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Prospectus Hit List for July 26



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 25 Hit List for July 27
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Whoa, we just noticed some interesting things about each team!

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC% Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

59

39

57.4

57.5

58.0

.592

.611

98.9%

1.0%

99.9%

0.6%

-0.1%

In his Yankees debut, Ichiro went 1-for-4. Other famous Yankees who have gone 1-for-4 include Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig (multiple times), and Joe DiMaggio.
2

58

39

57.6

61.0

59.9

.610

.628

85.3%

13.7%

99.0%

0.1%

-0.1%

The Rangers just won two out of three from the Red Sox using their fourth starter and two fill-ins. Against any other team that would be impressive.
3

58

39

57.4

59.0

57.6

.598

.579

76.2%

16.9%

93.1%

1.0%

2.6%

The Nationals are 11th in baseball in OPS, yet they have a player who hits .323/.400/.548 and they keep him on the bench four out of five days. Free Stephen Strasburg!
4

58

40

55.9

53.2

53.0

.561

.542

67.5%

25.3%

92.8%

-0.7%

7.9%

Aroldis Chapman pitched an inning and struck only one hitter out. This should be your key to grab all your money from the bank and bury it in the backyard.
5

55

43

51.3

52.3

52.2

.538

.518

74.9%

7.7%

82.6%

-4.1%

-4.8%

The Giants have won six of Tim Lincecum's 21 starts. The Giants are in first place by 2 1/2 games. Challenge: reconcile those two sentences.
6

54

45

55.0

56.3

56.8

.561

.580

13.0%

63.0%

76.0%

-4.3%

-2.1%

Mike Trout's home runs by season: 1 in 2009, 10 in 2010, 13 in 2011 and 21 already (16 in MLB) this year.
7

53

45

54.7

53.8

54.1

.550

.570

53.3%

21.1%

74.4%

-0.4%

-2.3%

The last time Jake Peavy was this good was 2008 with San Diego. But have no worries, fans of predictability, because Kevin Youkilis is hurt.
8

53

45

51.3

52.5

53.5

.537

.556

42.8%

29.2%

72.0%

5.9%

22.7%

Regarding Jose Valverde: Aren't there unwritten rules in baseball on flailing about after getting a save in which you gave up a home run, and if not shouldn't someone not write them down?
9

52

46

58.5

59.3

57.2

.579

.559

21.4%

49.9%

71.3%

1.7%

16.9%

The Cardinals have virtually the same record as the Dodgers, but the Dodgers are 2 1/2 games out of their division while St. Louis is six games out. Nothing breaks right for St. Louis this year.
10

54

44

52.2

51.6

52.4

.536

.516

23.6%

42.2%

65.8%

1.7%

1.6%

Reportedly, the hang-up with getting Ryan Dempster from Chicago is Dempster's intense dislike of Atlanta-style pizza.
11

55

42

52.8

50.1

49.0

.533

.513

11.0%

37.0%

48.0%

-5.6%

-5.5%

About the only chink in Andrew McCutchen's armour is his platoon split. Against left-handed pitching he has a 1.259 OPS, but against right-handed pitching that drops to .995. Barely playable!
12

53

44

53.0

50.4

51.2

.535

.555

1.7%

29.4%

31.1%

13.9%

22.8%

Coco Crisp homered twice, the A's won their seventh straight game and are now tied for the Wild Card lead. Normally there'd be a joke here but I'm too shocked to come up with one.
13

53

46

50.6

49.0

48.7

.508

.488

15.6%

12.0%

27.6%

12.9%

8.5%

Contrary to popular reports, the Dodgers aren't planning on much free agent spending. Instead they're focusing on developing hover cars so as to avoid paying any more money to Frank McCourt�s parking lots.
14

51

47

50.4

48.9

50.0

.511

.531

0.5%

18.7%

19.2%

-0.4%

0.6%

Jeff Keppinger is hitting .322/.394/.427 on the season. If the Rays had one magic wish, they should have used it on world peace or killing Hitler instead.
15

49

49

51.8

53.7

52.6

.528

.508

9.5%

6.1%

15.6%

-5.9%

-2.1%

Paper posters with tiny precut pull-off phone numbers have been seen on phone poles around Phoenix asking for the safe return of Justin Upton's power.
16

49

50

52.9

54.5

54.6

.533

.553

0.6%

11.9%

12.5%

-3.7%

-17.4%

Bobby Valentine on shortstop Mike Aviles: "I don�t necessarily want Mike to walk." That's good. With 13 walks in 391 plate appearances, Aviles is not.
17

49

49

44.3

48.6

49.1

.487

.507

3.9%

6.8%

10.7%

-6.3%

-23.1%

It finally got so smoky that Derek Lowe dropped and broke his mirror.
18

51

47

42.9

40.7

42.1

.451

.471

0.0%

3.8%

3.8%

-2.4%

0.1%

Perhaps the oddest thing about the Orioles season is that even though they are getting progressively farther from first place they remain in second place.
19

48

49

49.3

47.4

48.3

.497

.517

0.0%

1.4%

1.4%

-2.8%

-1.1%

Sure, the A�s led in just about every category in a 16-0 win over the Blue Jays. But I found one category in which the Jays topped Oakland: errors.
20

47

51

48.3

49.4

50.3

.497

.477

0.2%

1.2%

1.4%

-1.3%

-10.1%

The Mets sent down Lucas Duda, which you probably already know because the internet let out a collective and plaintive, "Aw, duuuuuuude..."
21

44

53

47.0

47.0

45.7

.474

.454

0.1%

1.2%

1.3%

0.5%

-10.5%

Things are looking bleak in Milwaukee. By the time the Brewers get better they may have moved back to Seattle.
22

45

54

46.6

47.8

46.8

.470

.450

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

-0.1%

-0.5%

It's hard to hate the Cole Hamels contract in a vacuum, but since the contract was signed outside a vacuum it's safe to hate it.
23

42

58

42.8

43.4

42.0

.426

.406

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

Jason Marquis badly outpitched Tim Lincecum, which was the only thing that Tim Lincecum did better than Jason Marquis.
24

37

60

40.7

38.0

37.9

.396

.377

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies are 8-2 in games pitched by Jeff Francis. Savor that for a moment.
25

34

65

37.4

36.5

36.1

.363

.345

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros have also posted most of their roster on Craig's List.
26

41

56

42.6

41.7

42.3

.432

.452

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Is there a better emblem for a team than Luke Hochevar? Drafted first overall, with a career ERA of 5.28, .
27

45

53

40.5

43.2

43.7

.440

.420

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

-4.1%

Trading away expensive underperformers can be a sound strategy if, and only if, your team is 45-53 and 13 1/2 games back of first place by July 26th. [checks manual] Wow. You guys aren't going to believe this.
28

40

58

38.5

41.1

41.4

.411

.430

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins have given up 521 runs on the season. How bad is that? No team has yet scored 500 runs.
29

43

57

48.1

44.4

45.2

.452

.471

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.2%

0.0%

Seeing that Yankees manager Joe Girardi was set to bat Ichiro leadoff, Mariners manager Eric Wedge got up to go talk to him about it. Then he sat down. Not my problem anymore, he thought.
30

40

57

40.4

38.4

38.8

.406

.387

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

This is the hottest year ever recorded in the United States. Matt Garza, then, adds extra value in a deal to any drought-stricken region, with his considerable expectorations.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


6 comments have been left for this article.
Hendo

Jim Riggleman was known to employ Jason Marquis as a pinch hitter. Davey Johnson would probably do the same with Strasburg if it wasn't so damn difficult to get him into and out of the bubble wrap.

Jul 26, 2012 10:32 AM
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maphal

I'm sure this has been asked before, but how is the hit list compiled? Is it a weighted system, where we hypothesize that the Red Sox would be 20 games over .500 if they played in the NL Central or West?

Jul 26, 2012 11:45 AM
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bobbygrace

The order is determined by the Adjusted Hit List Factor. Hover over the "AHLF" at the top of the page; there's a brief explanation and a link to a detailed Jay Jaffe article on how the Hit List is ordered.

Jul 26, 2012 12:50 PM
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newsense

"the only chink in Andrew McCutchen's AMOUR..."

You're writing about his love life? I hope you don't mean he's dating an Asian girl.

Jul 26, 2012 13:03 PM
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Hendo

In which case, the remark about "platoon split" is unquestionably in bad taste.

Jul 26, 2012 13:12 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

That's a typo. The "R" got dropped somehow. Should be "armour."

Jul 26, 2012 14:58 PM
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