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Prospectus Hit List for August 3



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 2 Hit List for August 6
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Phillies' playoff odds are 0.2 percent? What does that mean, exactly? Matt explains.

Rk TmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

57

49

58.5

59.9

60.7

.557

.577

11.7%

67.2%

78.9%

-5.0%

0.7%

Even after giving up eight runs to his former team, C.J. Wilson has a 3.27 ERA.
2

54

51

57.2

58.6

57.7

.542

.522

27.6%

4.8%

32.4%

0.0%

21.1%

The Diamondbacks traded for Scott Podsednik from Boston. They assigned him to Triple-A. He refused the assignment and left the organization. This is called maximizing assets.
3

60

45

58.3

57.4

57.9

.556

.536

29.3%

52.2%

81.5%

3.5%

16.4%

Chipper Jones is retiring next year. Chipper Jones is hitting .316/.391/.513. There are other reasons to stop playing baseball besides ceasing to be good at it, but for the life of me I can't think of one.
4

55

50

46.2

44.4

45.9

.456

.476

0.1%

2.9%

3.0%

-0.7%

-0.4%

How is it that the Orioles, a team with a -60 run differential, are five games over .500? I like to think Buck Showalter’s road trip dress regulations played a significant part.
5

53

53

56.0

57.5

57.9

.529

.549

1.7%

15.0%

16.7%

-4.8%

3.4%

After walking 119 times in 2009, Adrian Gonzalez is on pace for less than 40 walks this season. Since June 24, Gonzalez has walked three times.
6

57

47

58.4

56.6

57.0

.550

.570

69.6%

14.9%

84.5%

-3.0%

7.9%

Adam Dunn is walking in 17.3 percent of his plate appearances. If you don’t count his strikeouts, it’s 90 percent.
7

43

60

43.6

41.0

41.8

.411

.392

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Anthony Rizzo's OPS is 100 points higher than any other Cub. This is both good and bad.
8

64

41

60.6

57.8

57.0

.570

.550

80.7%

17.3%

98.0%

3.0%

5.1%

What is the secret to Johnny Cueto's success? He is giving up 0.3 home runs per nine innings. As you'll note, a third of a homer is really a pop up to shortstop. Ah ha!
9

50

55

44.9

49.5

49.7

.462

.482

0.3%

1.3%

1.6%

-0.7%

-13.1%

The Indians perpetually seem to have good young hitters. Not a ton of them, but some. So why can't they win anything? Tough to say, but the team's 4.66 team ERA probably plays some role.
10

38

65

42.7

40.8

41.0

.394

.375

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

John Rutledge homered in his fourth straight game which is enough that it's about time I start referring to him by Josh Rutledge which is his actual name.
11

55

50

53.4

54.9

56.0

.522

.542

30.1%

28.1%

58.2%

3.2%

-11.3%

Prince Fielder's OPS in odd years has never been below .981. His OPS in even years has never been above .888.
12

35

71

39.2

38.8

38.3

.357

.339

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Houston has won three out of its past 31 games. They say you can't make an omelet without breaking eggs, but three out of their last 31 games??
13

44

60

46.0

44.1

44.2

.429

.448

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

One of the great things about baseball is that, although they might be awful, totally terrible and pathetic, the Royals can still get excited about a walk-off win. Now they're 44-60 instead of 43-61. Hooray!
14

56

50

53.8

51.7

51.9

.503

.483

26.3%

4.8%

31.1%

-2.2%

8.8%

Since joining the Dodgers, many insiders have commented on how Hanley Ramirez has gone out of his way to be the most considerate and team-oriented jerk he can be.
15

48

57

42.1

44.9

45.3

.429

.410

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Marlins are the only team with over 100 stolen bases on the season. They have 110. They had 135 but traded them so they wouldn't have to pay their salary.
16

48

56

52.1

52.3

50.8

.488

.468

0.1%

0.5%

0.6%

0.2%

-0.1%

Tragedy struck Milwaukee as six golden retrievers were accidentally released onto the field during the sausage race. All four sausages were killed and eaten.
17

45

60

44.5

47.0

47.1

.437

.457

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Virtually any time the Twins win a baseball game this season you will be able to say, "Wow, you couldn't have predicted that." Which reminds me. Yesterday they beat Boston. Wow. You couldn't have predicted that.
18

61

43

60.9

60.8

61.4

.587

.606

93.6%

4.1%

97.7%

1.4%

-1.7%

The Yankees are 18 games over .500. In 86 games against the American League, New York is 10 games over .500. In 18 games against the National League, New York is eight games over.
19

52

54

52.7

54.9

56.1

.509

.489

0.1%

3.6%

3.7%

1.3%

0.8%

In 2009, his last season in Boston, Jason Bay hit 36 homers. In the two and a half seasons since, he has hit 25.
20

57

48

56.0

53.4

54.1

.525

.545

1.3%

26.3%

27.6%

6.6%

-0.3%

Josh Reddick hit his 23rd homer, which is 13 more than his score on the 1-10 scale of hairstyle awesomeness.
21

47

58

49.2

50.7

50.0

.469

.449

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1%

-0.8%

According to our playoff odds report, the Phillies possess a 0.2 chance to make the playoffs. That means, if we could play the season out 100 times, the Phillies would make the playoffs 0.2 times.
22

60

44

56.1

53.6

51.8

.533

.513

11.7%

47.8%

59.5%

3.7%

5.2%

On May 8 he was hitting .302. On June 9 he was hitting .320. On July 5 he was hitting .356. Today Andrew McCutchen is hitting .373. What will he be hitting in a month?
23

44

63

46.4

47.1

45.6

.428

.409

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Padres pitchers have walked the most hitters in baseball. Why would they do this? Don't they know that walks are not good? Someone should email them.
24

50

57

53.8

50.9

51.6

.482

.502

0.0%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

Six Mariners qualify for the batting title. None of them has an OPS higher than .736.
25

56

49

52.2

52.8

52.6

.508

.488

46.1%

2.8%

48.9%

0.7%

-35.2%

In six games since arriving in trade, Marco Scutaro is hitting .333/.375/.429. The last season Scutaro slugged .429 or better in the majors was never.
26

56

49

62.4

63.1

60.8

.577

.557

7.5%

44.1%

51.6%

-11.1%

-18.9%

The Cardinals are one of the best teams in the National League but are only seven games over .500. Know what this is? This is karmic payback for 2006 and last year.
27

55

50

55.0

53.4

54.7

.519

.539

4.4%

27.5%

31.9%

3.3%

15.7%

Now that shifts have caught on, Joe Maddon needs to come up with something else. Three suggestions: 1) Holding the bat upside down. 2) Infield ring-around-the-rosey during play 3) secret "Clue" passage between first and third
28

61

43

60.0

63.9

63.5

.597

.616

87.0%

11.7%

98.7%

0.4%

-0.5%

In his Rangers debut, Ryan Dempster pitched 4 2/3 innings giving up eight runs. The Rangers won 15-8. If they were going to score 15 runs the Rangers shouldn't have bothered trading for Dempster.
29

51

54

53.2

51.5

52.0

.495

.515

0.2%

0.7%

0.9%

-1.0%

-0.7%

Brett Lawrie has a tattoo on his arm of Brett Lawrie getting a tattoo on his arm. It is predictably awesome.
30

62

42

60.7

61.4

60.1

.587

.568

70.6%

22.0%

92.6%

1.0%

-2.4%

Jayson Werth came back from three months on the DL to go 1-for-3. Because this is how these things go: in the next three days Ryan Zimmerman will be injured eating pie.