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Prospectus Hit List for July 18



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 17 Hit List for July 19
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Marlins are below the Twins.

RkTm WLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

56

34

52.7

52.6

53.1

.595

.614

98.2%

1.2%

99.4%

-0.2%

1.0%

The Yankees went 13-6 with C.C. Sabathia on the disabled list. They're 12-4 when Sabathia pitches. The Yankees, it turns out, are good at winning baseball games.
2

55

35

53.3

56.9

55.5

.613

.632

88.6%

11.4%

100.0%

1.1%

1.3%

Are people really surprised that after not pitching for eight months Roy Oswalt hasn't had immediate success pitching in Texas? Really?
3

52

36

51.5

52.7

51.3

.590

.570

63.0%

26.8%

89.8%

5.4%

9.9%

It was a moral victory for the Nationals, who saw Mark DeRosa steal a base! It was also an actual victory. They scored more runs than the Mets.
4

51

39

50.6

48.0

48.1

.549

.529

60.0%

22.4%

82.4%

0.4%

7.5%

Sure Joey Votto is out for a while after knee surgery, but Scott Rolen singled and walked twice, raising his line to .203/.272/.315. Rest easy, Cincinnati.
5

50

40

51.3

50.9

51.3

.565

.585

67.7%

16.1%

83.8%

6.1%

5.8%

Since his perfect game, Phil Humber has done nothing but get crushed and get injured. Last night he managed to do neither of those, and considering his recent history, not accomplishing either was an accomplishment.
6

50

41

51.3

53.1

53.3

.570

.590

11.4%

79.5%

90.9%

10.8%

-1.9%

Three years ago Mike Trout was in high school. Yesterday he went 4-for-6 with a homer, bringing his season line up to .355/.408/.582. Mike Trout: yet another example of someone who didnít end up needing to know Algebra.
7

50

40

48.6

46.4

45.7

.530

.510

14.1%

27.6%

41.7%

6.5%

-1.2%

On Monday, Jose Bautista, Joey Votto, and David Ortiz were all injured. Andrew McCutchen made it through unscathed, but Pittsburghers might be wise to put all ladders, electrical saws, sharp knives, and black cats into hiding for a while.
8

50

40

45.8

47.3

47.2

.529

.509

81.5%

5.5%

87.0%

6.9%

21.0%

You're probably expecting another Barry Zito joke. Nope. Not here. Zito is 8-6 with a 3.86 ERA (and 59 strikeouts and 49 walks in 105 2/3 innings TRADE HIM NOW!) and he's earned a respite.
9

49

40

48.0

47.6

48.1

.541

.521

33.0%

39.0%

72.0%

-6.6%

7.2%

That Dan Ugly contract is getting ugglaer and ugglaer.
10

48

44

46.4

45.8

45.1

.503

.483

13.0%

10.2%

23.2%

-7.7%

-16.8%

Since signing his contract extension, Andre Ethier is hitting .333/.412/.450, which means that, as soon as he starts to slump, the Dodgers should sign him to another extension immediately.
11

47

44

45.6

42.6

44.2

.493

.513

0.8%

25.2%

26.0%

8.8%

-3.0%

Matt Moore hasn't lived up to expectations this season. For example, in six innings he only struck out three guys while walking five. But we may be underselling him here. For example, he was good enough to not walk all five in a row.
12

47

44

45.7

46.5

47.3

.512

.532

19.7%

12.2%

31.9%

-10.3%

-1.6%

Top prospect Jacob Turner's night on the mound went like this: single, walk, single, homer. There's more but you get the gist.
13

47

44

52.3

52.7

51.0

.558

.538

23.4%

36.2%

59.6%

1.9%

-6.1%

The Cardinals' problem is that wonderful Midwest attitude of always wanting to help your neighbor. Sometimes, Cardinals, you can't let the other team win, even if they "really really need it" or "they'll get in trouble if they don't."
14

46

44

39.0

37.8

39.5

.451

.471

0.0%

5.1%

5.1%

-0.9%

-0.4%

With each loss the Orioles slip closer and closer to .500, like some sort of cosmic fate tractor beam is pulling them inexorably towards mediocrity. Zack Britton's one-strikeout, six-walk performance didn't help.
15

46

44

41.5

46.2

47.0

.502

.522

12.6%

14.2%

26.8%

-4.4%

-4.6%

Last night's Indians offensive star was either Michael Brantley, with two walks in four plate appearances, or Jason Kipnis, with a single and a walk in four plate appearances. Text your vote to WORSTWASTEOF75CENTS and help crown the winner!
16

46

45

50.4

51.7

51.2

.548

.567

1.0%

23.6%

24.6%

-8.7%

2.1%

Daniel Nava is having an unexpectedly nice season in Boston (.261/.381/.418), but there must be some irony in his 0-for-3 performance as DH in the no. 3 spot while ex-Red Sox Kevin Youkilis hit the game-winning three-run homer for Chicago.
17

46

44

46.4

43.9

44.4

.502

.522

0.0%

7.5%

7.5%

-1.7%

3.3%

Even with last night's loss, the A's are 9-2 since the start of July. It's a shame there is no real element of surprise in baseball because there are about five people who know that, four if you don't count me because by the time you read this I'll have forgotten.
18

46

44

46.1

46.7

47.2

.517

.497

3.3%

16.1%

19.4%

2.0%

-6.3%

Is there any bigger downer than a game-tying ninth-inning homer that merely leads to an extra-innings loss? I mean, yeah, wet socks are pretty bad too, so sure, it's close.
19

45

46

47.3

44.7

45.7

.502

.522

0.0%

4.7%

4.7%

-0.7%

-1.7%

This may turn out to not be the most successful campaign for the Blue Jays, but if there is one bright and shining beacon of hope it is reliever Sam Dyson, whose 40.50 ERA lets us all think, for a single fleeting moment, "Hey, I can do that!"
20

44

46

38.8

40.6

41.1

.457

.437

0.2%

3.1%

3.3%

-0.5%

-3.9%

What's weirder? That Austin Kerns is still in the majors or that he's hitting .259/.341/.457?
21

43

47

44.6

46.8

46.3

.502

.482

5.5%

5.1%

10.6%

-9.4%

-16.0%

Trevor Bauer has started four games and made it out of the fifth inning once. It's almost like he's 21 years old and we're all supposed to just cut him a break because he's got excellent stuff and he'll get better. Sure. Whatever.
22

43

47

44.5

44.5

42.8

.486

.466

2.5%

7.5%

10.0%

-0.2%

3.5%

The Brewers got contributions from long dormant sources Rickie Weeks, Randy Wolf, and Francisco Rodriguez in their win. Yay! Now itís time to go ahead and trade their best pitcher. Isn't baseball something?
23

41

51

43.5

45.6

44.7

.475

.455

0.5%

1.2%

1.7%

1.3%

1.5%

Roy Halladay finally returned, throwing five innings of two-run, six-strikeout, no-walk ball. While he was out, the Phillies went from four games out of first to 14. Hopefully in addition to getting healthy he taught himself to hit for power.
24

39

53

44.0

41.6

42.3

.453

.473

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Mariners are no longer last in the AL West in runs scored! So, that's something positive. (Please don't ask about runs allowed.)
25

38

52

36.4

38.6

39.0

.422

.442

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Twins starters have 305 strikeouts, 217 fewer than first place Philadelphia.
26

38

51

39.4

38.0

38.6

.433

.452

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

Even without Jonathan Sanchez on the mound or the roster, the Royals' starting pitcher (this time Ryan Verdugo) wasn't able to escape that pesky second inning. What is it about that inning that makes all of Kansas City's bad starting pitchers worse?
27

37

55

38.3

38.8

37.7

.413

.394

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The box score says the Padres had 13 hits and scored eight runs to beat the Astros at home. But, if you use park factors, you can see the Padres really had 31 hits and scored 23 runs. Thanks, Baseball Stats for Dummies!
28

36

53

37.8

36.2

36.6

.412

.392

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Theo Epstein will now take his turn on America's favorite gameshow, Bet You Can't Trade THAT Guy! This week's challenge: Alfonso Soriano. Good luck!
29

35

55

38.3

35.4

35.1

.400

.380

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies have given up 504 runs on the season. The Rockies have little bowls of runs on their secretaries' desks.
30

34

57

36.8

34.8

34.3

.384

.366

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If things continue like this, the Astros may show up at the ballpark sometime late in the year only to find everyone has already left for the American League without them.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
elaurenson

Why are no play-off odds percentages showing up here?

Jul 18, 2012 11:18 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Because nobody is going to make the playoffs!

Seriously, that's a good question. I'll try and find out.

Jul 18, 2012 12:55 PM
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