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Prospectus Hit List for July 9



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 6 Hit List for July 16
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Rangers at the top, Astros finally at the bottom (where you mentally had them all along)

RkTmWL W1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

52

34

50.9

54.6

53.5

.614

.632

86.2%

13.0%

99.2%

0.4%

0.0%

The Twins gave the Rangers three unearned runs in the bottom of the ninth and then lost the game in the 13th. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than really bad.
2

46

40

50.2

50.2

48.5

.566

.547

26.8%

28.7%

55.5%

-4.3%

-6.7%

Still the best run differential in the National League, still third place in their division behind the Pirates and Reds. For all my blabbing about run differential, record obviously matters, too.
3

52

33

49.3

49.7

50.1

.591

.611

95.3%

3.5%

98.8%

0.4%

2.4%

After taking three of four in Boston, the Yankees lead the AL East by seven games, the largest lead of any division. Said the majority of the baseball world, “YAWN!”
4

47

38

49.1

48.4

48.8

.569

.588

72.4%

7.5%

79.9%

-5.1%

22.4%

Adam Dunn came to hit five times. He struck out three times, walked once, aaaaand... [drum roll] grounded into a force out. BOOO!!!
5

49

34

48.2

49.5

48.2

.587

.568

58.7%

18.1%

76.8%

-8.7%

7.1%

A disappointing loss to the Rockies, but the Nationals end the first "half" 15 games over .500. FIFTEEN! They grow up so fast, don't they?
6

48

38

47.9

49.5

49.5

.567

.586

13.8%

69.3%

83.1%

-2.8%

0.0%

From now on, hitting homers against Baltimore only counts as three-fourths of a homer. Sorry, Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo, and Erick Aybar.
7

43

43

47.3

48.8

48.2

.545

.564

1.2%

17.3%

18.5%

-1.6%

-29.9%

Despite the unexpected heroics of Quad-A players Pedro Ciriaco and Mauro Gomez, the Red Sox dropped three of four at home to New York. The problem? As always: pitching. Boston allowed 28 runs to New York in 36 innings.
8

47

38

47.3

45.8

45.6

.546

.526

54.3%

23.6%

78.0%

4.3%

1.2%

The Reds bullpen is striking out more than 27 per nine innings, which leads baseball.
9

48

37

46.2

44.2

43.8

.536

.516

16.5%

33.9%

50.4%

11.0%

28.0%

The Pirates are averaging about 7 1/2 runs a game since mid-June. It's enough to make you think they're scoring on purpose.
10

46

39

46.1

45.5

46.0

.540

.520

29.9%

37.8%

67.7%

10.6%

17.3%

In 41 2/3 innings, Jair Jurrjens has 18 strikeouts, 15 walks, and one tenuous hold on a rotation spot.
11

43

43

45.2

42.9

43.9

.509

.529

0.0%

6.7%

6.7%

2.0%

-0.8%

Colby Rasmus has 17 homers, which is far and away more than any other Colby in baseball. In your face, Colby Lewis!
12

46

40

45.1

45.6

45.9

.531

.511

10.2%

16.9%

27.2%

-7.5%

-4.7%

At this rate, Ike Davis will not hit 24 homers and slug .388 on the season because the Mets will replace him.
13

47

40

44.7

44.5

43.8

.517

.497

26.8%

11.4%

38.2%

-8.3%

-0.8%

Of the Dodgers' starting lineup, only Elian Herrera began his career with the Dodgers, and he was switched out mid-game for Juan Uribe.
14

44

42

43.6

44.1

44.8

.513

.533

14.6%

22.0%

36.6%

7.9%

0.8%

Prince Fielder has 15 homers, but if you count in terms of distance, he has 46.
15

42

43

43.6

44.4

43.8

.511

.491

22.8%

10.6%

33.5%

9.4%

-5.5%

Is Trevor Bauer that good? Last night he was. Whoa! No! Get your mind out of the gutter!
16

45

41

43.4

40.3

41.8

.496

.516

3.1%

26.0%

29.1%

4.7%

9.1%

If you're looking to the key to Fernando Rodney's season, cutting his walk rate by 6.7 walks per nine innings is a good place to start.
17

43

43

43.4

41.7

42.2

.495

.515

0.0%

2.0%

2.0%

-1.2%

1.6%

Bartolo Colon outpitched Felix Hernandez. That hasn't happened since Hernandez left diapers, and maybe not before that either.
18

46

40

42.1

43.2

43.4

.508

.488

50.4%

7.9%

58.3%

-5.5%

-20.1%

Tim Lincecum got shelled again. His four-seam fastball has averaged 90.4 mph this season. That's a 1.8 mph drop from last season but only a 0.9 mph drop from two seasons ago. Maybe velocity isn't the heart of his problem.
19

40

45

41.6

41.7

39.9

.480

.460

2.4%

5.9%

8.3%

-1.2%

-6.3%

If things go to plan, on Friday Milwaukee will start Zack Greinke for the third consecutive game. Impressive, but he's got a long way to go to reach "Goats" McDougall, who started 108 consecutive games in 1883 before his right arm fell off, whereupon he started another 76 left-handed.
20

37

50

40.5

42.5

41.8

.465

.445

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

-0.8%

-3.5%

The Phillies are 14 games behind Washington and 10 out of a playoff spot, but at least they have Ryan Howard and Chase Utley back. In a related story, anyone want to trade for Ryan Howard or Chase Utley?
21

36

51

40.3

37.5

38.0

.436

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Seattle used six pitchers against Oakland, the line for each of whom ended with 2/3 of an inning. (Hey, it's the Mariners and I already mentioned King Felix in another team's comment. What, you want more on Ichiro's batting slot?)
22

44

41

39.6

43.6

44.5

.505

.525

13.0%

14.6%

27.6%

-9.4%

-10.6%

Johnny Damon is 242 hits away from 3,000. At this rate he'll reach the milestone in four more teams he's always wanted to play for.
23

45

40

38.7

37.3

39.1

.471

.491

0.4%

18.1%

18.5%

4.7%

5.5%

The Orioles are 1) 8-14 since mid-June, 2) still in second place in the AL East, 3) still not taken seriously by anyone north, south, or west of Baltimore. (People east of Baltimore are not people. They are fish.)
24

37

47

37.6

36.5

37.2

.441

.461

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

Kansas City residents, don't panic: what you are going to be seeing this week is not magic, witchcraft or sorcery. Some players, players in other parts of the country, are simply good at baseball.
25

41

44

36.5

38.6

38.7

.455

.436

1.2%

4.3%

5.5%

0.8%

-5.9%

The Marlins have lost exactly a quarter (10 of 40) of the games their closer has pitched in.
26

33

52

36.4

33.1

32.8

.398

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If you reverse the Rockies record, they are the best in the National League. But if you don't, they aren't.
27

33

53

35.4

34.0

33.8

.396

.377

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

With the Cubs' win, the Astros officially have the worst record in baseball. Thanks, 11-23-since-June-1st!
28

33

52

34.9

33.8

34.2

.399

.380

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs finished the first 'half' at 33-52. Imagine how the second half will go without Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza.
29

34

53

34.9

35.5

34.4

.399

.380

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Carlos Quentin: two official at-bats, two walks, two strikeouts, 22 pitches seen.
30

36

49

33.8

35.6

36.1

.416

.436

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Heading into the All-Star break, the Twins lead baseball in many stats, all having to do with lousy pitching.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


9 comments have been left for this article.
jrbdmb

Signs of the Apocalypse - (1) Pirates in the top half of the Hit List; (2) A.J. Burnett and Erik Bedard both with better records and ERAs than Tim Lincecum.

Expect to see California slide into the Pacific any day now.

Jul 09, 2012 08:34 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Am I the "signs of the apocalypse" guy or was that just a general statement?

I plussed your comment so I liked it, I'm just asking for the record.

Jul 09, 2012 10:57 AM
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jrbdmb

I think your just the messenger, BP's Woody Harrelson (from 2012) if you will. :)

Jul 09, 2012 11:39 AM
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Hatfield

Red Sox sure are awfully high on this list, eh?

Jul 09, 2012 11:41 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

The worst thing about the Red Sox is their record.

Jul 09, 2012 12:10 PM
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Schere

Baltimore is more than 100 miles from the Atlantic Ocean. Due East of Baltimore you will find these places:

America's largest estuary, the Chesapeake Bay!
Sportsman's Paradise and birthplace of Jimmie Foxx, Maryland's Eastern Shore!
The State of Delaware!

But wait! You're only halfway there! Act now, and you'll find:

Delaware Bay!

And that's not all! I'll throw in a 50 jaunt through South Jersey before you reach Atlantic City, where you can swim with the fishes!

:)

Jul 09, 2012 13:06 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

I guess I should have said "travel due east of Baltimore's Inner Harbor..." and you will find Baltimore Harbor and the Chesapeake Bay, both of which contain fish, which is what I was referring to.

Then, continuing east, you reach the aptly named Eastern Shore and Chestertown, MD, where I went to undergraduate school and therefore spent way too much time.

Jul 09, 2012 14:49 PM
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Schere

They done good, that Chestertown college did.


Jul 09, 2012 17:00 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Well thank you very much.

Jul 09, 2012 17:05 PM
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