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Prospectus Hit List for August 1



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 31 Hit List for August 2
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Nationals' lead over the Phillies shrinks.

RkTmWL W1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

35

70

39.5

38.9

38.4

.361

.343

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Manager Brad Mills said he was glad the team didn't trade any more of 'my guys.' I guess when you're going to be fired you may as well spend your remaining time with 'your guys.'
2

37

64

41.4

39.1

39.3

.388

.369

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies have given up 575 runs on the season. That's 33 more than second-to-last Minnesota, and 209 behind first-place Washington.
3

47

56

41.5

44.1

44.5

.430

.410

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.3%

The Marlins traded for Carlos Lee, then when it became clear they were out of it, they tried to trade him again. He invoked his no-trade clause. He didnít want to leave. If only the Marlins had that same problem with their fans.
4

44

59

43.2

45.5

45.6

.433

.452

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ever walk past an ex-girlfriend then realize that she's talking to two other ex-girlfriends and they're all basically making fun of you? That kinda just happened to the Twins in Chicago.
5

43

59

43.5

40.6

41.4

.413

.394

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Only the weakest of sticks, that of career .211/.250/.342 hitter Adrian Cardenas, could break up the not-quite immortal A. J. Burnett's no-hit bid. Cubs lost 5-0 anyway.
6

50

53

44.2

48.7

49.1

.466

.486

0.9%

2.4%

3.3%

-3.0%

-13.6%

The Indians picked up Lars Anderson from Boston in a deadline deal. That isnít a vote of confidence, itís a refusal to vote in the first place.
7

42

60

44.6

42.8

43.0

.423

.442

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The odd thing about Alex Gordon's slash line of .294/.376/.433 is that it's so close to last year's version of .303/.376/.502, but without the power.
8

44

61

46.2

46.9

45.2

.434

.415

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

The Padres were unable to unload third baseman Chase Headley at the deadline, though why they wanted to trade him was less clear. Probably had something to do with the fact that he can hit.
9

55

49

46.6

44.4

45.8

.461

.481

0.5%

4.5%

5.0%

2.5%

-1.1%

The Orioles 1) are five and a half games out of first place, 2) have been outscored by 51 runs, 3) are 10-2 in extra inning games and 4) 20-6 in one-run games. Which of these things doesn't belong?
10

46

57

48.4

49.6

48.8

.468

.448

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1%

-0.5%

The Phillies traded away two starting players and then beat Stephen Strasburg, 8-0. Ruben Amaro is going to be disappointed to find out he can't do the same thing tomorrow.
11

47

56

50.7

51.0

49.8

.482

.462

0.1%

0.5%

0.6%

0.3%

-0.3%

Aremis Ramirez went 3-for-4 to bring his season line up to .293/.356/.504, a dead ringer for his career .285/.343/.500 line.
12

50

54

50.8

52.5

53.5

.497

.477

0.1%

0.9%

1.0%

-1.0%

-2.0%

Quick Quiz: Matt Harvey: 1. Throws hard. 2. Does not throw hard. 3. I cannot answer this on the grounds that it may incriminate me.
13

56

47

52.2

53.2

53.1

.521

.501

50.1%

6.8%

56.9%

6.9%

-30.0%

Now that Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence have joined rivals, I picture them being walked to the California border holding hands. Once there, their hands are slowly ripped apart as their new parents yank them way from each other. There is crying, lots of crying. Then I remember I made this all up.
14

51

52

52.7

50.8

51.5

.500

.520

0.1%

1.0%

1.1%

-2.0%

-3.2%

Now that the Blue Jays have Tuffy Gosewisch in the fold they can, well, continue playing baseball as if nothing happened because nothing indeed has happened.
15

54

50

52.7

54.1

55.1

.519

.539

23.6%

27.8%

51.4%

-4.5%

-16.1%

Justin Verlander has given up nine runs in 19 innings against Boston this season, but after the eight shutout innings on Opening Day, he's given up nine runs in 11 innings. Verlander not Verlanding.
16

49

57

53.1

50.4

51.2

.481

.501

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1%

-0.1%

Dustin Ackley is a young player who is taking advantage of his team's struggles to get some major-league plate appearances. This will help him down the line. But he's hitting. 224 with an OPS of .604. Does he have to hit leadoff?
17

56

49

53.8

52.1

52.2

.510

.490

30.7%

6.6%

37.3%

-13.1%

22.9%

Since joining the Dodgers, Hanley Ramirez has put up a .761 OPS. This compared to a .749 OPS in Miami, and a .712 last year. Maybe this is just who he is.
18

54

50

54.1

52.4

53.7

.515

.535

2.0%

21.8%

23.8%

6.1%

4.5%

The last trade Tampa made at the deadline involved a bunch of land traded for a large collection of animal pelts and a back-up shortstop.
19

56

47

55.0

52.4

53.2

.526

.546

2.8%

22.4%

25.2%

-8.1%

8.3%

On the scale of inevitability, George Kottaras joining the A's rates about an eight.
20

59

44

55.2

52.9

51.2

.530

.510

10.9%

41.1%

52.0%

8.5%

-1.8%

As a prank, Pirates GM Neal Huntington called up Yankees GM Brian Cashman and asked if the Yankees felt like paying for any more of the Pirates' player salaries.
21

53

51

55.7

57.3

57.6

.538

.557

5.0%

21.1%

26.1%

3.2%

9.3%

Carl Crawford since returning from the disabled list: .244/.306/.356. There is still time for the deal to work out. There is still time for the deal to work out. There is still ...
22

53

51

56.2

57.3

56.4

.536

.516

19.1%

4.1%

23.2%

3.1%

1.5%

After acquiring Matt Albers at the deadline, the Diamondbacks have sent a clear signal to their fans: what does this button do?
23

59

44

57.0

56.2

56.7

.556

.536

39.1%

45.2%

84.3%

0.5%

20.3%

The Braves have won seven straight and trail the Nationals by just two and a half games. Were the standings decided on the number of Durbins a team contained, the Braves would be in first, but alas, they'll have to keep winning baseball games.
24

56

47

57.8

56.2

56.6

.550

.570

75.5%

10.0%

85.5%

4.8%

11.1%

Now that Francisco Liriano is allowed to strike out hitters again, he did, striking out eight Twins in six innings. Payback is, in this case, almost immediate.
25

57

47

58.4

59.5

60.0

.565

.584

28.5%

55.8%

84.3%

3.0%

4.8%

The Angels have never lost a game when Mike Trout homers and Albert Pujols homers twice.
26

59

43

58.4

62.7

62.2

.594

.613

68.7%

28.4%

97.1%

-1.0%

-1.7%

It is tough to win when the first four hitters in a lineup go a combined 0-for-16. So tough, in fact, the Rangers didn't win.
27

62

41

58.9

56.1

55.4

.564

.544

77.8%

16.7%

94.5%

-0.2%

1.3%

Homer Bailey gave up six runs in the fourth to the Padres. That is like going to a job interview dressed as fascist clown. It takes effort to be that bad at something.
28

61

41

59.4

60.4

59.1

.588

.568

60.8%

32.8%

93.6%

-2.7%

1.2%

After last night's huge loss to Philadelphia, the Nationals' lead over the Phillies is down to 15 1/2 games. First-place problems.
29

60

43

59.6

59.8

60.4

.582

.601

92.4%

4.7%

97.1%

-0.9%

-2.2%

Yesterday's game was just the sixth this season the Yankees have failed to draw a walk. Oddly, three of them have come over the last two weeks.
30

55

48

61.8

62.9

60.5

.583

.563

11.2%

45.1%

56.3%

-2.4%

-12.5%

Is Carlos Beltran the bargain of the century? If he can beat this combination tea pot/snorkeling mask that I just saw on TV, then yes!

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


5 comments have been left for this article.
BillJohnson

Homer Bailey may have given up six runs in the fourth to the Padres, but look who won the game. I am in no way, shape or form a Reds rooter, but it's time to start taking that team seriously, blue smoke and mirrors or no blue smoke and mirrors.

Aug 01, 2012 06:16 AM
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+2

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gweedoh565

Agreed, it seems that no one has noticed they currently have the best record in baseball (!).

Aug 01, 2012 06:43 AM
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+1

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TimLandry

There is nothing available anywhere which can match the quality of writing on this page. You are incredible - you entertain, inform - and make my day. THANK YOU!

Aug 01, 2012 06:40 AM
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+3

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Dad?

Aug 01, 2012 09:51 AM
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+6

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jimcal

Daily hit idea for Mariners: Now that Ichiro is gone, Mariners officially becomes a 4A team that traps Felix but offer ol' timers to come back.

Aug 01, 2012 10:28 AM
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0

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