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Prospectus Hit List for July 27



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 26 Hit List for July 30
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Rangers drop 17 spots! No. No, not really.

Rk TmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

54

45

55.0

56.3

56.8

.561

.580

12.5%

65.6%

78.1%

2.8%

3.2%

So far the one big difference between Anaheim and division-leading Texas is record against the AL East. The Angels are 15-14 while the Rangers are 14-7.
2

49

50

52.1

54.0

52.9

.525

.505

7.5%

3.6%

11.1%

-4.5%

-3.9%

12th in Runs Scored, 16th in Runs Allowed, and a 49-50 record. That's extremely average stuff right there. You heard it here first: the Arizona Diamondbacks are Extreme!!
3

54

44

52.2

51.6

52.4

.536

.516

22.4%

43.2%

65.6%

-0.1%

-2.7%

The Braves are 15-8 in one-run games, the best record in the National League.
4

52

47

43.8

41.4

42.8

.455

.474

0.2%

3.5%

3.7%

0.1%

-0.5%

The Orioles are like that character in a movie that nobody believes in and then at the very end of the movie he gets killed.
5

49

50

52.9

54.5

54.6

.533

.553

1.2%

12.2%

13.4%

0.7%

-18.4%

In a must-win series in New York, the Red Sox will start Aaron Cook, the remains of Jon Lester, and Felix Doubront. This is a cautionary tale but of what I'm not sure.
6

53

45

54.7

53.8

54.1

.550

.570

55.1%

20.7%

75.8%

1.0%

1.7%

The White Sox were off yesterday so Adam Dunn only struck out once.
7

40

57

40.4

38.4

38.8

.406

.387

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Who knew that, despite a history of losing as extensive as any in the sport, Chicago would have to drag Ryan Dempster out the door kicking and screaming? Know why? Free pinball in the home clubhouse.
8

58

40

55.9

53.2

53.0

.561

.542

66.9%

25.8%

92.7%

0.0%

10.5%

For his off day, Aroldis Chapman went on a date. But when he went to kiss her goodnight, he struck out. Then he realized that wasn't funny because he strikes people out, he doesn't strike out himself. So he went back to her house and punched her out in the front yard. There, he thought. Much better. /scene
9

50

49

45.0

49.2

49.7

.490

.510

5.5%

9.3%

14.8%

3.6%

-10.5%

People aren't really talking about the Indians as a potential playoff team, but they have a better record than either Boston, Toronto or... actually, that's about it. Never mind.
10

37

60

40.7

38.0

37.9

.396

.377

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies have 37 triples on the year, five more than second place San Francisco and 10 more than third place San Diego.
11

53

46

51.6

52.9

53.8

.534

.554

39.4%

29.8%

69.2%

-2.4%

11.9%

Justin Verlander gave up back-to-back home runs on back-to-back pitches then he turned his back-to-back and headed back-to-back to the mound. And the Tigers lost.
12

34

66

37.7

36.7

36.3

.362

.343

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros have a new promotion to bring people to the park. If you buy enough group seats you can field the team yourself. That's why they lost to the Pirates again, as Larry in Accounting dropped an easy pop-fly and then struck out with the bases full. You suck, Larry!
13

41

57

42.8

41.5

41.9

.427

.446

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Royals team OPS is 15th in baseball and they're a young lineup so there is a strong chance for improvement in future years. KC's ERA is fifth-worst in baseball and they're just terrible. Solving that will define or end Dayton Moore's tenure as GM.
14

53

47

50.7

48.7

48.4

.502

.482

13.7%

8.0%

21.7%

-5.3%

-1.0%

It's a shame the Dodgers play in the same league as the Marlins because Hanley Ramirez would be hitting .500/.667/.833 if he had changed leagues.
15

45

53

40.5

43.2

43.8

.440

.420

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-3.0%

Will anyone be offended if Jeffrey Loria trades the rest of the team and rents out the Marlins' new ballpark during August and September? Great, thanks.
16

44

54

46.9

47.6

46.3

.471

.451

0.0%

0.7%

0.7%

-0.5%

-10.0%

If he keeps .314/.396/.612 up, Ryan Braun may hear his name mentioned in the MVP debate.
17

40

58

38.5

41.1

41.3

.411

.430

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins starting pitching badly needs some strike outs as they're last in the league. But in their defense they can't play the Twins.
18

59

39

57.4

57.5

58.0

.592

.611

97.7%

1.7%

99.4%

-0.3%

-0.1%

Losing Alex Rodriguez to a broken pinky finger is both tough luck and, I'm sorry, a little bit funny. Not in a "glad he's hurt" way but in a "the pinky is a funny finger to break" way.
19

48

51

49.0

50.1

51.0

.500

.480

0.1%

2.7%

2.8%

1.2%

-14.3%

Matt Harvey was electric in the Mets win, but the team is still 6 1/2 games out of the Wild Card with three teams ahead of them.
20

53

45

52.8

50.3

51.2

.529

.549

1.7%

26.6%

28.3%

-2.2%

16.3%

Eight straight wins was not to be, but anyone who doubts the A's clearly hasn't read that book that Billy Beane wrote about himself where he claims he invented baseball.
21

45

54

46.6

47.8

46.8

.470

.450

0.3%

0.7%

1.0%

0.5%

-0.1%

Next season the Phillies will owe $69 million to Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, and Cliff Lee. Hamels is the youngest with the best track record of health, so clearly the Phillies must trade Cole Hamels.
22

56

42

53.5

50.8

49.7

.536

.516

12.6%

41.8%

54.4%

6.1%

3.6%

Everything is coming up Milhouse for the Pirates lately as prospect Starling Marte hit the first pitch he saw in the majors out of the park while A.J. Burnett pitched well. It's like some sort of bad movie that the studios would agree to because they can make enough money off product placement that it won't matter if anyone actually sees it.
23

42

58

42.8

43.4

42.0

.426

.406

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

The Padres plans for moving the fences in next season are fine, though they might want to consider not laying them down as well. Upright fences are sort of a baseball tradition.
24

44

57

48.9

45.7

46.5

.458

.478

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jason Vargas gave up just one hit over eight innings so probably time to trade him too.
25

55

43

51.3

52.3

52.1

.537

.518

78.8%

5.3%

84.1%

1.6%

-0.7%

I'd make a "The Giants just signed Jason Kendall" joke but 1) they still might, and 2) if they do you know he'll hit .300 and play the best defense he's played in a decade.
26

53

46

59.3

60.4

58.3

.584

.564

20.5%

50.0%

70.5%

-0.8%

14.3%

The Cardinals hit 16 singles against Dodger pitching which is the most since another team hit that many or more some time ago.
27

51

48

50.5

49.1

50.3

.508

.527

0.9%

15.7%

16.6%

-3.6%

-3.7%

James Shields has a 5.18 ERA over the past two months. My theory: he's turning into a pumpkin in anticipation of the Rays trading him,
28

58

39

57.6

61.0

60.0

.610

.628

85.8%

13.2%

99.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

The Rangers lead baseball in both runs and RBIs. That there is a crazy coincidence.
29

49

49

50.4

48.3

49.3

.503

.523

0.0%

1.7%

1.7%

0.3%

0.3%

26, 21, 16: Edwin Encarnacion's three previous highs in home runs hit. Last night he hit his 27th.
30

59

39

58.6

59.5

58.0

.600

.580

77.2%

18.2%

95.4%

1.9%

7.3%

"The Nationals are in first place and oh, they just beat... ooooo fooootbaaaaaaall traaaaaaaaaaaiin caaaaaaaamp..." - All of Washington DC around 10am Thursday

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


12 comments have been left for this article.
Hendo

But... but it's FUN to speculate on how long it will take RG3 and the Redskins to develop a mutual loathing!

Whereas Strasburg will probably be a National for most or all of the next 20 years. Boooooring, dude.

Jul 27, 2012 08:47 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

If he's as good as they say it'll be difficult for Redskins fans to loath him or even dislike him. As for Strasburg, he's under team control for four more years following this one (I believe), but I don't think anything is guaranteed after that.

Or were you kidding and I badly missed it?

Jul 27, 2012 11:05 AM
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Hendo

Half kidding. Maybe not even that much. Maybe a quarter.

Under current ownership, the Redskins would have been absolutely capable of destroying Bart Starr.

And if Strasburg leaves after four more years, it'll only be because Rizzo precedes him out the door.

Jul 27, 2012 11:34 AM
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robinlloyd

A domestic violence joke? Really?

Jul 27, 2012 09:17 AM
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+6

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Blackmax

I don't quite get the joke(s) about the Pirates. Care to elaborate?

Jul 27, 2012 09:35 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Basically that the Pirates season has been so unbelievable that no movie studio would believe it. The only way they'd green-light it would be if they could make enough through product placement that ticket sales wouldn't matter.

Sorry if that wasn't particularly clear. I guess they can't all be winners.

Jul 27, 2012 11:07 AM
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Ogremace

The Rangers are 5th in baseball with 116 HR; the leader is the Yankees with 153.

Jul 27, 2012 09:50 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Sorry, that should have been "runs and RBIs." Don't know how the "home" got in there. Fixed.

Jul 27, 2012 11:02 AM
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Morris Greenberg

Since when were the Giants in 2nd and the Padres in 3rd?

Jul 27, 2012 10:45 AM
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lonechicken

I like that Twins line. It sounds like Norm MacDonald wrote it.

Jul 27, 2012 12:25 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Probably not surprisingly I'll take that as a big compliment.

Jul 27, 2012 12:58 PM
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HalfStreet

I liked the Pirates joke, especially since it started with "coming up Milhouse." More than that, though, I don't believe any movie made in America sets you up that way.

The Reds one was on the edge.

I am most interested in the Nats one, though. You really nailed the local bent, but I am excited that ground-floor fans like Hendo and I are finally seeing the entire DMV (DC-Maryland-Virginia) really getting into the Nats. The Washington Post has not put nearly the amount of ink into the Redskins that they used to before training camps actually open.

The problem is, although I expected New York-style coverage from the very beginning, I am starting to understand that having some marquee players really does make a difference in how interesting your team is.

+1/2St.

Jul 27, 2012 16:34 PM
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