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Prospectus Hit List for July 30



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 27 Hit List for July 31
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

For all your Jose Altuve needs.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC% Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

60

41

59.3

59.2

59.8

.590

.609

96.5%

2.5%

99.0%

-0.1%

0.8%

The Yankees have hit 23 homers in nine games against Boston pitching. Of course, it is Boston pitching.
2

59

41

58.6

62.6

61.9

.605

.624

85.4%

13.3%

98.7%

1.0%

-0.5%

Rangers pitching have walked the fewest batters in baseball (263).
3

61

40

58.5

55.5

54.9

.569

.549

81.1%

14.6%

95.7%

3.3%

7.1%

The Reds just won their 10th game in a row which, I'm pretty sure, means the entire city of Cincinnati lost a bet. An entire city pantless for a week. Remind me not to fly through Cincinnati for the next seven days.
4

61

40

59.8

60.7

59.3

.596

.577

72.7%

21.9%

94.6%

0.3%

11.1%

If Michael Morse is a flash in the pan, it's a pretty big flash and pretty... well I guess it doesn't matter how big the pan is.
5

55

46

56.8

55.2

55.8

.551

.571

68.8%

16.7%

85.5%

-2.5%

23.1%

Things to do while waiting for Kevin Youkilis to get injured again: 1) Crochet that bonnet you’ve been thinking about; 2) Learn to swear in a foreign language. How about Canadian! 3) Count the number of times The Hawk says something that no person from Chicago would ever actually say.
6

55

47

56.2

57.6

58.2

.556

.576

13.4%

65.4%

78.8%

-3.1%

-1.1%

Zack Greinke threw seven innings, striking out seven to one walk and giving up only two runs. But the Angels lost, 2-0, clearly because Zack Greinke doesn't know how to win. (He's 9-4 on the year.)
7

57

44

54.7

54.1

54.7

.546

.526

26.9%

47.0%

73.9%

6.9%

9.3%

Braves shortstops have hit .242/.284/.330, which is like having a good hitting pitcher hit for the shortstop every day. Although a pitcher can't play a decent shortstop, so in sense, good move, Braves!
8

54

48

52.5

53.6

54.5

.526

.546

30.0%

31.6%

61.6%

11.2%

-9.5%

This year there has been an industry-wide increase in strikeouts. There is no clearer example of this than Doug Fister striking out nine in eight innings.
9

55

46

51.0

51.8

51.7

.518

.498

48.9%

10.2%

59.1%

-6.3%

-22.6%

Melky Cabrera's slugging percentage by year: .211, .391, .391, .368, .341, .416, .354, .470, .520.
10

54

48

60.8

62.3

59.9

.581

.561

10.8%

48.0%

58.8%

-9.9%

-5.5%

The Cardinals have the highest-scoring offense and the biggest run differential in the National League and yet are still 7 1/2 games out of first place. Must have bad chemistry!
11

58

43

54.8

52.0

50.5

.533

.513

8.1%

43.8%

51.9%

-5.1%

-10.5%

The Pirates scored five runs without Andrew McCutchen in the starting lineup (he pinch-hit and popped out to second base). That is the most they've scored with him getting one plate appearance or fewer in a game all season long.
12

56

47

54.1

52.3

52.2

.521

.501

41.0%

8.4%

49.4%

13.1%

22.9%

Clayton Kershaw threw nine shutout innings against the Dodgers' bitter rival, but went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts at the plate, while leaving nine men on. Argument #4,648 in favor of the DH, argument #1 against Clayton Kershaw.
13

55

46

54.8

51.9

52.7

.531

.550

1.2%

28.0%

29.2%

-7.1%

8.6%

Perhaps the most interesting thing about Josh Reddick is how consistent he's been. Every month this season (.748, .974, .815, .937) his OPS has been above his pre-2012 career mark of .706.
14

53

49

52.4

51.0

52.3

.511

.531

1.5%

19.2%

20.7%

3.5%

3.0%

If you don't count the two times Kyle Farnsworth has given up runs, his ERA is 0.00 this season.
15

51

51

54.0

55.8

56.2

.532

.552

1.6%

15.7%

17.3%

0.9%

-0.6%

[pulls flower petal off] The Red Sox should buy. [pulls flower petal off] The Red Sox should sell. [pulls flower petal off] The Red Sox should buy...
16

51

51

54.1

55.2

54.1

.526

.506

10.1%

3.4%

13.5%

-4.0%

-3.8%

The Diamondbacks have been caught stealing a major-league leading 38 times. If only they had Hallmark cards for this sort of thing. "Congratulations, you're out!"
17

50

52

44.2

48.6

49.0

.470

.490

1.2%

2.7%

3.9%

-1.8%

-11.7%

Ubaldo Jimenez is The Dark Night Returns starring Keanu Reaves as a bat farmer with a fear of the dark. (In other words, a massive disappointment.)
18

53

49

44.9

42.9

44.3

.454

.473

0.2%

3.2%

3.4%

0.0%

-7.3%

It's late July and the Orioles are playing Oakland. And they win. And it matters! To both teams! That is nothing but good for baseball. (Sorry, no joke here. It actually is good for baseball.)
19

49

53

50.0

51.9

52.9

.499

.479

0.4%

2.2%

2.6%

1.6%

-3.4%

"OK, guys, this five-man rotation thing isn't working. We're 49-53. It's time for something new. It's time for the R.A. Dickey rotation. We'll call it 'The R.A.tation.' Alert marketing."
20

51

50

52.5

50.6

51.5

.509

.529

0.2%

1.6%

1.8%

-2.0%

-4.8%

Brett Lawrie is made of grit, gumption, sweat, and dirt, but not on-base percentage. Sorry ladies!
21

45

56

48.6

49.3

48.4

.473

.454

0.0%

0.3%

0.3%

0.0%

-3.5%

Three things the Brewers bullpen wouldn't be able to stop: 1) the Albany Kitten Invasion of '86, 2) the team of Nick Puntos from the 18th dimension, 3) a run from scoring.
22

45

57

47.1

48.4

47.6

.461

.441

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

-0.3%

The Phillies record with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, or Cole Hamels on the mound is pretty bad. But the Phillies are a 45-57 team so it probably shouldn't be much of shock.
23

47

57

51.2

48.5

49.1

.471

.491

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

Dustin Ackley has six hits in his last 46 plate appearances. Clearly he was so broken up about Ichiro being traded he got upset before it happened.
24

37

63

41.3

38.8

38.9

.390

.371

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In 60 plate appearances Josh Rutledge is hitting .379/.393/.638. And so, for a very brief period, Josh Rutledge is the best hitting shortstop in baseball.
25

35

68

39.4

38.6

38.1

.367

.348

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

And now it's time for your Jose Altuve Update: Still very short. This has been your Jose Altuve Update!
26

41

60

43.6

41.9

42.1

.417

.437

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Royals don't lead baseball in not walking. They're not that good.
27

47

54

41.8

44.3

44.5

.439

.420

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.8%

Josh Johnson walked six in five innings meaning that now nobody wants to trade for him. (Am I doing this right?)
28

43

58

42.2

44.6

44.5

.431

.451

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Francisco Liriano led the Twins with 100 strikeouts. The next closest Twins pitcher to him is Scott Diamond with 56. Seems like when the season ends Francisco Liriano will lead the Twins with 100 strikeouts.
29

43

60

44.6

45.4

43.8

.429

.410

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Now with Huston Street in the fold, all the Padres need to be successful is an entire baseball team.
30

42

58

41.9

39.6

40.3

.409

.390

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Anthony Rizzo is a Golden God! OK, not really, but dude is pretty good at baseball.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


5 comments have been left for this article.
Hendo

What did Anthony Rizzo ever do to you? I can smell that incipient 0-for-August whammy from here.

Or maybe that's the breeze coming in from Lake Michigan. Nope, probably the whammy, seeing as how I'm in D.C.

Jul 30, 2012 10:28 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Actually, I'm a big Rizzo fan ever since he was in the Red Sox system seemingly ages ago (really, like three years ago). I saw him play in Fenway after he was first called up last year by the Padres. There was a long rain delay and he was the only guy out on the field signing autographs for some kids while it was drizzling.

Jul 30, 2012 13:39 PM
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pobothecat

Y'know, you make a point there. I'd be very interested in an article entitled "Why Aren't the Cardinals in First Place?".

Jul 30, 2012 11:20 AM
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ceadie

"2) Learn to swear in a foreign language. How about Canadian! " ......How about, " Stick it in your Beaver pelt ! "

Jul 30, 2012 14:00 PM
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Robert Haueter

I nearly wet myself laughing at the Brewers comment. You are a laughter machine, sir.

Aug 18, 2012 00:48 AM
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