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Prospectus Hit List for June 26



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for June 25 Hit List for June 27
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Jamie Moyer revenge tour rolls on, adds new target for revenge.

RkTmWL W1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

30

42

27.3

29.1

29.2

.401

.421

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.0%

The Twins are 3-0 in extra innings and 16-11 in one-run games. Which makes you think, you mean they've been lucky?
2

27

47

28.2

27.8

28.1

.376

.357

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

In order to attract more fans, the Padres are considering turning Petco Park into a dog park between innings.
3

25

48

29.4

28.9

29.2

.385

.366

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Cubs have seven different relievers who have blown saves this season. Is that a lot? It sounds like a lot.
4

34

39

29.5

32.0

32.2

.437

.418

1.6%

1.6%

3.1%

-4.3%

-13.4%

Heath Bell has given up runs in 11 of his 32 appearances. Worse, of those 11, eight times he's allowed more than one run. Looks like the Marlins will have to spend big money on a closer again this winter.
5

37

35

31.1

33.7

34.2

.472

.492

16.9%

7.1%

24.0%

0.4%

-2.4%

Nothing good happened to the Indians yesterday during their 7-1 loss to the Yankees. So instead, I offer you fortune cookie wisdom from an actual fortune cookie: A person is never too old to learn.
6

28

44

31.7

28.0

27.5

.400

.381

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Rockies pitching has allowed the most home runs in the National League. At this pace they’ll allow the most home runs in the National League.
7

32

39

31.8

31.7

32.5

.451

.470

0.8%

0.0%

0.8%

0.4%

0.8%

After a complete-game shutout with eight strikeouts and only one walk, Luke Hochevar is officially a professional pitching tease.
8

30

43

32.0

31.4

31.5

.428

.408

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The biggest Astros news story now is 1) Jed Lowrie's three-game hit streak, 2) Jose Altuve's 12 steals in 17 attempts, or 3) waiting for the inevitable postseason retro jersey sale.
9

31

44

34.7

32.6

33.1

.438

.458

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The three hitters with the highest OPS on the Mariners are Felix Hernandez, Hector Noesi, and Jason Vargas.
10

33

40

34.7

35.3

33.8

.468

.449

4.7%

8.7%

13.4%

-5.9%

-4.3%

Middle reliever Kameron Loe is 6' 8", weighs 245 pounds and, I once read, owns a bunch of snakes. I am therefore comfortable telling you that he is the greatest pitcher ever in the history of the sport.
11

38

34

34.8

31.9

31.6

.473

.453

1.2%

5.9%

7.1%

-2.0%

2.8%

After scoring three in yesterday's loss, the Pirates are no longer the lowest-scoring team in baseball. Suck on that sadness-pop, Padres!
12

36

37

35.6

35.6

35.7

.489

.509

20.9%

7.1%

28.0%

6.7%

-3.1%

The Tigers and Rangers both had 10 hits. The Tigers had four extra-base hits, all doubles, while the Rangers had three, two doubles and a homer. Yet the Tigers won by six runs. Why? Six-for-12 with runners in scoring position. Clutch might not be a skill, but it matters.
13

41

31

36.4

35.9

37.5

.524

.543

2.4%

24.4%

26.8%

1.6%

0.0%

The Orioles released Jamie Moyer. Now, Moyer will spend a decade getting his revenge on Baltimore.
14

39

35

36.8

36.7

37.5

.507

.487

10.2%

10.2%

20.5%

-2.4%

-2.0%

Since his no-hitter on June 1st, Johan Santana has thrown four straight hitters.
15

35

40

37.2

39.1

38.1

.498

.478

4.7%

5.9%

10.6%

-0.4%

0.4%

Actual information in lieu of your previously scheduled Joe Blanton joke: in 132 games last year, Carlos Ruiz had 29 extra-base hits. Through 66 games this year he already has 26.
16

36

38

37.4

35.1

35.7

.487

.507

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

-0.4%

Josh Reddick has 17 homers on the year, nine of which have come at home. The outfielder he was traded for and replaced by, Ryan Sweeney, has zero homers with zero at home.
17

38

34

37.7

36.5

37.0

.518

.498

39.0%

16.1%

55.1%

0.8%

11.4%

Seven different Braves have as many or more home runs as Chipper Jones.
18

40

33

37.9

36.9

38.4

.525

.545

9.4%

37.0%

46.5%

-4.7%

-6.7%

The Rays have walked in 10 percent of their plate appearances and struck out in 21 percent. New Rays slogan: "Winning baseball has never been so boring"
19

41

33

38.1

39.3

38.7

.531

.511

40.6%

26.4%

66.9%

1.6%

-1.2%

Public perception is funny. When the Giants first signed Barry Zito, everyone said, "Ridiculous contract!" and rooted against him. But now Zito has been so bad for so long that I think people are actually rooting for the guy, awful contract or not.
20

37

35

38.6

39.7

39.3

.537

.517

22.8%

29.1%

52.0%

8.7%

11.0%

At this point it's a small sample size, but Lyle Overbay hitting .347/.425/.547 shouldn't really happen under any statistical circumstances.
21

41

30

39.6

41.5

40.7

.574

.554

44.5%

17.7%

62.2%

0.4%

0.8%

Three of Stephen Strasburg's 15 starts have featured fewer strikeouts than innings pitched.
22

38

35

39.9

39.9

39.8

.540

.560

61.4%

4.3%

65.7%

-0.4%

0.8%

Former All-Star Kevin Youkilis had a single in four at-bats, helping to power the resurgent White Sox to a 4-1 loss over the lowly and pathetic Twins. (When you write the lead before game time, sometimes you have to change a few words at the last second to avoid outright lying.)
23

38

35

39.9

37.3

38.3

.526

.546

0.8%

8.3%

9.1%

3.9%

4.7%

Jose Bautista's homers per game by month: April: .13; May: .32; June: .52.
24

40

32

40.1

38.3

37.3

.541

.521

46.1%

26.0%

72.0%

3.9%

-7.9%

After I ripped the Mat Latos deal for the Reds yesterday, Latos threw a complete game while striking out 13 to only two walks. In the industry we call this "bad timing."
25

40

33

40.3

41.5

41.8

.560

.580

10.6%

65.7%

76.4%

-1.2%

7.1%

Mark Trumbo is slugging .612. Mark Trumbo? Mark TRUMBO???
26

38

35

40.7

41.8

41.4

.554

.574

7.1%

22.8%

29.9%

-3.9%

1.6%

Since coming back up, Mark Melancon has thrown six innings of one-run ball. That's moved him past outfielder Darnell McDonald for the second-worst reliever ERA on the team. Next in his sights: Justin Thomas, who was DFA'd a month and a half ago!
27

43

31

40.8

40.4

39.7

.554

.534

36.6%

31.1%

67.7%

-3.1%

-14.2%

In 284 plate appearances, Dee Gordon has three extra-base hits. That's why he hits leadoff.
28

44

28

42.4

42.1

42.3

.593

.612

80.3%

13.8%

94.1%

-1.6%

-2.4%

They say every team wins a third of its games and loses a third and it's that third third that separates the good teams from the bad. The Yankees started their back-up center fielder, who was hitting .133/.161/.167, and he went two for three with a triple and a homer, so that game falls into the first third.
29

39

35

43.9

44.6

43.0

.576

.556

48.0%

21.3%

69.3%

2.8%

16.5%

Despite throwing only 74 pitches, Cardinals Manager Mike Matheny took Jake Westbrook out after six innings and proceeded to use six more pitchers to get through the next three innings. I get the feeling Tony LaRussa is hiding down the dugout tunnel.
30

45

29

46.0

49.2

48.5

.637

.656

89.4%

9.4%

98.8%

-0.4%

-0.0%

At .322, Rangers hitters have the highest BABIP in baseball. This shouldn't surprise anyone.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
qwik3457bb

How did the Yankees win and see their 1-day playoff% go down?
Answer: they didn't, it actually went up 0.4%, so I have no idea what that -1.6% is doing there.

Jun 26, 2012 11:57 AM
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