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Prospectus Hit List for July 3



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for July 2 Hit List for July 5
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Filled to the brim with jokes and factoids!

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div% Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

45

35

45.2

46.6

46.8

.574

.593

13.8%

77.2%

90.9%

5.5%

11.0%

How can Jered Weaver throw seven shutout innings of five-hit ball while walking three and striking out just two? I don't know, but Johnny Damon and Casey Kotchman in the Indians lineup don't hurt.
2

42

38

45.2

47.0

46.1

.563

.583

6.7%

38.2%

44.9%

-0.4%

16.9%

Daisuke Matsuzaka gave up one run in the first and four in the second. He was pulled before he could give up three in the third and eight in the fourth and five in the fifth and 12 in the sixth, thereby revealing his genius.
3

42

38

46.4

46.6

45.0

.563

.543

33.9%

31.5%

65.4%

11.4%

0.4%

For the best team in the National League, the Cardinals have a mediocre record.
4

44

35

43.9

41.8

41.4

.542

.522

51.2%

28.7%

79.9%

8.3%

8.7%

Is Homer Bailey turning it around? Not really, but he isn't a giant sinkhole of awful anymore. So, uh, that's something.
5

42

38

40.0

38.1

39.4

.499

.519

2.0%

23.2%

25.2%

4.7%

-14.6%

After Aroldis Chapman's somersaults, Fernando Rodney's plans for a post-save celebration on July 4th include but aren't limited to fireworks, flying monkies, and a flyover from four F-15s.
6

41

38

41.4

40.2

40.8

.517

.497

24.0%

23.2%

47.2%

-5.5%

-3.1%

Bryce Harper has thrown his support behind Chipper Jones to make the All-Star game. "Aw thanks," Chipper says. Bryce Harper notes that he has lots of time to play in All-Star games, while Old Man Jones is basically dead and forgotten. "Awwww thanks?" says Chipper.
7

45

32

44.1

45.6

44.3

.581

.562

55.5%

19.3%

74.8%

4.7%

9.1%

Of the 17 teams they've faced, the Nationals have losing records against five: Baltimore, Miami, the Dodgers, the Yankees, and Pittsburgh.
8

43

36

41.3

38.5

38.2

.510

.490

8.7%

18.1%

26.8%

3.1%

16.5%

The Pirates' 11 runs were the most of any team not named the Royals. That's a weird day.
9

39

40

40.5

42.1

41.7

.517

.497

13.0%

17.7%

30.7%

-8.7%

-9.8%

Craig Breslow is the perfect example of Matt's Undead Reliever Principle, which states that if a reliever sticks around long enough he'll eventually have a productive season of pitching and/or brain eating. MURP may need some tweaking.
10

43

37

42.3

42.5

43.0

.534

.514

15.4%

17.3%

32.7%

-5.1%

5.5%

Do the Mets miss Jose Reyes? Mets shortstops have hit .270/.343/.358 while Reyes has hit .269/.345/.382. So, maybe not?
11

44

37

41.9

40.9

40.2

.515

.495

17.3%

16.5%

33.9%

-4.7%

-31.9%

Reports say the Dodgers are working to design hover cars so as to avoid paying any money to Frank McCourt and his Dodger Stadium parking lots.
12

50

30

49.9

53.2

52.2

.642

.660

86.2%

13.8%

100.0%

0.4%

1.2%

The only regulars on the Rangers with an OPS+ less than 100 are Nelson Cruz and Michael Young.
13

45

35

41.9

43.5

43.2

.542

.522

69.7%

13.8%

83.5%

1.6%

12.2%

By assembling an above-average hitting team it is clear that Brian Sabean is attempting nothing more than to 'punk' the entire sabermetrics community.
14

37

42

38.5

38.5

37.1

.478

.458

6.3%

9.8%

16.1%

-2.4%

0.8%

In honor of this year's squad, the Brewers will introduce a new participant in the sausage race. It will be the hot dog and it will finish fourth in every race.
15

42

37

36.4

34.7

36.4

.473

.493

0.0%

9.4%

9.4%

-5.1%

-22.8%

Should the third-place team in the AL East sell? If so, what should they sell? Lemonade is so two decades ago, and Japanese electronics are too cutthroat. What to do?!
16

39

41

39.1

39.4

40.4

.493

.513

17.3%

7.9%

25.2%

-7.5%

0.0%

Combined, the Tigers are 2-10 against Seattle and Cleveland. This is getting a promotion at work and celebrating by pooping on the boss' desk.
17

40

39

35.4

39.0

39.8

.488

.508

16.1%

7.9%

24.0%

-4.7%

-5.5%

The first four hitters in Cleveland's lineup are hitting between .272 and .295. The next four are hitting between .221 and .201. The lineup has the insight and depth of a Paris Hilton joke.
18

48

31

45.8

46.2

46.4

.590

.609

90.6%

7.5%

98.0%

1.2%

2.0%

Chad Qualls threw a scoreless inning with a strikeout. Ever wonder if Joe Girardi's binder has a chapter in it on magic reliever potions?
19

42

37

43.9

43.1

43.1

.545

.564

65.7%

6.7%

72.4%

6.3%

11.8%

The White Sox are one of four teams in the AL Central with a losing record at home. They are the only first-place team with such a record.
20

40

40

42.1

39.3

40.6

.506

.526

0.8%

5.9%

6.7%

-2.4%

-2.0%

Soon the surgeon who has had to perform Tommy John surgery on almost every member of the Blue Jays rotation is going to need Tommy John surgery.
21

38

41

33.1

35.6

35.9

.451

.431

3.9%

2.8%

6.7%

-1.2%

2.8%

In May the Marlins were 21-8. Other than that, the team has gone 17-34.
22

39

42

40.9

38.5

39.5

.487

.507

0.0%

2.0%

2.0%

1.2%

0.8%

It was Revenge of the Ex-Red Sox night at Bankrupt.com Field in Oakland as both Josh Reddick and Brandon Moss homered. Coco Crisp held his fire, not because he wanted to but because he had to.
23

36

45

38.9

41.0

40.2

.482

.462

1.2%

1.2%

2.4%

-1.6%

-11.0%

The Phillies' average starting lineup features three players with an OPS+ over 100, one of whom is Juan Pierre who was a non-roster invite.
24

36

42

35.9

35.7

36.1

.461

.481

0.8%

0.4%

1.2%

0.8%

1.2%

How important are batter strikeouts? The Royals have the fewest and are the 22nd-highest-scoring team in baseball.
25

30

49

33.9

30.2

29.6

.392

.373

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

It's Mixed Metaphor MmTuesday! The Rockies should deal anything not nailed down, including the deck chairs on the Titanic.
26

35

47

38.0

35.7

36.5

.443

.463

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Big-city media have started the bi-annual King Felix trade whinnying. Just a month to go until blessed silence.
27

31

50

32.0

33.3

32.5

.398

.378

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Without looking it up I can tell you the Padres don't often score six runs. With looking it up I can tell you they scored six or more runs eight times since June 1. Overly specific information is the hobgoblin of distrustful minds.
28

32

48

33.5

32.1

31.8

.404

.385

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros won't have an All-Star this year, but not because Carlos Lee ate the spot. That would be silly. No, he ate Jose Altuve. Mistook him for a Funyun.
29

34

45

31.2

33.1

33.3

.416

.436

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins are 9-6 in their last 15 games. Ah, the magic of the small sample size.
30

30

49

32.0

31.6

31.8

.397

.378

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The embodiment of the Cubs' hopes and dreams, Anthony Rizzo homered and the Cubs won. If that isn't a sentence read hundreds more times over the next decade then the Cubs failed. Good start though.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
pobothecat

Carlos Lee, Altuve, Funyun, ha ha ha.

Jul 03, 2012 12:48 PM
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