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Prospectus Hit List for July 5



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 3 Hit List for July 6
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

A Rockie Mountain ... LOW??? (The Rockies have taken over the bottom spot is what we mean to say.)

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

50

32

49.1

52.8

51.8

.621

.640

84.6%

14.2%

98.8%

-0.8%

-1.2%

Starting All-Star catcher Mike Napoli is hitting .233/.336/.431. He still scares the crap out of me though.
2

49

32

46.6

47.3

47.4

.587

.607

89.8%

7.9%

97.6%

-1.2%

0.4%

The Yankees are pulling away in the AL East. Their five-game lead is the most of any division leader. Boston is playing New York this week.
3

44

37

46.8

45.5

45.8

.562

.582

66.5%

7.1%

73.6%

-1.6%

-1.6%

Alex Rios hasn't had a an OPS above .800 since 2007. His OPS this season is .866. APOCALYPSE!!!
4

45

37

44.7

46.7

46.9

.559

.578

15.4%

68.9%

84.3%

-2.4%

-1.6%

Why is batting average a weak statistic? The Angels gave up 15 hits and 12 runs while banging 12 hits and just three runs of their own. This is because, like Porta-Johns, all hits are not created equal.
5

42

40

46.0

47.5

46.6

.555

.575

4.7%

27.6%

32.3%

-5.1%

-9.4%

Red Sox' underperformance has been traced to a sign in the hallway between the clubhouse and field which reads, "Play like a champion or garbage... Really, whatever, it's totally your call."
6

47

32

46.3

47.6

46.6

.593

.574

66.5%

18.1%

84.6%

2.8%

15.4%

Jordan Zimmermann's seven strikeouts and no walks in six innings are all the more impressive when you consider that the game was played in some of the most oppressive heat since I started keeping statistics on the oppressiveness of heat last week.
7

43

39

47.6

47.9

46.2

.563

.543

29.9%

20.9%

50.8%

-9.8%

-17.3%

Is this karma for 2006?
8

42

40

43.7

41.3

42.3

.516

.536

0.4%

6.3%

6.7%

1.2%

-2.0%

Jose Bautista is leading in every important offensive category. Break that out at your annual potluck.
9

42

39

37.8

40.9

41.8

.501

.521

21.3%

15.4%

36.6%

5.1%

20.5%

Derek Lowe threw six innings of three-run ball wile striking out one. Just one more strike out and he would have maintained his season strikeout rate. Now he's going to have to strike out three next time!
10

43

39

41.2

39.1

40.5

.499

.519

3.9%

23.6%

27.6%

-1.6%

1.2%

Kyle Farnsworth's ERA is 20.25. After last year, somehow that is appropriate.
11

44

38

43.6

44.0

44.6

.537

.517

17.3%

22.0%

39.4%

-2.4%

20.9%

Right now, a half-game out of a playoff spot, the Mets are looking to add. But if things turn sour this month, might they consider moving David Wright? No, I don't think so either.
12

44

37

44.4

42.6

42.3

.535

.515

48.0%

23.2%

71.3%

-3.5%

4.7%

In 303 plate appearances, Brandon Phillips has walked 16 times. Two of them were intentional enough that Phillips was unable to convince himself to swing at the pitches up the first base line. For Phillips, this is plate discipline.
13

40

42

40.3

40.6

41.4

.495

.515

11.8%

9.4%

21.3%

0.4%

0.0%

Halfway through the season the Tigers, one of the favorites to play in the World Series, have been outscored. The solution? Easy! Sign Josh Hamilton!
14

41

42

42.1

40.1

41.0

.495

.515

0.0%

4.7%

4.7%

2.8%

3.5%

The A's four-game win streak is currently the AL's longest, which is like a children's book written by a Hollywood celebrity: uninteresting.
15

45

37

41.6

43.3

43.2

.528

.508

59.8%

16.1%

76.0%

-0.4%

-3.5%

On Tuesday, Tim Lincecum faced 21 hitters and got 10 outs. Tim Lincecum hates Tuesdays.
16

46

37

43.5

42.1

41.4

.521

.501

28.7%

17.3%

46.1%

3.9%

-13.4%

Dee Gordon has a .280 on-base percentage yet has hit leadoff in 78 percent of games he's played. However, Gordon's OBP from the leadoff spot is seven percentage points lower than his overall number. This means nobody likes Dee Gordon hitting leadoff, not even Dee Gordon.
17

44

37

37.7

36.2

37.9

.481

.501

1.2%

15.0%

16.1%

3.1%

-8.7%

Adam Jones hit his 20th homer. Last year he hit 25, while the previous two seasons he wound up with 19.
18

42

39

42.7

41.5

42.0

.519

.499

14.2%

29.5%

43.7%

-7.1%

-20.5%

Scientific studies have shown that, had Tuesday's game continued infinitely, Chipper Jones would have had 73 straight hits before eventually being called out on strikes on a pitch four inches outside.
19

45

36

42.6

39.8

39.3

.514

.494

15.4%

19.7%

35.0%

12.2%

23.6%

The Pirates have passed the Cubs, the Padres, and, shockingly, the Dodgers in runs scored. This is like getting passed in a foot race by a one-legged clown who wasn't even in the race but was trying to get to the finish line to make balloon animals.
20

39

42

40.8

42.7

42.1

.508

.488

11.4%

18.5%

29.9%

7.1%

-2.8%

Should Arizona be embarrassed by giving up eight runs to the Padres? Padres manager Bud Black: "Oh, absolutely. I mean, have you seen our lineup? [laughs] Are you a national reporter or something?"
21

36

44

36.2

35.7

36.3

.451

.471

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

0.0%

-1.2%

You never know when a young team will make that jump to greatness. However, when their rotation includes Vin Mazzaro and Luis Mendoza, the time of greatness becomes easier to pin down. Basically, how far does your calendar go?
22

37

46

39.6

41.5

40.9

.479

.459

0.4%

2.4%

2.8%

0.8%

-9.1%

Every time I look up, Chase Utley homers. Checking things out, I have looked up twice this year.
23

38

43

39.5

39.4

38.0

.478

.458

6.7%

7.9%

14.6%

-4.7%

0.8%

Aramis Ramirez hit .295/.374/.523 in June to follow up a .274/.364/.484 May. I'm starting to think that sometimes maybe guys just have bad starts...?
24

35

49

38.6

36.1

36.7

.436

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

As many Mariners in yesterday's starting lineup were hitting over .260 as were hitting below .200. (Two, in case you were curious.)
25

35

46

32.0

33.9

34.0

.416

.436

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ron Gardenhire hasn't won a playoff game since 2004.
26

39

42

34.2

36.7

36.9

.453

.434

1.6%

4.3%

5.9%

1.2%

1.2%

My name is Jeffery Loria, king of kings! Look upon my works and despair! The Marlins are 39-42.
27

33

50

33.8

34.7

33.7

.407

.388

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs are the lowest-scoring team in baseball, but it's your Padres who are averaging the fewest runs per game. True mediocrity is a highly competitive field.
28

32

50

34.2

32.9

32.6

.402

.383

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Now that Boston has finally won an extra-inning game, the Astros are baseball's last purely defeated team in extra innings. Long live outliers!
29

31

50

32.7

32.3

32.5

.397

.378

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

From afar, the Cubs' plan for ultimate victory seems completely unaffected by this season's many, many losses. But Cubs fans might see the worst team in baseball and wonder if this administration knows what they're doing.
30

31

50

34.6

30.9

30.4

.392

.373

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies released Jamie Moyer but kept Jeremy Guthrie. Are they trying to save money on birthday candles?

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


2 comments have been left for this article.
Richard Bergstrom

People here in Denver are literally too stoned to notice how bad the Rockies are.

Still put on a heck of a 4th of July Fireworks show though.

Jul 05, 2012 09:15 AM
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anderson721

I play softball with a one legged clown. He hit a triple last week. He could probably hit clean up for the Dodgers sans Kemp and Ethier.

Jul 05, 2012 16:38 PM
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