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Prospectus Hit List for June 25



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for June 22 Hit List for June 26
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Your brief daily reminder that the Rangers are good.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLF Win Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

45

28

46.0

48.9

48.0

.644

.662

90.2%

9.1%

99.2%

-0.4%

0.0%

The Rangers have the most runs scored in the AL, the most wins in the AL, and the largest run differential in the AL. This has been your daily reminder the Rangers are very good.
2

43

28

41.2

41.0

41.2

.586

.605

74.0%

19.7%

93.7%

2.4%

-3.9%

Hiroki Kuroda has received the 103rd-most run support of 110 qualifying starting pitchers.
3

38

34

39.7

40.2

40.3

.549

.569

65.4%

3.9%

69.3%

-0.8%

-2.8%

Trading for Kevin Youkilis either means the White Sox recognize their need for OBP or this is a belated attempt to replace Ozzie's crazy. We’ll know if we start seeing tweets from little Kezin Youkilis.
4

39

32

39.4

37.6

36.5

.537

.517

46.9%

19.7%

66.5%

-2.0%

-15.4%

Aroldis Chapman has given up three homers this season. Who could possibly homer off Champman? It seems nuts until you remember: all you have to do to hit a 100 mph pitch over the wall is make contact. Thus three homers.
5

38

35

43.4

43.9

42.3

.574

.554

44.5%

23.6%

68.1%

9.4%

8.7%

St. Louis is third in runs scored behind two DH-wielding AL teams. Third place: the way baseball was meant to be played.
6

41

29

39.3

40.8

40.2

.576

.557

44.1%

16.9%

61.0%

-10.2%

1.2%

The Nationals have scored the fewest runs in the NL East and the third fewest in the National League. The Nationals are in first place. By 3.5 games!
7

43

30

41.3

40.5

39.9

.564

.544

42.5%

26.0%

68.5%

1.2%

-14.2%

A. J. Ellis and Joe Mauer are having similar offensive seasons. Two differences: 1) Ellis makes half a million dollars on a one-year deal while Mauer makes $23 million annually over the next six years, and 2) Joe Mauer has better hair (but not by $183.5 million).
8

38

34

37.7

36.5

37.0

.518

.498

37.0%

24.4%

61.4%

6.7%

12.2%

What does it say when you're starting a pitcher in the major leagues named Minor?
9

40

33

36.7

38.1

37.6

.522

.502

36.6%

27.2%

63.8%

-3.5%

-2.4%

Looking at the Giants lineup is like looking at a lineup card from your youth. There's all these guys on it that you forgot about.
10

37

35

38.6

39.7

39.2

.537

.517

20.9%

26.8%

47.6%

3.5%

13.4%

Why did 33,448 show up to see the Diamondbacks and Cubs? Could it be because it was 78 degrees inside Chase Field and 108 outside?
11

37

34

31.2

33.9

34.2

.480

.500

18.9%

5.1%

24.0%

-3.1%

2.8%

Fearful of ruining their 12-2 record in one-run games, the Indians gave up five runs in the final two innings to lose 7-1. Crisis averted!
12

35

37

34.5

34.9

35.0

.484

.504

15.4%

5.5%

20.9%

-0.8%

-3.1%

The Tigers have instituted a new rule. If Justin Verlander doesn't do something amazing/ridiculous, all fans in attendance get their money back. To date, no money has been refunded.
13

39

34

36.8

36.6

37.3

.513

.493

11.0%

10.6%

21.7%

-2.8%

2.4%

When R.A. Dickey gives up runs, an angel gets his wings pulled off with industrial-grade pliers.
14

40

32

38.3

37.3

38.6

.536

.555

11.0%

40.2%

51.2%

0.4%

-0.8%

The Rays can seemingly pull anyone off the streets, put a "Rays" shirt on him and the guy will hit two doubles. Brooks Conrad was that guy yesterday. Stay by your phone.
15

40

33

40.3

41.5

41.8

.560

.580

9.8%

67.3%

77.2%

6.7%

5.1%

Despite the 1,000th free pass of his career, Albert Pujols isn't walking as much as he used to. At least he's still stealing bases at his career clip. He has four on the year.
16

38

34

40.5

41.6

41.3

.561

.580

9.1%

28.3%

37.4%

5.5%

12.6%

The Red Sox have won seven of eight, but have lost nine of their last 19, but have won 15 of their last 25, but have lost 23 of 49 but have won 38 of their last 72. (The Red Sox are 38-34.)
17

41

31

36.4

35.9

37.5

.524

.543

4.7%

16.1%

20.9%

-4.7%

-9.4%

Because Orioles fans don't have enough to worry about: Adam Jones is hitting .265/.299/.422 with three walks in June.
18

33

39

34.4

35.0

33.5

.472

.452

4.3%

8.3%

12.6%

-3.5%

-2.4%

The Brewers have struck out 589 times this season, second most in baseball, just four fewer than Houston. This is what they get for not re-signing Prince Fielder.
19

38

33

34.9

31.8

31.4

.479

.459

4.3%

7.1%

11.4%

2.4%

3.9%

The Pirates are last in baseball in singles, 131 fewer than St. Louis.
20

34

40

36.1

38.3

37.4

.493

.473

4.3%

5.9%

10.2%

-3.5%

-0.8%

After Cole Hamels left the game, the Phillies bullpen couldn't hold the Rays, losing 3-2 in the first game of a doubleheader. If only the Phillies had a big-name reliever who could strike hitters out and could be called upon at a moment's notice for situations just like that. If only...
21

34

38

29.0

31.7

31.8

.439

.420

3.5%

3.5%

7.1%

2.4%

-6.7%

The Marlins still lead all of baseball with 66 steals. So they've got that going for them. Which is nice.
22

37

35

39.1

36.5

37.5

.521

.541

1.2%

4.3%

5.5%

-5.1%

-0.8%

At 37-35 the Jays are in last place in the East. That would put them in third place in the AL Central and the West, tied for third in the NL West, and fourth place in the NL East and Central.
23

31

39

30.4

30.5

31.3

.440

.460

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

0.0%

0.0%

The Royals are 20-16 on the road. The Royals are 11-23 at home. The Royals are weird.
24

30

42

31.5

30.4

30.6

.425

.406

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros better stop winning or they'll blow their shot to be one of the worst teams in the league.
25

35

38

36.7

34.8

35.4

.486

.506

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

A member of the A's hitting a three-run walk-off homer is as unlikely as 1) a member of the A's hitting a grand slam walk-off homer, 2) a member of the A's homering at all, or 3) you being mauled by a bear while reading this.
26

31

43

34.3

32.0

32.6

.439

.459

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Mariners are 8-12 when Ichiro leads off, a winning percentage of .400. Without Ichiro leading off, Seattle is 23-31, a winning percentage of .426. So that’s probably not it.
27

24

48

28.3

28.0

28.3

.377

.359

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

After the Cubs trade Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster, dump Alfonso Soriano, and send Geovany Soto back to the minors, the only reason to come to Wrigley Field will be to see the other team. So get your tickets for the August series versus the Astros and Pirates now!
28

26

47

27.6

27.8

28.1

.375

.356

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

This past offseason, the Padres dealt Mat Latos for, among other players, Edinson Volquez. While not being exactly good himself, Volquez has been 10 percent better than Latos. That, plus getting someone named "Boxburger," means we're calling this puppy.
29

27

44

31.1

27.6

27.0

.397

.378

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jason Giambi's OPS by position: First base, .729; DH, .560; Pinch Hitter, 1.171. A career is re-born again.
30

29

42

26.5

27.8

28.0

.392

.411

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Josh Willingham is hitting .278/.386/.551. Uh... Joe Mauer is getting on base. This concludes Twins Happy Minute, the bimonthly show that reminds people nothing is entirely bad.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


5 comments have been left for this article.
rcrary

I get the regular Phillies joke about non-use of Papelbon, I really do, but this wasn't the best example: it was the 8th inning, and he'd pitched the previous day, somewhat laboriously, in blowing a save, and it was the first game of a doubleheader... the odds he would pitch two full innings, for any team, given all that are very slim. Also, the Phillies have Bastardo, who, though not highly paid, has typically been able to hold leads and strike guys out doing so... of course, he'd also pitched the day before, and not well, so he should've had a shorter leash... but still.

Jun 25, 2012 10:13 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

There are worse examples of non-Papelbon usage, I agree, but I couldn't wait around for a better one to show it's face.

Jun 25, 2012 12:45 PM
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rcrary

This occurred to me. But surely you'd only have to wait one or two games. Alas.

Jun 25, 2012 13:18 PM
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trueblue33

The R.A. Dickey comment made me pee a little. Luckily, I was in a position to do so.

Jun 25, 2012 10:56 AM
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BP staff member Matt Kory

Excellent. That's exactly what I was going for.

Jun 25, 2012 12:45 PM
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+1

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