Quantcast

Prospectus Hit List for July 24



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 23 Hit List for July 25
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Six of the top seven teams are in the American League.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC% Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

57

38

56.4

59.4

58.3

.608

.627

86.6%

13.2%

99.8%

0.7%

0.5%

After embarrassing the Red Sox pitching staff, for their next trick the Rangers will take a breath.
2

58

38

56.3

55.9

56.4

.590

.609

97.3%

1.8%

99.1%

0.7%

-0.2%

Now that Ichiro joined Derek Jeter's Yankees, we can finally answer the age-old question: is it possible for two consecutive batters to ground into a double play?
3

56

40

54.4

51.7

51.7

.557

.537

69.5%

21.3%

90.8%

2.5%

8.1%

The Reds three through six hitters went 11-for-24. That's one way to win a ballgame. Another is playing the Astros. The Reds did both.
4

56

39

55.8

56.9

55.6

.590

.571

70.9%

17.0%

87.9%

5.1%

2.4%

Bryce Harper hit a two-run homer and drove in the winning run in his first time ever facing the Mets in New York. FItting, as you'll recall he's a Yankees fan.
5

54

42

50.5

51.9

51.9

.542

.523

75.8%

8.6%

84.4%

3.0%

2.4%

How good is Buster Posey? He's better than Tim Beckham, Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, and Brian Matusz put together, though that would be one tall player.
6

53

44

53.8

55.0

55.7

.561

.580

12.8%

69.0%

81.8%

1.3%

3.6%

Kendrys Morales hit a game-winning single with the bases loaded. How much do you want to bet he was hoping he wouldn't hit a home run?
7

52

44

50.2

51.2

52.1

.535

.555

46.0%

25.7%

71.7%

0.9%

21.4%

TIger pitchers have the fewest number of groundball outs in baseball.
8

51

45

52.4

51.6

52.1

.540

.559

46.6%

21.4%

68.0%

5.3%

-7.2%

Gavin Floyd posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1-to-6. Who won the game? I don't even have to say it.
9

50

46

56.8

57.8

55.6

.573

.554

15.7%

44.7%

60.4%

-4.3%

-1.1%

How fragile is baseball success? The middle of the Cardinals lineup, Holliday, Beltran, and Berkman would have been pretty solid 10 years ago.
10

52

44

50.4

49.8

50.7

.528

.509

28.2%

29.1%

57.3%

-7.0%

-19.4%

Braves pitching hasn't walked a hitter in 12 innings! That probably isn't that much but if you say it with the appropriate background music it can sound super important.
11

54

41

52.1

49.4

48.6

.537

.517

14.5%

42.7%

57.2%

-5.9%

16.4%

Baseball's OPS leader is Andrew McCutchen at 1.071. That has been written recently in this space, I know, but did I mention Andrew McCutchen plays for the Pirates? Also, he is Baseball's OPS leader at 1.071!
12

53

44

50.4

48.6

47.9

.515

.495

15.2%

16.6%

31.8%

5.0%

10.3%

The Dodgers are starting Bobby Abreu, Juan Rivera, and Adam Kennedy. T-minus something soon until they trade for Jason Kendall.
13

48

48

50.5

52.3

51.3

.527

.507

9.0%

11.7%

20.7%

3.5%

3.5%

Ian Kennedy entered last night's game hitting .036/.250/.036. He left it hitting .065/.256/.129. Aww yeeeah.
14

51

44

49.5

48.0

49.0

.520

.540

0.6%

19.9%

20.5%

-0.3%

11.6%

The A's best hitter is probably Yoenis Cespedes, who has an .888 OPS until pitchers realize he'll swing at airplanes flying overhead.
15

49

47

48.2

46.4

47.9

.499

.519

1.0%

15.9%

16.9%

-1.1%

0.2%

The Rays are 8-16 against the AL Central, making them one of only two AL teams to post a losing record against that division.
16

48

48

43.4

47.9

48.3

.489

.509

7.4%

7.1%

14.5%

-0.4%

-18.5%

Over his last seven starts, Justin Masterson has given up (past to present): 0, 4, 1, 8, 0, 4, 1. Notice a pattern? If this were one of those SAT questions you'd probably get into the college of your choice.
17

48

49

52.0

53.9

53.8

.535

.555

0.6%

13.2%

13.8%

-3.3%

-16.9%

What is there left to say about the way the Red Sox are playing that hasn't already been said about a pile of burning money?
18

51

45

43.1

41.1

42.5

.463

.483

1.0%

7.4%

8.4%

-2.6%

3.7%

The Orioles had hits in every inning except the first and ninth. They ended up with one run as just one of those seven innings contained more than one hit, and that inning resulted in, yes, a man thrown out at the plate.
19

48

47

50.4

47.6

48.5

.512

.532

0.1%

5.4%

5.5%

-1.1%

1.9%

Alex Anthopoulos is currently trying to butt in on a deal between his pancakes and his syrup.
20

44

51

46.2

45.2

43.8

.472

.452

0.3%

4.4%

4.7%

0.5%

-4.1%

Now that he's off drugs, the fraud that Ryan Braun is can easily be seen in his OPS, which has dropped from .994 last season all the way to .982 this season.
21

47

49

47.9

49.4

50.1

.506

.486

0.7%

3.2%

3.9%

-1.9%

-15.2%

The Mets, in what can only be described as an act of cruelty towards their own, used seven pitchers, five of whom lasted less than an inning. They lost because it made the Baseball Gods late for their dinner date.
22

45

51

40.3

43.1

43.5

.448

.428

0.2%

0.3%

0.5%

-0.4%

-3.0%

The Marlins spent hundreds of millions of dollars bringing in new players, a new manager, and building a new ballpark. Now, just over half a season later, they're in last place. Time to blow it up and move! Maybe Castro will build them a new park in Havana.
23

43

54

45.4

47.6

46.7

.471

.451

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

-0.1%

-0.3%

The Phillies are 10 games out of a Wild Card spot, 14 out of first place, and one of only three teams with an average age over 30. My point: trade the Phanatic!
24

42

56

47.2

44.0

44.6

.454

.473

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

First base is where teams traditionally stash players who can hit but can't do much else. Justin Smoak is a first baseman. He is hitting .191/.255/.323. That, historically speaking, is awful. And that, actually speaking, is why he's been sent back to Triple-A.
25

40

56

38.7

41.2

41.3

.420

.440

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Joe Mauer went 1-for-3 with a single. His hair went 5-for-5 with five homers. The Twins lost anyway.
26

41

57

41.6

41.8

40.4

.420

.401

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In 67 plate appearances Yasmani Grandal is hitting .299/.309/.582. Small sample size yourself to death, buzz killers, this is something for Padres fans to get excited about.
27

40

55

41.8

41.0

41.5

.432

.452

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

It's so surprising that this whole Bruce Chen thing isn't working out. I mean, really, who could have seen that coming?
28

34

63

36.8

35.9

35.3

.366

.348

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Houston traded closer Brett Myers to the White Sox over the weekend. Now, without their closer how will the Astros finish in last place?!
29

36

59

39.9

37.4

37.2

.396

.377

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jonathan Sanchez walked four and allowed five runs in four innings in his Colorado debut. And his Colorado debut wasn't even in Colorado. So this still has a few extra ugly miles to go.
30

39

56

39.1

37.1

37.4

.402

.383

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Who thought the Cubs would be playing spoiler in mid-July? Probably a lot of very smart people.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


7 comments have been left for this article.
rbrianc

Morales hit a bases loaded single off the wall, not a SF.

Jul 24, 2012 06:40 AM
up_image

+1

down_image
 
BP staff member Matt Kory

You are correct. My mistake.

Jul 24, 2012 12:16 PM
up_image

0

down_image
 
FlemSnopes

Six of the top seven teams are in the AL because BP adjusts the hit list factor to make that so. The picture is very different if you look at the unadjusted hit list factor.

Jul 24, 2012 07:02 AM
up_image

0

down_image
 
Shaun P.

I hate to be the dude who brings in facts to ruin a perfectly fine line, but you've brought me so many laughs and strange looks from colleagues ("What is he laughing about now?"), I feel obligated to point this out.

Ten years ago, Matt Holliday was putting up a .276/.375/.391 line for Carolina in the AA Southern League. Admittedly, that was a horrible league to hit in - the league as a whole hit .256/.336/.374 - but I'm pretty sure the Cards are much happier with the present day version of Holliday (.321/.403/.534).

Jul 24, 2012 08:42 AM
up_image

+1

down_image
 
BP staff member Matt Kory

That's right. Holliday is younger than I thought. I could swear I recall hearing he was 35 this season, but clearly that's not the case. Good catch. My bad.

Jul 24, 2012 12:18 PM
up_image

0

down_image
 
BP staff member Matt Kory

By the way, thanks for the compliment, but it's my job to get the facts right and make the lines work around that, not to bend the facts for a good line. So thanks to you for bringing that to my attention.

Jul 24, 2012 12:19 PM
up_image

0

down_image
 
Shaun P.

Well, as they say, why let facts get in the way of a good story? ;)

Jul 25, 2012 13:37 PM
up_image

0

down_image
 
Sorry, fantasy subscribers cannot comment on exclusive premium content.
<< Previous Article
What You Need to Know:... (07/24)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (07/23)
Next Column >>
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (07/25)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Collateral Damage Dail... (07/24)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article Free Agent Watch: Week Four
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Wednesday, Apr...
Premium Article Skewed Left: The Squandered Promise of the D...
Premium Article Explaining Spending
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: Platoonies Never Say Die
Overthinking It: The Obligatory Article Abou...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Pineda and Pine Tar, ...

MORE FROM JULY 24, 2012 09:07 AM
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Tigers Shore Up Proble...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Ichiro Bound for the B...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Dempster the Brave?
Fantasy Article Value Picks: First, Third, and DH for 7/24/1...
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Lester's Losses
Premium Article Collateral Damage Daily: Tuesday, July 24
What You Need to Know: Tuesday, July 24

MORE BY MATTHEW KORY
2012-07-27 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, July 27
2012-07-26 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, July 26
2012-07-25 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, July 25
2012-07-24 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Tuesday, July 24
2012-07-23 - Out of Left Field: The Conundrum of Pitcher ...
2012-07-23 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, July 23
2012-07-23 - BP Unfiltered: Franklin Morales Fools Nobody
More...

MORE THE PROSPECTUS HIT LIST
2012-07-27 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, July 27
2012-07-26 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, July 26
2012-07-25 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, July 25
2012-07-24 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Tuesday, July 24
2012-07-23 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, July 23
2012-07-20 - The Prospectus Hit List: Friday, July 20
2012-07-19 - Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Thursday, July 19
More...