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Prospectus Hit List for July 17



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 16 Hit List for July 18
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Phillies are below the Royals.

RkTmWLW1W2 W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

54

35

52.3

56.0

54.6

.609

.628

88.3%

10.6%

98.9%

0.2%

1.9%

Michael Young was recently named the most underrated player by other players who are apparently overrating his underratedness.
2

55

34

51.6

51.7

52.3

.592

.611

96.8%

2.8%

99.6%

-0.3%

0.5%

Right field in Yankee Stadium is like a lifetime Homer of the Week membership for left-handed batters.
3

49

41

49.5

51.3

51.6

.559

.579

11.6%

68.5%

80.1%

-5.0%

-7.5%

After the Angels signed Albert Pujols, we all knew someone would be slugging .600 with 25 homers for them at this point. We just didn't think it would be Mark Trumbo.
4

46

44

50.1

51.5

51.0

.552

.572

1.0%

32.3%

33.3%

3.8%

10.0%

David Ortiz leads the American League in OPS, but since he is contractually obligated to wear a Red Sox jersey, some part of his body was bound to malfunction. So who had "Carl Crawford’s first day back" in the pool?
5

51

36

50.9

52.2

50.7

.588

.569

56.8%

27.6%

84.4%

-1.2%

4.1%

Edwin Jackson struck out one Marlin in five innings. It's the second time he has struck out one hitter in a start this year. If you pass that information on at your local coffee shop you'll receive a free espresso shot in your latte. Or they’ll throw you out.
6

49

40

50.6

50.1

50.6

.563

.582

62.8%

15.0%

77.8%

-5.0%

-1.9%

In his return to Boston, Kevin Youkils went 3-for-4 with two doubles. The rest of the White Sox went 2-for-28. If only the White Sox had eight more Kevin Youkilises. Get Ben Cherington on the line. It never hurts to ask.
7

47

43

51.9

52.2

50.6

.560

.540

28.6%

29.1%

57.7%

6.2%

-5.2%

The power of the walk-off win is strong enough it can theoretically propel teams to long winning streaks. Unfortunately it completely dissipates in hours, so get those wins in really really fast.
8

49

39

48.4

47.8

48.3

.550

.530

38.0%

40.6%

78.6%

-3.0%

15.5%

Just 2 1/2 games behind the Nationals, the Braves have a four game series coming up in DC this weekend. Ah, the familiar and unrelenting pressure of who will have to settle for the Wild Card.
9

47

43

46.6

47.3

47.9

.524

.544

23.3%

18.9%

42.2%

9.0%

9.7%

Sixty-nine of the Tigers' 90 games have been started by pitchers with ERAs over 4.35. Of the 21 remaining games, 19 are Justin Verlander starts.
10

50

39

49.6

47.5

47.6

.547

.527

57.2%

24.8%

82.0%

-1.5%

8.1%

News that Joey Votto will have knee surgery and miss at least three or four weeks has caused many National League pitchers to emerge from their hiding places in the woods.
11

46

43

41.2

46.0

46.8

.506

.526

13.9%

17.3%

31.2%

3.5%

-4.9%

Shin-Soo Choo had a homer taken away by instant replay. After doubling twice to help the Indians win, Choo made a turkey sandwich. It was taken away by Travis Hafner. Different situation, same result.
12

46

43

45.8

46.2

46.7

.519

.499

4.1%

13.4%

17.5%

3.5%

-11.2%

Of the four Mets pitchers with at least 17 starts, R.A. Dickey has the most strikeouts and the fewest walks.
13

49

40

44.3

46.1

46.0

.521

.501

73.4%

6.7%

80.1%

-2.1%

15.1%

Next Friday is Tim Lincecum bobble-ERA night at the park. Watch as Lincecum gets six outs in a row before surrendering four consecutive line shots. Stay after the game for Tim Lincecum fireworks night, also featuring Tim Lincecum's ERA!
14

43

46

44.5

46.3

45.7

.504

.484

10.6%

9.4%

20.0%

5.4%

-6.2%

More surprising: that Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .300/.367/.544 or that he is from renowned hotbed of baseball talent Wilmington, Delaware?
15

45

45

47.3

44.5

45.4

.506

.526

0.7%

4.7%

5.4%

0.6%

0.3%

Losing Jose Bautista for any stretch of time could turn the Jays to sellers from... well, they were probably sellers anyway. Nevermind.
16

49

40

47.6

45.8

45.3

.527

.507

12.7%

22.4%

35.1%

-8.3%

-14.7%

Hitting the first pitch after an hour rain delay, as Pedro Alvarez did to erase a three-run lead in the ninth, simultaneously endears one to one's teammates and repulses one to everyone else.
17

48

43

46.0

45.5

44.7

.506

.486

16.0%

15.0%

31.0%

0.4%

-7.0%

A career as a baseball rumorologist in three easy steps: 1) get a blog, 2) connect the Dodgers with older, expensive players, then 3) claim you heard it from a "source."
18

46

43

46.5

43.8

44.2

.507

.527

0.1%

9.1%

9.2%

2.1%

4.0%

You may think it's impossible to hit .228/.303/.373 as a team and still post a winning record. Normally you'd be correct, but through allowing the fewest runs in the American League and the second fewest in baseball, the A's are making normally rational people, like you, look silly. See? Now you look silly.
19

40

51

42.9

44.9

44.0

.472

.452

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.3%

-1.7%

With a third of their roster rumored to be on the trading block, the Phillies got production from two unmovable sources: Ryan Howard, who homered, and Joe Blanton (eight IP, two ER). Howard's contract is too ridiculous to move, and Joe Blanton is too Joe Blanton.
20

46

44

44.9

41.9

43.5

.490

.510

1.4%

15.7%

17.1%

-7.0%

-9.3%

Carlos Pena has never really hit for average, but in his last three seasons he's hit .196. .225, and .197. That can work with power and patience, but Pena is sporting a sub .700 OPS.
21

42

47

43.9

44.0

42.3

.484

.464

1.5%

8.7%

10.2%

-0.0%

1.7%

Isn't it funny how some closers can't pitch in non-save situations and other closers can't pitch in save situations? How can you tell? Do they smell different?
22

38

53

43.1

40.3

41.1

.447

.467

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Three weeks ago, in 6 2/3 innings against the A's, Jason Vargas had 10 strikeouts. Last night, in six innings against the Royals, Jason Vargas had no strikeouts. One possible explanation: Jason Vargas is a ninja.
23

43

46

37.8

39.9

40.5

.453

.433

1.1%

2.8%

3.9%

0.3%

1.6%

Ozzie Guillen thinks Bryce Harper can be a good player. Other things Ozzie thinks will be published in his new book, "Oxygen Good, Death Bad: A tribute to the obvious."
24

46

43

38.7

37.7

39.4

.454

.474

0.1%

5.9%

6.0%

-1.9%

-2.8%

The Orioles gave up 19 runs to the Twins, a number it usually takes Minnesota 4.6 games to reach. The Orioles have the microwave of pitching staffs.
25

38

50

39.2

38.0

38.8

.438

.458

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

Jonathan Sanchez has made 12 starts this year. He has completed six innings once. He has completed 6 1/3 innings never.
26

37

52

35.7

37.8

38.3

.418

.437

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins scored 19. Denard Span became the first leadoff hitter to drive in five runs in a game this year. Jim Johnson (5 ER) nearly doubled his season total.
27

36

55

37.2

37.5

36.3

.404

.385

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.0%

The Padres have scored the fewest runs in baseball. They're averaging less than three a game at home, but 4.7 per game on the road. Are the Padres bad? Yes. Are they as bad as they appear? No. Can I stop asking myself questions now? Yes.
28

36

52

37.7

35.8

36.2

.414

.395

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Anthony Rizzo is slugging over .600, Bryan LaHair is slugging over .500, and Alfonso Soriano has located his power stroke. Wouldn't want to face the Cubs now. No, just kidding, I would.
29

34

56

36.9

35.1

34.8

.391

.372

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With Jed Lowrie out of the lineup, the Astros are going to have to depend more on their guile, cunning, and kitten-like cuteness to score runs. It helps when the other team brings the Padres' offense.
30

35

54

38.1

35.0

34.7

.401

.382

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ohhhh Brothers! (A reference both to the expression of exasperation and the surname of the pitcher who caused said exasperation. Super cool wordplay.)

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
Hendo

I live in Washington, where many fans agree with Crash Davis that "strikeouts are fascist." In my nightmares, the franchise swaps Strasburg, GGonzalez and Zimmermann for a slugging catcher, two third-line defensemen and a carload of Hard Times wings.

Jul 17, 2012 08:52 AM
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