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Prospectus Hit List for August 2



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for August 1 Hit List for August 3
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Do you guys even realize how much baseball was played Wednesday?

RkTmWLW1 W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

56

48

62.6

63.4

61.0

.584

.564

11.4%

51.9%

63.3%

6.3%

-7.6%

Not only was Matt Holliday haunting the Rockies with a two-homer day, but he dressed up in a bedsheet and walked around the Rockies offices after dark.
2

60

43

59.0

63.3

62.8

.595

.614

77.6%

20.8%

98.4%

1.4%

-0.6%

The Rangers packed two last-minute rallies and a bullpen meltdown into an inning and a half. See? You don't need racing sausages or ridiculous scoreboard gadgetry to make baseball interesting. You just need lousy bullpens.
3

61

43

60.9

60.8

61.3

.587

.606

92.3%

4.5%

96.8%

-0.5%

-2.9%

The return of Joba Chamberlain was a dud, as the pitcher allowed four hits, a walk, and two runs in 1 2/3 innings without striking out a hitter. Time to transfer him back to the rotation!
4

61

42

59.8

60.5

59.2

.584

.564

60.9%

31.0%

91.9%

-1.7%

-1.1%

GM Mike Rizzo is getting lots of well-deserved credit, but let's not go overboard. How hard was it to pick Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper?
5

57

48

58.7

59.7

60.4

.561

.581

21.0%

62.3%

83.3%

-1.4%

7.6%

Mike Trout went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. He still had a positive WPA, because he walked twice, and because he's Mike Trout.
6

54

51

57.2

58.6

57.7

.542

.522

28.9%

2.6%

31.5%

8.2%

16.3%

Newest Diamondback Chris Johnson homered and is now hitting .545/.615/1.182 for Arizona. Ah, early season numbers, how I've missed you!
7

53

52

56.0

57.5

57.8

.534

.554

3.7%

17.6%

21.3%

-3.9%

8.6%

It's reaching the point now where Red Sox fans are just reflexively booing. "So, a burger, a coke, and a large fries. That'll be $26." "Boooo!" "Did you just boo me?" "Noooooboooooo"
8

63

41

59.6

56.9

56.1

.566

.547

78.9%

16.3%

95.2%

0.7%

2.4%

Despite not playing since mid-July, Joey Votto has now taken the NL lead in OPS.
9

59

45

57.3

56.7

57.2

.553

.534

38.8%

39.6%

78.4%

-6.4%

12.4%

The Braves are 41-23 against right-handed pitchers and 18-22 against lefties.
10

57

47

58.4

56.6

57.0

.551

.570

76.6%

11.1%

87.7%

2.7%

13.1%

This time last year Jake Peavy was selling build-your-own piano kits out of the back of his Eastern European sub-compact. He's still doing that, but now he's an All Star-caliber starting pitcher too.
11

55

50

53.4

54.9

56.0

.522

.542

22.4%

33.2%

55.6%

4.6%

-16.6%

Back-to-back homers by Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder were the 30-mile-long, 100 percent lead piece of straw that vaporized the camel's back causing the animal to implode in on itself in a bloody and frankly disgusting display of... you know what? The Tigers won.
12

51

54

51.4

53.8

54.9

.503

.483

0.2%

2.0%

2.2%

1.2%

0.6%

His last day at .400 was May 13. After a 3-for-4 day, David Wright's batting average is down to .333.
13

60

44

56.1

53.6

51.8

.533

.513

9.7%

46.5%

56.2%

4.3%

8.6%

Michael McKenry became the first Pirates hitter to hit a three-run homer for the Pirates since 1970. I'm assuming.
14

55

50

55.0

53.4

54.7

.519

.539

3.1%

25.2%

28.3%

4.3%

8.9%

Carlos Pena is working feverishly to reduce the requirements for a three-true-outcomes hitter.
15

56

48

52.6

52.9

52.7

.515

.495

42.4%

5.3%

47.7%

-8.3%

-35.4%

The Giants are planning on using a 13-man pitching staff for the near future. This is called maximizing what you're good at.
16

56

48

55.1

52.5

53.2

.521

.541

1.4%

19.7%

21.1%

-5.1%

-9.9%

In his first nine starts, Jarrod Parker struck out 39, walked 29 and had a 3.19 ERA. In the next nine, through last night, he has struck out 47, walked 17 and... has a 3.67 ERA.
17

48

56

52.1

52.3

50.8

.488

.468

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

-0.3%

-1.0%

Sweeping the Astros, like Milwaukee just did, is like remembering to write your name on the SAT exam. It's 200 points anyone taking the test should get. You just have to not be an idiot.
18

56

50

53.8

51.7

51.9

.503

.483

28.7%

4.3%

33.0%

-4.0%

5.2%

Stephen Fife sports a 2.16 ERA over four starts. That wasn't included in the list of possible outcomes when the Dodgers brought him up, the most likely of which was, 'Kid, try not to get someone killed, eh?'
19

51

53

53.0

51.3

51.9

.498

.518

0.0%

1.8%

1.8%

0.8%

0.4%

Jeff Mathis is hitting .243/.282.466 for an OPS of .748. Of the 24 players who have plate appearances for the Blue Jays this season, that OPS is seventh. That's Jeff Mathis, former punching bag, everyone!
20

50

57

53.8

50.9

51.6

.482

.502

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

Now that the trade deadline is over and Ichiro is in New York can we all agree to stop collectively paying attention to the Mariners until they trade Felix Hernandez?
21

47

57

49.0

50.5

49.8

.472

.452

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

-0.3%

That Jimmy Rollins waited until the day following the trade deadline to hit two homers in a game is probably upsetting to some.
22

50

54

44.4

49.3

49.5

.465

.484

1.0%

1.3%

2.3%

-1.3%

-8.1%

After the Indians DFA'd him, Derek Lowe's career may be over. But probably not. Like the man's sinker this season, you can't keep him down.
23

44

62

46.5

47.0

45.4

.432

.412

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

-0.1%

Cameron Maybin is hitting .215/.291/.319. Cameron May-Have-Been, AMIRITE?!?
24

44

60

43.6

46.1

46.2

.432

.452

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins aren't so good on the road, they aren't good at home, they aren't good in one-run games, they aren't good against left-handers, they aren't good when the moon is full, and they aren't good on days of the week that end in -day. There's a theme here somewhere but I can't quite grasp it.
25

48

56

42.2

44.6

45.1

.432

.413

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

One wonders what Heath Bell and Jose Reyes think of this latest round of sell-offs by the Marlins. One man who is pleased, though: Albert Pujols.
26

55

50

46.2

44.4

45.9

.456

.476

0.9%

2.5%

3.4%

-1.5%

-0.5%

Zack Britton gave up seven runs (all earned) on seven hits. Reliever Kevin Gregg allowed a walk, a strikeout, and a home run. Luis Ayala pitched 1 1/3 innings and giving up one hit, one run (earned), one walk, and one hit-by-pitch. Winner!
27

43

60

45.4

43.2

43.4

.425

.445

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Deadlines don't mean much if you're already dead.
28

43

60

43.6

41.0

41.9

.411

.392

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Now that Ryan Dempster is out of town, the focus should turn to Alfonso Soriano. Maybe the Cubs can convince him there's a slider in the closet and when he goes in they can close and lock the door.
29

37

65

41.6

39.6

39.8

.387

.369

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

There is something to be said for players who make the best of their home parks, but Carlos Gonzalez's 1.123/.772 home/road OPS split is kinda silly.
30

35

71

39.2

38.8

38.3

.357

.339

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If you are an Astros fan looking for signs of life you'll be gratified to know that at the conclusion to last night's game each Astro was breathing normally.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
BP staff member Jason Wojciechowski

Be fair, $26 for a burger is boo-worthy.

Aug 02, 2012 14:57 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

For a burger, fries and a coke at Fenway? $26 might be undercutting it. Initially I had $76 but then I thought, nah, gotta be more realistic.

Aug 02, 2012 16:39 PM
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trueblue33

"Quick, Alfonso: It went in there and....OHMYGOD IT'S IN THE DIRT!!!"

Yeah, he'd go after it.

Aug 02, 2012 15:59 PM
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lonechicken

Maybe Derek Lowe needs another pep talk from Pete Schourek. Last time, Schourek called him up and said, "I just bid a lot of money to get you onto my fantasy league team. You better pitch well this year!" Lowe went from a 5.42 ERA and looking like he was done to a 3.61 ERA and having a second wind to his career.

Aug 02, 2012 18:50 PM
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