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Prospectus Hit List for July 23



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 20 Hit List for July 24
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Texas at the top, Houston at the bottom, the rest of America in the middle.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div% Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

52

44

53.0

54.4

55.1

.559

.578

9.9%

68.8%

78.7%

3.0%

-5.3%

Most players go through an aging curve. They start off badly and get better. Mike Trout is 20, and hitting .357/.412/.603. Can he really get better?
2

54

40

51.8

49.2

48.4

.541

.521

21.1%

41.1%

62.2%

5.3%

15.9%

Andrew McCutchen has a 1.086 OPS. Pedro Alvarez has 21 homers on the season, and Jeff Karstens has an entirely respectable 3.52 ERA. These are true facts and you may choose to deal with them as you see fit.
3

50

45

56.5

57.3

55.1

.576

.556

25.1%

40.9%

66.0%

5.1%

10.7%

Because it's a sport designed to play out over such a long stretch of time, so often in baseball the unexpected happens. That's why when the Cardinals swept the Cubs it was so expected that it was almost totally unforeseeable.
4

55

40

53.4

50.7

50.9

.552

.533

53.0%

35.0%

88.0%

0.2%

0.7%

Aroldis Chapman had two more strikeouts, which brings him to 86. He is 60th in all of baseball in strikeouts. Everyone above him has thrown at least twice as many innings as he has.
5

52

43

50.0

49.6

50.4

.532

.512

30.6%

32.8%

63.4%

-8.6%

-11.0%

Opposing hitters are hitting .350 off Jair Jurrjens. Tony Gwynn was a lifetime .338 hitter.
6

50

45

51.6

51.1

51.7

.538

.558

34.1%

26.7%

60.8%

-5.6%

-20.4%

After homering again last night, Kevin Youkilis has an OPS 200 points higher than the one he posted in Boston. Lucky for Youkilis the scenery in Chicago looks so different.
7

51

44

49.5

48.0

49.0

.520

.540

1.2%

22.0%

23.2%

2.9%

15.7%

The A's are now tied for a Wild Card spot. You A's fans can take a screen grab of that with your Macs by hitting 'Command", "Shift", and "4" at the same time.
8

55

39

54.6

56.1

54.8

.586

.567

68.0%

17.2%

85.2%

4.3%

-0.8%

Ryan Zimmerman is hitting .414/.481/.886 with nine homers in July.
9

52

44

50.2

51.2

52.1

.535

.555

59.3%

16.1%

75.4%

6.5%

33.2%

Miguel Cabrera is so good at hitting home runs that he has started to perfect the art of doing something else while hitting home runs. Today heís baking perfectly flakey pie crusts! Watch out, pitchers!
10

49

47

48.2

46.4

47.9

.499

.519

1.4%

14.8%

16.2%

-4.2%

-5.0%

Eight innings of two-run, seven-strikeout, no-walk ball for Matt Moore lowed his ERA to 4.23. It also begs the question, which one of you slept on Matt Moore? (Seriously. Let me know. Rumor has it he's lumpy.)
11

48

48

52.3

53.7

53.3

.540

.560

1.9%

14.8%

16.7%

-5.9%

-9.3%

Somewhere in the second inning, on the way to giving up 11 runs in four innings, Jon Lester wished a meteorite would descend from the heavens at terminal velocity and end this little experiment called life. It didn't and now Lester has to remember how to pitch.
12

52

44

49.6

48.0

47.3

.513

.493

14.5%

11.7%

26.2%

4.7%

-1.5%

The Dodgers might not be in first place anymore but they're in a great position. They're just a game and a half out of first and they're terrible so upgrading at the trade deadline should be super easy.
13

51

44

42.8

40.8

42.2

.465

.485

0.5%

11.2%

11.7%

3.5%

6.3%

What does it say about the Orioles that their no. 3 hitter spent the majority of the year on the bench of a team that chronically couldn't score? (It says the Orioles are tied for the wild card, hit list Jerk guy.)
14

56

38

55.2

58.7

57.6

.605

.624

88.9%

10.1%

99.0%

0.1%

-0.6%

Josh Hamilton's OPS by month: 1.182, 1.187, .754, and .623.
15

47

48

49.7

51.5

50.6

.523

.503

8.0%

8.2%

16.2%

-0.9%

4.1%

At one game under .500 and with a +21 run differential, the Diamondbacks are in the middle of the pack in virtually every counting and rate stat. Statistically they are as boring a team as is possible, and that, my friends, is so difficult itís exciting!
16

47

48

42.7

47.2

47.7

.486

.506

6.6%

7.6%

14.2%

-1.3%

-14.3%

Two things you didn't know: the Indians have lost four in a row and have been outscored on the year by almost 50 runs. The Indians are four games out in the AL Central.
17

53

42

49.3

51.1

51.1

.538

.518

77.5%

5.2%

82.7%

-5.3%

0.5%

Barry Zito's four-seam fastball has averaged 83.7 mph this season. Last night he struck out seven in seven innings with only one walk. Making sense of those two things will result in you rocking in the corner of your room naked, repeating the phrase, "Makes no sense, mommy, it makes no sense." over and over.
18

48

47

50.4

47.6

48.5

.512

.532

0.3%

4.9%

5.2%

1.1%

0.7%

Toronto starter Henderson Alvarez gave up seven runs in five innings. The Blue Jays won by eight runs. Normally those sentences would be unconnected, but in this instance they refer to the same game. Red Sox pitching: the glue holding them together!
19

44

50

45.8

45.1

43.8

.475

.455

0.8%

4.9%

5.7%

-0.1%

-2.8%

It's hard to concoct a scenario wherein the Brewers compete this year or next. Could we be seeing a bigger sell off in Milwaukee than some analysts are thinking?
20

57

38

55.5

54.9

55.2

.586

.605

95.9%

2.9%

98.8%

0.1%

-0.9%

The four-game losing streak courtesy of the A's is the longest for the Yankees this year. When the worst you do in the course of a season is lose four straight, that's a pretty good season.
21

47

48

48.0

49.1

49.7

.510

.490

1.1%

2.5%

3.6%

-4.4%

-12.1%

Certain things feel like they'll never happen. Growing up, for example. But then once it happens, you miss it because you know you can never go back. The Mets lost and fell below .500 for the first time. Welcome to adulthood.
22

44

51

39.7

42.3

42.7

.444

.424

0.2%

0.3%

0.5%

-0.5%

-2.8%

The Marlins are the sum of their parts in the same way a broken window is the sum of its parts.
23

42

54

44.8

46.7

45.9

.467

.447

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

-0.9%

The Phillies won in extra innings, but for each piece of good news there are at least five pieces of bad news. It's hard to see Cole Hamels not changing the station on As The Phillies Crumble.
24

42

55

47.0

44.2

44.8

.459

.479

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.1%

0.0%

Four hitters in last night's Mariners starting lineup were hitting below .200, including the cleanup hitter. For less depressing trivia, try this: Four other Mariner hitters ended the night hitting exactly .261.
25

36

58

39.7

37.2

37.0

.399

.380

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If the Rockies' runs allowed was their runs scored they'd be the highest-scoring team in baseball by 52 runs.
26

38

56

38.5

36.4

36.7

.398

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

By hitting .329/.360/.524, Anthony Rizzo is giving Cubs fans a reason to hope. How mean of him.
27

34

62

36.8

35.8

35.2

.369

.351

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jose Altuve is hitting .293/.338/.423. I'd say he's come back to Earth, but I don't make short jokes.
28

40

54

41.6

40.6

41.0

.434

.454

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1%

Jeremy Guthrie's Royals debut went about as well as could be expected (five innings pitched, five runs, two walks, four strikeouts). The only positive is it doesn't say "Sanchez" on the back of his jersey.
29

40

55

38.5

40.8

40.8

.421

.441

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

While you weren't paying attention several things happened. Joe Mauer brought his line up to .332/.421/.460 and your dog pooped in your shoe. One of those you'll notice now, the other later.
30

41

56

41.8

41.7

40.2

.424

.405

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

There is nothing better than a series win over the Rockies! Well, maybe a .500 team, but baby steps, right? Even if the organization has won just one playoff game since 1998. Even a slow moving baby will get there eventually. Right?

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
Kris Ericson

From a Marlins fan -- that description is beautiful.

Jul 23, 2012 08:20 AM
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