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Prospectus Hit List for June 29



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for June 28 Hit List for July 2
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The top five teams are in the AL. Seven of the bottom eight teams are in the NL.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff% 1-Day7-Day
1

40

35

40.0

38.9

39.2

.527

.507

33.5%

16.1%

49.6%

-10.6%

-7.9%

A list of things Craig Kimbrel isn't: made of cheese, a Ronald McDonald impersonator, a goat (alive or dead), a perfect pitcher.
2

41

34

35.7

35.2

36.9

.496

.516

2.0%

12.2%

14.2%

-3.9%

-2.0%

Anyone who had the Orioles inked in for the playoffs probably wishes he'd used a pencil instead.
3

43

31

42.4

43.8

42.5

.580

.560

48.0%

22.0%

70.1%

-3.5%

7.5%

Edwin Jackson allowed eight runs in three innings. Why? He's nervous because he smells the trade deadline approaching.
4

41

35

42.4

42.0

41.7

.550

.569

66.5%

4.7%

71.3%

-3.1%

9.8%

Dayan Viciedo is a man who knows what he likes. For example, he always gets three pickles and a half slice of Swiss on his burgers. Also, he has 106 total bases on the season, 56 of which have come via home runs.
5

46

29

44.1

43.8

44.0

.593

.612

89.0%

7.1%

96.1%

-2.4%

-0.0%

This season, Derek Jeter has hit .087/.125/.261 during the fourth inning. Why? Because Derek Jeter knows the fourth inning is the least important inning in baseball. Duh.
6

43

34

41.7

40.9

40.4

.539

.519

21.3%

26.4%

47.6%

-2.4%

-18.5%

The Dodgers fell out of sole possession of first place for the first time since April 10th. Ugh, it's so dirty down here! Does anyone have any hand sanitizer?
7

40

36

38.3

36.8

38.1

.504

.524

3.1%

28.0%

31.1%

-2.0%

-16.1%

The Rays' four-game losing streak is currently the longest in the majors. Use this information wisely.
8

40

36

43.1

44.3

43.5

.562

.582

5.5%

37.4%

42.9%

-2.0%

5.5%

Red Sox pitchers have hit more batters than any team, but are fifth in getting hit themselves. In an unrelated note, Red Sox hitters now hate me.
9

34

41

36.0

36.4

34.9

.471

.451

3.1%

8.7%

11.8%

-1.6%

-9.4%

Why has nobody yet made a movie about a crusty old manager who runs an injured Brewers squad calling on the Chorizo to pitch the ninth inning of a 14-3 game?
10

41

34

40.7

38.8

37.8

.528

.508

37.8%

25.2%

63.0%

-1.2%

-11.8%

Joey Votto and Adam Dunn both have 60 walks. But Votto has 60 strikeouts while Dunn has 121.
11

48

29

48.0

51.3

50.5

.642

.660

84.6%

14.6%

99.2%

-0.8%

-0.4%

When the starter walks three and gives up three homers in five innings pitched, that's a loss. The Rangers silly offense makes that a win. Sorry, A's. At least you do get a case of turtle wax and a lousy copy of our home game.
12

34

39

33.6

33.5

34.2

.463

.483

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

-0.8%

0.4%

If Kansas City had a New York-like media, can you imagine all the pressure there would be to trade Jeff Francoeur right now?
13

40

35

36.8

33.6

33.2

.479

.459

3.5%

5.9%

9.4%

-0.8%

-0.8%

Things I Wish I'd Bet On: on June 28th the Pirates and Phillies would play and the Pirates would be the team in the playoff race.
14

33

45

36.2

34.4

35.1

.445

.465

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.0%

The combination of Felix Hernandez having a good night and the Seattle offense having an off night means the time it takes to play a baseball game could actually be measured in nanoseconds.
15

32

44

33.3

31.8

31.7

.424

.404

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Closer Brett Myers gave up six runs, including a grand slam. The chances that performance improved his trade value are -4.3 percent.
16

30

44

27.5

29.6

29.9

.395

.414

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins have the lowest strikeout rates in baseball for both relievers and starting pitchers. But, oddly enough, as a team, the Twins don't have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. No, I'm kidding. They do. They really do.
17

26

49

29.0

28.8

29.2

.377

.358

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

If the season continues like this, the Chicago Sun-Times will change its famous Theo Epstein Walking on Water picture to Epstein in a burlap sack with an angry raccoon about to be tossed in.
18

28

49

29.8

30.4

30.4

.385

.366

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Andrew Cashner was the good stuff. Nine strikeouts, two walks, and two runs over six 1/3 innings is nothing to sneeze at though in the context of the Padres season, if you did sneeze you'd miss the good stuff.
19

29

46

32.2

28.8

28.6

.396

.377

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Rockies blew leads of seven runs (early) and one run (late) before winning in the 11th. They could have blown more leads but blowing a seven-run lead takes time.
20

35

40

30.3

32.9

33.2

.438

.419

1.2%

2.0%

3.1%

0.0%

-3.5%

Marlins fans might be comforted to know that as far as bad teams go, the Marlins are actually pretty good.
21

38

38

40.2

37.4

38.5

.507

.527

0.4%

6.3%

6.7%

1.2%

2.4%

Mike Scioscia sensed that Jeff Mathis had homered. First, he felt a disturbance in the force. Second, he was watching from the opposing dugout.
22

37

40

38.7

36.3

37.0

.484

.504

0.0%

1.2%

1.2%

1.2%

0.8%

Before this season, Josh Reddick hit 10 homers in 403 plate appearances. In 290 so far this season, Reddick has 18 homers. Now if only he'd re-grow his pirate mustache, the transformation to superstar would be complete.
23

37

39

36.8

36.9

37.6

.488

.508

20.1%

5.1%

25.2%

1.2%

-3.9%

Quintin Berry has 12 steals without being caught, the most without being caught of any player. There's a way to make this into a Marlon Byrd joke, but I'll refrain.
24

40

36

45.1

45.7

44.1

.575

.556

55.5%

18.9%

74.4%

3.1%

19.7%

The Cardinals are averaging 27 outs a game, which leads the majors.
25

44

33

40.8

42.5

42.1

.550

.530

63.4%

21.3%

84.6%

3.5%

20.1%

The last time the Giants allowed a run, Barack Obama was the president, "Call Me Maybe" was at the top of the Billboard 100, and you were five days younger than you are now.
26

38

37

39.2

40.4

40.2

.526

.506

15.4%

31.5%

46.9%

3.9%

5.9%

Trevor Bauer made his major-league debut, though he threw only four innings due to a combination of fear and conventional thinking.
27

36

42

38.3

40.5

39.4

.494

.474

5.5%

7.9%

13.4%

4.3%

0.8%

Kyle Kendrick has pitched in 17 games for Philadelphia this season. The Phillies have lost 14 of them.
28

43

33

43.8

44.8

44.9

.581

.600

15.4%

75.6%

90.9%

4.7%

14.2%

Angels team OPS by month: April: .650; May: .725; June: .831. Apparently the Angels are sitting on an electric stove.
29

41

36

39.9

39.5

40.0

.521

.501

11.8%

14.2%

26.0%

5.1%

-2.0%

The Mets are in the hunt for the second Wild Card, but that raises the question: this being the Mets, if they caught it would they kill it?
30

38

37

32.8

35.5

36.3

.475

.495

13.4%

7.5%

20.9%

7.1%

-10.6%

Johnny Damon went 1-for-3 with a homer to up his slash stats, although he could have gone 1-for-4 with a double and improved on his current line of .213/.293/.348.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


4 comments have been left for this article.
Jmast7

"The top five teams are in the AL. Seven of the bottom eight teams are in the NL"

Isn't that partially the result of sorting by AHLF?

Jun 29, 2012 08:02 AM
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ChicagoOriole

Well, the AL East maintains its "every child is above average" record. When was the last time a division ended up with every team above .500?

Jun 29, 2012 09:46 AM
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jimcal

On Yankees comment: I wonder if that's to do with the dominance of opposing starters, which gone through the minimum through 3, and got Jeter out as the first out at fourth inning. Or that's Jeter's third turn which means at least 7(LOB+Runs)during first three innings. [Research topic]

Jun 29, 2012 16:26 PM
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jrbdmb

On the Pirate comment: I'm pretty sure Pittsburgh could win the World Series this year (not that I'm expecting that) and still finish in the bottom third of the Hit List.

Jun 29, 2012 18:13 PM
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