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Prospectus Hit List for July 25



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 24 Hit List for July 26
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Astros are last on our list, which we can probably just get used to for while.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC% Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

41

55

42.6

41.9

42.5

.437

.457

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

You have to admire the Royals' attempts at beating the big boys, if not the results so far. Note: this is easier to write after the Royals have won.
2

41

58

42.0

42.3

40.9

.419

.400

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Now that Carlos Quentin has signed with the Padres they can start to organize the injury that will inevitably cause his Achilles to role up inside his leg like a window shade.
3

40

57

38.6

41.0

41.2

.415

.434

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If you want to know who is hitting well on the Twins you can just check the trade rumor sites.
4

34

64

37.1

36.1

35.6

.364

.346

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Having dealt Brett Myers, Carlos Lee, and now Wandy Rodriguez, the Astros are setting themselves up to achieve the ever-elusive negative payroll.
5

36

60

40.1

37.4

37.2

.392

.373

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The 2012 Rockies have the worst record in franchise history, by quite a margin. They must go 31-36 just to match the 1993 Rockies, the previous worst.
6

40

56

40.1

37.9

38.3

.407

.388

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Most analysts would take an OBP 90 points higher than batting average, and an isolated power around .170 from a catcher. Geovany Soto's .186/.273/.335 isn't what they had in mind.
7

43

56

47.9

44.5

45.1

.456

.476

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

Over the past two days, 62,000 (mostly) Mariners fans have said their goodbyes to Ichiro. That's 7,500 more people per game than the Mariners typically draw. It will be interesting to see what the drop-off is when the Royals come to town on Thursday.
8

44

54

46.0

47.6

46.7

.470

.450

0.0%

0.3%

0.3%

-0.1%

-1.6%

The Phillies have walked the fewest batters in baseball but have allowed the eighth-most runs. Read: Phillies pitchers know where the strike zone is and opposing hitters know to look for the ball over the plate because Phillies pitchers know where the strike zone is.
9

45

52

40.6

43.1

43.6

.444

.425

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

-0.2%

-4.2%

After completing the Hanley Ramirez trade with the Dodgers, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria put on his top hat, put in his monocle, went to his money room (labeled "$$$") and shut the door.
10

44

52

46.6

46.2

44.9

.473

.453

0.0%

0.7%

0.7%

-3.9%

-11.2%

In what very well may have been Zack Greinke's last start in a Brewers uniform, the pen imploded and cost him a win. Or as he calls it, old reliable.
11

47

50

48.1

49.4

50.2

.502

.482

0.2%

3.0%

3.2%

-0.9%

-11.2%

Ichiro was traded. Ditto Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez. All less newsworthy than this: R.A. Dickey just lost a game!
12

48

48

50.4

48.0

48.9

.508

.528

0.1%

4.3%

4.4%

-1.3%

1.0%

Brett Lawrie was thrown out trying to get to third base on a fly ball in the first inning with Edwin Encarnacion coming to bat. At what point does hustle cross the line into stupidity?
13

51

46

43.4

41.2

42.6

.459

.479

0.5%

5.7%

6.2%

-2.2%

2.6%

Adam Jones is having a breakout season, with 23 homers so far. Sure, in 414 plate appearances he's walked 20 times, but that'll be a problem for two years from now when they unload his contract on the Tigers for pennies on the dollar.
14

53

45

50.2

48.7

48.1

.510

.490

7.8%

6.6%

14.4%

-17.8%

-3.8%

Picking up Hanley Ramirez might not make the Dodgers' hitting good, but it does make them not as bad. Guess $30 million doesnít buy what it used to.
15

49

48

44.0

48.4

48.9

.490

.510

5.2%

11.9%

17.1%

2.8%

-13.6%

Travis Hafner's triple was his first since May 7 of this season. Before that, Hafner's previous triple had come five years earlier, in May of 2007.
16

52

44

50.6

48.6

49.6

.523

.543

0.5%

16.8%

17.3%

-3.3%

11.0%

The A's are in second place in the AL West and tied for the Wild Card lead. If you rearrange all the letters in that sentence you'll spell, "The Earth is falling off its axis, all life as we know it is ending. Eat at Joe's." Drat. For a second I thought I had something there.
17

49

49

52.6

54.4

54.3

.537

.556

1.0%

16.5%

17.5%

3.3%

-7.6%

The Red Sox won but for the second start in a row they were shut down by a substitute staring pitcher. With the deadline approaching, as well as a weekend series in New York, Boston needs the offense to show up, because it's almost guaranteed the pitching won't.
18

50

47

48.9

47.3

48.6

.502

.522

0.6%

18.4%

19.0%

1.6%

-1.3%

In some ways Jeremy Hellickson is the perfect pitcher to sign long-term because if he loses 5 mph off his fastball he'll also lose 5 mph off his changeup. No harm done!
19

49

48

51.5

53.4

52.3

.531

.511

11.0%

10.6%

21.6%

0.5%

5.5%

As proof that the American League is far more difficult than the National League I offer you Exhibit A: Joe Saunders' ERA of 3.doesn't-matter-after-that.
20

54

42

52.2

49.5

48.7

.532

.512

10.8%

42.9%

53.7%

-2.5%

7.5%

Why did the Pirates acquire Wandy Rodriguez? Erik Bedard has made 19 starts this season with nary a DL trip. Isn't it time for his ear to fall off?
21

53

44

51.0

50.8

51.6

.532

.512

24.6%

40.0%

64.6%

6.8%

-2.9%

Not only does Tim Hudson have a 3.71 ERA in 104 1/3 innings this season but he's hitting .200/.235/.233. Doesn't sound impressive? No? OK, try doing something for four days, then on the fifth day hop in the batters box against major league pitching and see what the numbers look like.
22

52

45

50.6

51.7

52.6

.533

.553

39.0%

27.4%

66.4%

-4.6%

22.9%

The Tigers acquired Anibal Sanchez. Are you trying to tell me Doug Fister isn't an acceptable no. 2 starter on a championship team?
23

51

46

57.9

58.6

56.5

.577

.558

17.4%

51.4%

68.8%

8.3%

8.9%

There are a lot of pretty bad big-money free agent contracts that have been given out, but Matt Holliday's deal is to date not one of them. Holiday's OPS in St. Louis is .937, which is a single point lower than his unachievable ballpark-aided numbers in Colorado.
24

52

45

53.6

52.9

53.3

.546

.566

55.8%

18.0%

73.8%

4.9%

-9.4%

Adam Dunn hit his 30th homer and had two other hits, going 3-for-5. And yes, of course, he struck out twice.
25

53

45

54.0

55.1

55.7

.555

.575

17.5%

62.6%

80.1%

-0.6%

-4.3%

Mike Trout went 0-for-3. But he had a walk! And he played his usual outstanding defense. Even on Trout's worst day he's good.
26

55

42

51.1

52.4

52.3

.543

.524

81.2%

5.4%

86.6%

2.5%

0.3%

When Angel Pagan and Brandon Crawford come at you the smart move is to hit the big red EJECT! button which is kinda the approach the Padres bullpen took.
27

57

39

56.6

57.9

56.5

.594

.575

75.1%

17.1%

92.2%

4.7%

4.2%

The Nationals keep winning, but Bryce Harper struck out three times. His OPS has fallen each month. In July itís .676.
28

57

40

55.2

52.6

52.5

.560

.540

71.8%

21.8%

93.6%

2.6%

8.6%

The Reds have won their last six and are pulling away from the rest of their division. See? I knew the problem was that Joey Votto guy all along!
29

57

39

56.9

60.1

58.9

.607

.625

82.0%

16.8%

98.8%

-1.0%

-1.0%

That wasn't a game the Rangers should have won based on the pitching matchup unless you consider the fact that they were facing the Red Sox starting staff.
30

58

39

56.6

56.5

56.9

.588

.607

97.8%

1.4%

99.2%

0.2%

-0.5%

In the sixth inning, Alex Rodriguez struck out for the 2,000 time in his career. In the eighth inning, he was hit on the wrist and left the game. In the ninth inning, the Yankees lost. Tough day at the office.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


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