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Prospectus Hit List for July 2



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for June 29 Hit List for July 3
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Six teams' playoff odds are now at zero.

RkTmWLW1W2 W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

50

30

49.9

53.2

52.2

.642

.660

89.0%

10.6%

99.6%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rangers have been caught stealing 24 times, the most in the American League. See? They're not perfect after all.
2

42

37

45.2

46.9

46.1

.570

.590

7.5%

43.3%

50.8%

7.5%

19.3%

There are pitching duels and then there was Felix Doubront versus Jason Vargas, a matchup that did for baseball what the trap did for ice hockey.
3

48

30

45.4

45.7

45.9

.593

.612

89.0%

9.4%

98.4%

0.8%

6.7%

The Yankees held their annual Old Timers game yesterday. Only a third of the regular roster was eligible.
4

44

35

44.4

45.6

45.7

.569

.588

11.0%

74.0%

85.0%

4.7%

10.6%

Mike Trout sees your Bryce Harper and raises you an OMG!! MIKE TROUT!!! Your bet.
5

45

32

44.1

45.6

44.4

.581

.562

52.4%

20.1%

72.4%

-0.8%

6.3%

The Nationals are 11 1/2 games up on the Phillies. Last year they never spent a day after July 18 within 11 1/2 games of Philadelphia.
6

41

38

45.3

45.7

44.1

.557

.537

33.1%

25.2%

58.3%

5.9%

-6.3%

When the Cardinals face the Pirates, itís a battle of peripherals versus results. That the Cardinals won a one-run game can only be chalked up to the universeís perverse sense of humor.
7

42

37

43.9

43.1

43.2

.545

.565

59.8%

6.3%

66.1%

-6.3%

0.4%

In the AL Central, the White Sox are that big scary-looking predator in the zoo who eats large helpings of meat but is living in the zoo because its species can't survive in the wild.
8

45

35

41.9

43.5

43.1

.542

.522

61.8%

17.7%

79.5%

4.7%

10.6%

Despite getting 100 fewer plate appearances than many of his teammates, Brandon Belt leads the Giants in walks. He'll surely be demoted soon.
9

43

37

42.3

42.5

43.1

.534

.514

15.0%

16.1%

31.1%

-9.1%

6.3%

The Mets allowed two earned runs and still lost 8-3. Why? Because they played defense like sailors on shore leave.
10

39

39

40.4

42.1

41.7

.523

.503

16.5%

26.0%

42.5%

-2.0%

-1.2%

The Willie Bloomquist leadoff experience got another go, but Kirk Gibson's options are akin to picking the least painful thing to swallow. At least Bloomquist isn't tall, or jagged.
11

40

39

42.4

39.4

40.7

.514

.534

0.8%

7.9%

8.7%

-2.0%

2.0%

The more pitchers the Blue Jays use in a game, the higher the chance that they'll encounter one who has nothing. Currently those chances are somewhere around 80 percent.
12

41

37

41.2

40.0

40.7

.522

.502

29.5%

24.8%

54.3%

-2.4%

-4.7%

Losing two of three to Washington might not sound good, but considering the Braves essentially skipped Stephen Strasburg due to heat exhaustion, it could easily have been worse.
13

43

35

42.7

40.8

40.3

.535

.515

54.7%

19.7%

74.4%

-8.7%

5.9%

From a production standpoint, losing Joey Votto from a lineup is not unlike having all the Reds players go up to the plate without bats. OK, maybe that's extreme. They can use very small bats. And oven mitts for batting gloves.
14

44

36

42.1

40.9

40.2

.523

.503

21.3%

21.3%

42.5%

7.1%

-21.7%

Dee Gordon is slugging .279. If you added his stolen bases to his total bases, he would be slugging .374. But if you removed his CS from his hits, this comment might go on forever.
15

36

45

38.9

41.0

40.1

.482

.462

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

-5.5%

-6.3%

Baseball's leader in batting average is Carlos Ruiz, who has a $5 million club option for next year before becoming a free agent at age 35. Forget Cole Hamels, this is the guy the Phillies should deal.
16

39

40

38.8

39.0

40.0

.496

.516

19.7%

10.2%

29.9%

0.4%

8.7%

Prince Fielder is staying true to his every-other-year roots by slugging under .500 so far this season. Hooray for weird patterns!
17

40

38

35.2

39.0

39.6

.493

.513

20.5%

8.7%

29.1%

6.3%

-0.4%

Justin Masterson's ERA by month: 5.40; 4.93; 2.08 1.29.
18

41

38

39.4

37.6

38.9

.497

.517

2.8%

18.1%

20.9%

-8.3%

-36.2%

The Rays have joined the Orioles as the second AL East team to allow more runs than they've scored themselves. You didn't need the end of that sentence though. Everything after "joining the Orioles" was extraneous.
19

38

42

39.8

37.5

38.4

.480

.500

0.0%

1.6%

1.6%

1.6%

0.0%

When the A's ponied up for Yoenis Cespedes, they knew what they were getting: power, athleticism and not much on-base ability. When they traded for Josh Reddick they probably didn't know they were getting Yoenis Cespedes again.
20

42

36

39.7

36.9

36.7

.498

.478

6.7%

10.2%

16.9%

1.6%

4.3%

The Pirates, a team hitting .238/.294/.387, sat Andrew McCutchen, who is hitting .346/.401/.593. They lost by one run.
21

42

36

36.2

34.7

36.5

.479

.499

0.0%

9.8%

9.8%

-4.3%

-11.0%

After five runs on seven hits and three walks, Brian Matusz has been demoted to Triple-A. "Yaaaay," said the Triple-A batters. (Because Brian Matusz always picks up the tab.)
22

36

42

37.8

37.7

36.3

.474

.454

5.5%

11.0%

16.5%

4.7%

0.4%

Nyjer Morgan went 0-for-3 but, actually, Nyjer Morgan only went 0-for-1. His back-up personalities aren't very good at baseball, either.
23

38

40

32.7

35.4

35.8

.455

.435

3.1%

7.1%

10.2%

3.9%

5.9%

Heath Bell got the (three-outs-with-a-three-run-lead) save! Hooray! I hear there are some good one-way airfares to San Diego nowadays.
24

34

47

37.2

34.7

35.5

.436

.456

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.0%

The Mariners scored five runs in four games against Boston and yet somehow won two of them. The wins are attributable to: A) the Mariners' incredible defense, B) the Red Sox getting the world's longest collective ice-cream headache, C) Karma, D) Chameleons, E) Both C and D
25

35

42

34.5

34.6

35.1

.452

.472

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Every once in a while Bruce Chen remembers he's Bruce Chen. Those aren't good days for whichever team is employing him at the moment.
26

33

45

30.5

32.5

32.6

.412

.432

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Hitting four homers in a game is an accomplishment, only slightly lessened by the fact it came against Kansas City, a club that, after decades of badness, may be on the verge of simply quitting.
27

32

47

33.9

32.5

32.2

.413

.394

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

We've been waiting all season for the Astros to fall apart. Looking it up in my Baseball Writing for Dummies I see that losing three in a row to the Cubs qualifies as falling apart.
28

30

50

31.1

32.2

31.5

.390

.371

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Huston Street made the All-Star team based on 21 innings of pitching. I know it's the All-Star game, but don't sample sizes still count for something?
29

29

49

31.2

30.9

31.0

.391

.372

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Geovany Soto is hitting .168. There are other stats I can present to give you a fuller picture of what he's done but he's hitting .168 and those other stats pretty well overlap that one.
30

30

48

33.9

30.1

29.5

.396

.377

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

Kip Wells and the Padres beat the Rockies at Coors Field. That concludes your "It can't possibly get any worse so you may as well enjoy the ride or go clean out your fridge" speech.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


3 comments have been left for this article.
George

Minor quibble, but can you add numbers to the rankings (i.e. the Dodgers at 16th on this list).

Jul 02, 2012 07:21 AM
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+4

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BP staff member Matt Kory

We're endeavoring to do just that.

Jul 02, 2012 10:39 AM
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+1

down_image
 
Robert Haueter

I've wished for that all season myself. I always start out keeping the numbers pretty straight in my head until one of the comments makes me pee myself laughing. By the time I change my underwear, my place is completely lost.

Jul 08, 2012 23:56 PM
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+1

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