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Prospectus Hit List for July 6



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 5 Hit List for July 9
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Rangers at the top, Cubs at the bottom, awesome Pablo Sandoval factoid in the middle.

RkTm WLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

50

33

49.6

52.8

51.9

.615

.634

84.3%

15.0%

99.2%

-0.8%

-0.8%

Josh Hamilton is slumping. His slash stats have fallen to .316/.386/.646. This is a broken gauge on a formula one car. Sure, you'd rather it worked, but the thing'll still break 200 mph no problem.
2

49

32

46.6

47.3

47.4

.587

.607

90.2%

6.3%

96.5%

0.0%

0.0%

Has Robinson Cano been overrated for so long that he's now underrated? Man, I don't even know anymore.
3

48

32

46.9

48.1

47.2

.594

.575

65.7%

19.7%

85.4%

-0.0%

15.4%

Bryce Harper barely lost out on his bid to make the All-Star team. Fair and square, I say. Because, when you don't really think about it, .283/.355/.481 from a 19-year-old isn't that impressive.
4

47

37

44.4

43.2

42.5

.527

.507

30.3%

19.3%

49.6%

0.4%

0.4%

Tonight the Dodgers play game two of a four-game series with Arizona. Did it! The most boring Hit List entry possible has now been written!
5

46

36

43.3

40.6

40.1

.519

.499

22.0%

21.3%

43.3%

12.6%

24.8%

Normally this is about the time the Pirates would begin looking to dump extraneous pieces, like closer Joel Hanrahan, but the Pirates are in first place. This is the time where the studio audience laughs.
6

46

37

45.4

46.9

47.1

.559

.578

15.7%

71.3%

87.0%

5.1%

-3.9%

There are five hitters with slugging percentages above .600. One of them plays for the Angels. The Angels also employ a hitter who makes $25 million per season. These two are not the same person.
7

45

38

44.2

44.3

45.0

.538

.518

15.0%

18.1%

33.1%

-4.3%

12.2%

After stealing one from Closer extraordinaire Jonathan Papelbon, the Mets lead the Phillies by 8 1/2 games. Truth makes the strangest fiction.
8

45

38

42.0

43.8

43.6

.525

.505

59.4%

10.6%

70.1%

-2.8%

-12.2%

Pablo Sandoval is hitting .382/.382/.655 when he is behind in the count.
9

45

37

47.4

46.7

47.1

.568

.587

72.4%

9.4%

81.9%

-1.6%

7.5%

In his last three games, Kevin Youkilis is 6-for-13 with two home runs and two walks. Either Youk is rounding into form or Ranger pitching hit a rough patch. Considering the White Sox scored 26 runs in three games, it could be both?
10

44

38

44.8

42.9

42.5

.531

.511

38.6%

31.9%

70.5%

-0.0%

2.8%

In two weeks the Reds will visit Colorado. Why am I telling you this? Because Joey Votto has better than a 2.000 OPS against the Rockies. Set your DVR now!
11

44

38

38.0

36.9

38.7

.481

.501

2.8%

11.4%

14.2%

-1.6%

-0.8%

You have to admire the going for it without really going for it that is the acquisition of Jim Thome. It is instantly in the running for the most passive-aggressive trade of the year.
12

44

39

48.5

48.3

46.5

.564

.544

36.6%

27.2%

63.8%

2.0%

-3.9%

The Cardinals are the scoringest team in the National League, and have scored 92 more runs than the Pirates, who are, of course, in front of them by 2 1/2 games because sometimes baseball is silly and weird.
13

43

39

43.6

42.9

43.2

.526

.506

17.3%

30.7%

48.0%

6.3%

-10.2%

In this, the age of decreased offense, it is notable that Michael Bourn is slugging .452, a mark he hasn't bested sice 2004 in the Sally League.
14

43

40

41.5

38.8

40.3

.493

.513

1.6%

24.4%

26.0%

1.6%

-0.4%

When looking at Jeremy Hellickson's rate stats, it's very easy to see why he isn't enjoying the same success as he did last season. Sure, his strikeouts per nine innings have jumped from 5.57 to 5.89, but his walk rate has skyrocketed from 3.43 to 3.44.
15

43

39

38.5

42.1

43.0

.508

.528

13.0%

20.5%

33.5%

0.4%

9.8%

After 88 pitches over seven innings, Josh Tomlin was removed from the game so the eighth- and ninth-inning guys could do their jobs. Problem is, Tomlin's job was to keep doing their jobs. It probably won't matter but why take out the starter on a low pitch count if he's still going strong?
16

42

40

46.0

47.5

46.7

.555

.575

5.1%

23.6%

28.7%

-7.5%

-11.8%

The hits keep coming, as Dustin Pedroia heads to the disabled list. With Will Middlebrooks already smarting from a hamstring strain, the Kevin Youkilis trade/dump looks worse and worse.
17

42

41

43.9

41.6

42.6

.512

.532

0.4%

5.1%

5.5%

-2.4%

-0.8%

Jose Bautista's slugging percentage by month: .313, .552, .750, and, in five games, .429. Look! Everyone look! He's finished!
18

41

42

41.2

41.1

41.8

.497

.517

14.2%

11.4%

25.6%

6.3%

0.4%

The Tigers have been passed in the standings by Chicago and now Cleveland. If they get swept by Kansas City this weekend they'll fall into a tie for third.
19

41

42

42.1

40.1

41.0

.495

.515

0.0%

1.2%

1.2%

-0.4%

0.8%

You can make an argument both for and against Josh Reddick making the All-Star team but the Dear John letter from the Commissioner's office just felt unnecessary.
20

40

42

35.1

37.5

37.6

.458

.438

1.6%

3.9%

5.5%

0.8%

-2.0%

Last night's game took two hours and 48 minutes to complete. Mark Buehrle's 7 2/3 innings took the 48 and Ozzie Guillen Bullpen Roulette took the two.
21

39

43

41.0

42.7

42.2

.503

.483

9.8%

10.6%

20.5%

-2.0%

-12.6%

If you reversed the Diamondbacks' runs scored and runs allowed you'd be wasting your time because they're the same. Now you're older, and the Diamondbacks are just as mediocre as they were a minute ago. Nice going.
22

38

44

39.6

39.7

38.1

.474

.454

2.8%

3.5%

6.3%

-9.8%

-9.1%

Mike Fiers (of the North Shore Fiers) has better walk and strikeout rates than Zack Greinke. This helps justify the Mike-Fiers-for-Jurickson-Profar rumors I just invented.
23

37

47

40.0

42.1

41.5

.478

.458

0.4%

3.1%

3.5%

-3.1%

-5.9%

Ryan Howard is coming back! Say what you will about Howard but he is very likely to best the .258/.320/.415 the Phillies have received from first basemen thus far this season.
24

37

44

37.1

36.4

37.0

.455

.475

0.4%

0.4%

0.8%

0.8%

-0.0%

For those of us rooting for Yuniesky Betancourt to end the season with more home runs than walks, last night was something of a mixed bag. After walking in the third (his ninth on the season) Betancourt hit his sixth homer in the ninth. Phew!
25

35

49

38.6

36.1

36.7

.436

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

When you consider draft position and fan anger the best possible result for any day when it comes to the Mariners is probably an off day. So, good day!
26

35

47

32.1

34.4

34.5

.415

.434

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins scored three runs on 15 hits. How in the world could that happen? Like this: one double and 14 singles. Mind = boggled.
27

34

50

34.4

35.5

34.5

.412

.392

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

The Padres would be last in the American League but in their division they're only fourth. Thanks, Colorado!
28

32

51

34.5

33.0

32.8

.398

.379

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Before the current eight-game losing streak, we baseball analysts were looking wrong about the Astros. Now? [does obnoxious victory dance]
29

31

51

34.7

31.5

31.1

.391

.372

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.0%

The Rockies have the best record in baseball! Oh, no, wait. I was holding the computer upside-down again. My bad.
30

31

51

32.8

32.0

32.2

.390

.371

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Starting pitcher and full-time trade chip Matt Garza isn't doing the Cubs any favors with his 4.32 ERA and 15 homers allowed. Still, you get the sense that seeing Garza in a Cubs jersey in three years will look strange.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
buffum

> ... but why take out [Tomlin] on a low pitch count if he's still going strong?

Because Tomlin's a fraud. Don't get me wrong, I root for the guy, but he's Paul Byrd. Showing him too many times to a lineup is pushing your luck into a well too many times, or something of that ilk.

I love his guts. I love his guile. I look forward to the "crafty veteran" phase of his career. It starts in a couple weeks.

Jul 06, 2012 20:31 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

OK, supposing you're right, isn't he as much of a fraud in the first inning as he is in the seventh?

I get that sending guys through a lineup too many times can have disastrous consequences, but when a guy like Tomlin is pitching well, as a manager, I'd be inclined to leave him out there until his pitch count gets too high, he struggles, or he gets hit. None of those three things were happening. (This isn't to say it was the wrong move, just one that I thought was questionable.)

Jul 07, 2012 12:22 PM
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buffum

I don't dispute this, it's a sensible question to ask. Maybe it was hot. Maybe he got a blister. Maybe Pestano needed the work. (This is untrue, but I am not Manny Acta's Opinion.)

I will say that in his career, Tomlin's "slash numbers allowed" progress both with number of plate appearances and number of pitches thrown (in 25-pitch chunks, as tracked on baseball-reference.com).

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=tomlijo01&year=Career&t=p

Jul 07, 2012 18:40 PM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

I'm certain that is true (the progression). I'm also pretty certain it's true for just about every pitcher ever.

That said, I'm not sure taking Tomlin out was the right or wrong call, just something that surprised me.

Jul 08, 2012 22:08 PM
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