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Prospectus Hit List for July 31



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 30 Hit List for August 1
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Rangers no longer have the AL's best run differential, and may not have the AL West's best run differential for long.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div% Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

56

47

57.4

58.4

59.0

.560

.580

18.7%

62.3%

81.0%

2.3%

-0.1%

Kendrys Morales hit two home runs from opposite sides of the plate in the same inning. So if Morales hits anything less than 1062 homers over the rest of the season you know he's not reaching his potential.
2

58

44

55.9

55.0

55.6

.550

.530

30.1%

53.7%

83.8%

9.4%

26.3%

Tommy Hanson won his 12th game, the most on the Braves, although his 4.29 ERA is only third-best among Braves starters. What does this mean? Oh, drat. I was hoping you'd know.
3

54

48

60.8

62.3

59.9

.581

.561

12.2%

46.4%

58.6%

-1.0%

-2.0%

Pujols: .282/.349/.492. Yadier Molina: .304/.356/.503.
4

58

44

54.1

51.6

50.1

.524

.504

8.8%

35.3%

44.1%

-6.5%

-12.7%

In only 4 1/3 innings, Erik Bedard walked just two and struck out seven. Pretty good if you don't ever get to the nine runs allowed part.
5

56

46

55.4

52.7

53.5

.533

.553

2.2%

31.0%

33.2%

3.6%

12.2%

After tying the Rays 3-3 in the seventh, the A's finally pushed across the winning run in the 15th inning. All this down time gave Josh Reddick the chance to go 0-for-7 with four strikeouts.
6

61

40

59.8

60.7

59.3

.596

.577

69.7%

26.7%

96.4%

1.6%

9.0%

At 10-8 the Nationals finished tied for the second-best record during interleague play. This makes them the Teddy Roosevelt of interleague play.
7

54

49

52.6

53.6

54.6

.521

.541

29.1%

26.3%

55.4%

-5.7%

-16.3%

Max Scherzer struck out nine in 6 1/3 innings, but perhaps more importantly he gave up two triples, a homer, four singles and two walks. That's five runs. Strikeouts are important but they're far from everything.
8

52

51

54.9

56.7

57.1

.536

.556

3.2%

19.4%

22.6%

5.2%

8.7%

Carl Crawford tripled in the first inning, causing the entire region of Massachusetts to collectively spit-take their baked beans all over their cahs. The damage has been estimated to be in the billions.
9

59

42

58.3

62.7

62.2

.600

.619

79.1%

19.2%

98.3%

-0.3%

-1.4%

Clearly Roy Oswalt's 6.49 ERA over 34 2/3 innings indicates he should have signed with the Red Sox in the first place.
10

53

50

52.7

51.1

52.5

.508

.528

1.4%

16.4%

17.8%

-2.8%

0.8%

During their 15-inning loss to Oakland, the Rays used all seven members of their bullpen. As the winning run crossed the plate, Rays' DH Jeff Keppinger was warming in the bullpen. Extra scorn should be heaped on the A's for taking this from the baseball world.
11

61

41

58.3

55.5

54.9

.563

.543

79.0%

15.3%

94.3%

-1.4%

2.9%

Every time Scott Rolen gets a hit an angel gets kicked in the face. This explains why Rolen has had a tough year.
12

55

47

57.2

55.6

56.2

.549

.569

68.5%

13.1%

81.6%

-3.1%

13.2%

"Adam Dunn" batted five times. He hit no home runs and did not strike out. The imposter is in police custody while a massive manhunt is underway.
13

56

48

54.0

52.3

52.3

.516

.496

42.1%

8.2%

50.3%

1.2%

18.3%

If Matt Kemp (.352/.420/.658) put banana peels all around the house of Joey Votto (.342/.465/.604), you might not condone it, but you could understand it.
14

55

47

51.3

52.6

52.4

.518

.498

42.0%

7.8%

49.8%

-9.2%

-34.1%

There is no truth to the rumor that the Giants are tying to sign Edgar Renteria and Miguel Tejada to create the World's Oldest Shortstop.
15

52

51

55.1

56.2

55.2

.530

.510

15.9%

3.9%

19.8%

5.9%

-1.1%

Is anyone talking about Paul Goldschmidt? Because he's hitting .292/.359/.527 so maybe they should.
16

50

52

44.2

48.6

49.0

.470

.490

2.4%

3.7%

6.1%

1.5%

-8.2%

If the Indians trade Justin Masterson, it is likely that the entire team will react like the characters on Sesame Street when they all learn that Gordon isn't feeling well.
17

60

42

59.7

59.5

60.1

.587

.606

95.0%

3.2%

98.2%

-0.7%

-0.9%

The Yankees got homers from Raul Ibanez, Eric Chavez, and Ichiro. What team is this and, come to think of it, what year is this? Also, where am I?
18

51

51

52.7

51.0

51.8

.506

.526

0.2%

2.9%

3.1%

1.0%

-2.2%

He didn't win, but Ricky Romero's day (6 innings, 3 runs) wasn't a the total disaster we've been seeing (14 runs allowed in 7 1/3 innings over the previous two starts). For now that'll do.
19

54

49

45.5

43.6

45.0

.457

.477

0.2%

2.5%

2.7%

-0.9%

-5.8%

The Orioles' interest in Joe Blanton seems tied to these dual facts: 1) the Orioles are 23rd in innings thrown by starters, and 2) Joe Blanton finds innings to be delicious.
20

50

53

50.6

52.2

53.2

.500

.480

0.1%

2.1%

2.2%

-0.5%

-1.8%

Scott Hairston last night hit 2.3 percent of his career home run total and stole 3.1 percent of his career stolen base total. If Rickey Henderson had done that he'd have stolen 44 bases and hit seven homers last night.
21

46

56

49.3

49.7

48.7

.475

.455

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.3%

-4.2%

Livan Hernandez blew the save then got the win. Did he do that on purpose? Livan Hernandez will never tell!
22

45

57

47.1

48.4

47.6

.461

.441

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

-0.2%

After signing a five-year, $120 million contract before the 2011 season, Cliff Lee probably thought he could take a few years off from hearing his name included in trade rumors. Nope. If it weren't for that $120 million part you might even feel badly for the guy.
23

47

55

41.6

44.3

44.6

.435

.416

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.4%

In his return to the bullpen, Carlos Zambrano threw 1 2/3 innings while striking out three and giving up two hits and a run. OK, so sending him back to the pen didn't work. Can we send him back to Chicago?
24

48

57

52.0

49.1

49.8

.474

.494

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

The Mariners are 6-2 since trading Ichiro. Coincidence? I think yes!
25

44

58

42.8

45.1

45.1

.434

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins beat Chicago as every starter on the Twins had at least one hit except shortstop Brian Dozier. Or as he was called in the Twins clubhouse after the game, Dr. Losey McLoserson, IV.
26

44

60

45.8

46.5

44.8

.435

.416

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Yonder Alonso hit three doubles, bringing his season line up to .268/.343/.389. Pretty bad for a first baseman, but if you adjust for his home park, you'd see that he's really... oh, wait, Nope. Never mind.
27

41

60

43.6

41.9

42.1

.417

.437

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Eric Hosmer is hitting .232/.301/.362. This after hitting .293/.334/.465 last season. This guy is too good to hit like this. Maybe the Royals should extend him now.
28

35

69

39.9

39.2

38.6

.367

.349

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Bud Norris facts: 1) Bud Norris doesn't bag his own groceries because he goes to the grocery store that bags them for him. 2) When he wants to fill his tank, Bud Norris uses cash because credit costs three cents more. 3) Owning every episode of 'Dawson's Creek' means being able to watch any episode whenever Bud Norris wants.
29

37

63

41.3

38.8

38.8

.390

.371

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Rockies pitching is so awful they had the day off and they didn't give up any runs, but they almost did.
30

43

58

43.6

41.0

41.6

.419

.399

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs just scored 14 runs on the Pirates and are now 15-9 in July. This announcement has been brought to you by Random Variation. (Unless you're a Cub fan. Then it's been brought to you by A New Era Is Dawning!)

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


6 comments have been left for this article.
Hendo

Livan Hernandez is achieving the fulfillment he could never find in all those years of coughing up three first-inning runs and then exiting in the seventh with a no-decision after throwing 224 pitches.

Having added "vulture" to his resume, he can retire a happy man.

Jul 31, 2012 07:24 AM
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+2

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Llarry

I think Livan Hernandez should start referring to Livan Hernandez in the third person. He's earned it.

Jul 31, 2012 11:23 AM
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+1

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kmbart

I found the Orioles comment "The Orioles' interest in Joe Blanton seems tied to these duel facts:" to be completely spurious - there was no mention of Alexander Hamilton or Aaron Burr, nor epees or sabers, nor pistols, or even white gloves. Is it possible that "duel" was simply a red herring meant to trick me into reading about Joe Blanton?

Jul 31, 2012 08:01 AM
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+4

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BP staff member Matt Kory

Ha! That would be a nice way of putting it. Maybe tomorrow I'll try to sneak Alexander Hamilton or Aaron Burr just for you.

Jul 31, 2012 08:54 AM
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pobothecat

(Previously useless factoid, recently learned: Hamilton fired skyward rather than violate his Christian principles.)

Jul 31, 2012 14:46 PM
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0

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jclaffs

Yonder Alonso's TAv is .276, so he's really...an above-average hitter.

Jul 31, 2012 08:37 AM
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0

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