World Series so Billy Beane’s detractors can say he’s never won two World Series.
15

60

50

56.7

56.8

56.0

.522

.502

59.2%

3.2%

62.4%

7.5%

5.9%

Can Brian Sabean please just sign Jamie Moyer? Please? You can play him at shortstop if you want.
16

62

47

58.4

57.3

55.6

.535

.515

10.8%

43.9%

54.7%

-0.2%

1.8%

Jason Grilli's day went double, single, single, homer, dugout, showers, steak dinner because he’s still a major-league pitcher.
17

59

52

56.8

54.5

54.3

.506

.486

21.0%

4.0%

25.0%

-11.3%

-11.3%

It's a bit surprising how good Aaron Harang has been (3.80 ERA in 130 1/3 innings), but since the All-Star break he's posted a 4.75 ERA with 15 walks in 30 1/3 innings.
18

53

56

55.1

53.4

54.0

.494

.514

0.0%

0.9%

0.9%

-0.0%

-0.3%

Perhaps an overlooked aspect of Edwin Encarnacion's breakout season is this: he has 55 walks so far, a total that has already exceeded his single-season career best.
19

50

60

51.6

54.1

53.7

.476

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Now without Carlos Ruiz and after the trades of Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence, it's at least possible: is Juan Pierre the Phillies best hitter? (Phillies fans: you can fall for this in the comments)
20

51

61

55.3

52.5

53.4

.474

.494

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

To get their young players more at-bats, Seattle will try to make every game as long as possible. “We just need reps,” said Eric Wedge. “If we’re lose’n, we’re playing to tie, and if we’re win’n big, the Mariner Moose is coming out of the pen.”
21

50

59

53.7

54.4

53.1

.484

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.5%

Scouts were unsure whether or not Mike Fiers could make it as a major-league pitcher. Their doubts may still win the day but, so far, whoa!
22

49

61

48.5

50.3

50.4

.450

.470

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If the Twins had Justin Verlander they'd try to get him to pitch more to contact.
23

50

60

44.7

49.6

50.0

.441

.461

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

-0.1%

-2.6%

The Cleveland Indians: Proving you don't have to be old to be lousy.
24

48

64

49.7

50.4

48.8

.439

.420

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

Carlos Quentin was hitting .533/.611/1.400 against the Cubs this season before he went 1-for-3 with a homer and a walk Tuesday.
25

59

51

49.3

47.1

48.7

.464

.484

1.5%

7.0%

8.5%

1.2%

3.7%

The Orioles are 22-6 in one-run games because they love pressure. Normal major-league baseball games where only their jobs hang in the balance don't interest them.
26

50

60

44.2

46.4

47.3

.427

.408

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Anytime Jose Reyes returns to New York it means a lot to him. "Oh yeah," said Reyes. "I love it here. Which is good because, heck, the Marlins'll probably trade me back here in a year anyway."
27

46

63

48.3

46.4

46.8

.430

.450

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Royals are on pace to score 675 runs. That would probably be fine if they weren't on pace to allow 762 runs.
28

43

65

44.7

42.3

43.0

.400

.381

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Matt Garza's stress fracture in his elbow right before the trade deadline is like taking your grandmother's fine china to auction and then tripping as you put it down on the podium.
29

40

68

43.5

42.1

42.6

.390

.371

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies' .370 winning percentage could charitably be described as sub-putrid, but they have only been a lousy 38-55 against the National League. A .133 winning percentage against the AL though, that has made all the difference.
30

36

75

40.6

40.4

40.2

.354

.336

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros are not just some team that loses a lot. They are a team that has taken losing to the next level, artistically. Turning a missed bunt, for example, into a ballet that manager Brad Mills called, "The Sad Swan" was genius.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


3 comments have been left for this article.
Hendo

The Phillies' best hitter isn't Cole Hamels any more? What the hell happened?

Aug 08, 2012 07:37 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Ha! Sadly Hamels' 'performance' has really fallen off since his 'hot start.' He's hitting .234/.265/.319, though in fairness that isn't too far off of Ryan Howard's .200/.292/.400.

Aug 08, 2012 09:13 AM
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0

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MikeJordan23

Cardinals were like 10 games out at this point last year.

Aug 08, 2012 11:35 AM
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