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Prospectus Hit List for June 22



by Jason Wojciechowski

Hit List for June 21 Hit List for June 25
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Rangers at the top, Padres at the bottom, extremely important Xavier Nady factoid in the middle.

RkTmWLW1W2 W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

43

27

44.4

47.4

46.7

.648

.666

89.8%

9.8%

99.6%

0.4%

1.2%

Yu Darvish got good results in his last two starts, but his walk rate is still just shy of five men per nine innings.
2

35

35

40.3

41.5

40.0

.560

.540

34.6%

20.9%

55.5%

-5.1%

-13.4%

On the one hand, Jason Motte never got into the game yesterday because the Cardinals were the road team and he's the closer and the game was tied. On the other hand, Jason Motte has a 5.04 FRA. Maybe Mike Matheny secretly knows what he's doing.
3

41

27

39.7

39.7

39.8

.589

.608

80.3%

15.0%

95.3%

0.0%

2.8%

None of the sixteen pitchers who have thrown an inning for the Yankees has done so at a below-replacement pace.
4

36

33

38.4

39.8

39.6

.557

.577

8.3%

34.6%

42.9%

6.7%

10.2%

Daisuke Matsuzaka has a .213 batting average against. If only this mattered
5

38

32

38.5

39.2

39.3

.554

.573

9.8%

62.6%

72.4%

6.7%

7.1%

Is it Howie Kendrick or Howard? What are we going with? Either way, he's third on the Angels in WARP with a .305 OBP.
6

42

28

40.1

39.8

38.9

.575

.555

46.5%

24.8%

71.3%

-1.2%

-1.6%

The Dodgers had Josh Lindblom and Kenley Jansen warming up in the top of the ninth. Because the game remained tied, the lesser pitcher came in.
7

36

33

38.0

38.7

38.9

.549

.569

40.9%

4.3%

45.3%

0.4%

-18.5%

Did you know that Tarsem Singh created the White Sox' park?
8

40

27

37.8

39.6

38.9

.583

.563

37.0%

23.2%

60.2%

-4.7%

-9.4%

Xavier Nady and I almost went to the same high school. Just FYI.
9

38

31

36.4

35.8

37.1

.533

.553

10.2%

45.7%

55.9%

-2.4%

0.8%

Joel Peralta did a nice job getting his revenge on Davey Johnson by ... wait, by losing the game? Oh.
10

34

35

35.6

37.3

37.1

.521

.501

12.6%

24.8%

37.4%

1.6%

11.0%

The thing about spelling it "D'backs" is that I pronounce it more like "duh BACKS" with a very short "duh." If you want it to be "DEE backs," you should spell it "D-Backs."
11

38

32

35.2

37.2

36.6

.525

.505

40.9%

25.2%

66.1%

5.5%

-1.6%

Tim Lincecum has the highest ERA of his career by over two runs, but the highest FIP by less than half a run.
12

33

38

35.1

36.8

35.9

.496

.476

3.9%

9.4%

13.4%

-3.5%

0.0%

Every day that Jim Thome does not homer is a sad day in my house. Even the cats mope around a little.
13

35

34

37.3

34.6

35.8

.517

.537

0.4%

3.9%

4.3%

-1.6%

-1.2%

Would you rather have Ervin Santana, Henderson Alvarez, or a hamster
14

37

32

36.8

35.4

35.6

.525

.505

48.8%

15.7%

64.6%

4.3%

1.2%

There is currently a beautiful symmetry to Dan Uggla's season walk totals: 48, 68, 77, 92, 78, 62, 49. Go get mesmerized by his player card while you still can.
15

39

30

34.9

34.0

35.5

.520

.540

0.8%

14.2%

15.0%

-6.7%

-13.8%

Tommy Hunter isn't walking anyone, at least.
16

38

32

35.3

34.9

35.4

.513

.493

7.5%

13.8%

21.3%

0.0%

0.4%

Why does any old dude with the name "Kirk" get to be nicknamed "Captain Kirk"?
17

38

30

37.4

35.2

34.6

.534

.514

55.9%

15.7%

71.7%

5.5%

6.7%

Aroldis Chapman has his best K:BB ratio and his worst ERA when he pitches on two days of rest. A full exploration of this problem is surely forthcoming.
18

34

35

33.5

33.8

34.1

.490

.510

28.3%

5.1%

33.5%

3.9%

8.7%

Welcome back to the majors, Jacob Turner. Thanks for the five walks. Lovely.
19

36

32

30.8

33.5

34.0

.494

.514

30.3%

3.9%

34.3%

-6.7%

2.0%

Carlos Santana: .232 batting average, mad valuable anyway. He's a good illustration of why walk rate and position and guitar skills matter.
20

34

36

35.2

32.7

33.2

.483

.503

0.4%

0.8%

1.2%

-0.0%

0.8%

Travis Blackley set a career-high in innings pitched in a game with eight (with just 87 pitches, to boot) in beating the Dodgers. Then again, have you seen the LA lineup?
21

32

37

33.2

33.5

31.8

.473

.453

5.5%

17.7%

23.2%

3.5%

11.4%

I got Ryan Braun for $7 in a fantasy game this year. Problem is he's a reliever who hasn't appeared in the majors since 2007.
22

30

41

33.0

30.6

31.4

.440

.460

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Brendan Ryan is a close second to Felix Hernandez in WARP on the Mariners. He's batting .186/.290/.284. Sure, defense, but come on now.
23

33

36

27.9

30.6

30.6

.442

.423

2.8%

4.3%

7.1%

-5.5%

-9.4%

Carlos Zambrano should get a special dispensation to bat even in American League–rules games. We need some payoff for a guy who pitches like this, right?
24

31

36

30.6

30.0

30.6

.456

.476

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.8%

-0.4%

Bruce Chen (4.81 ERA) needs fewer than six VORP to pass his previous career-high.
25

36

32

32.8

30.0

29.7

.472

.452

3.9%

4.3%

8.3%

0.0%

4.7%

James McDonald, the pride of Long Beach, has a 2.19 ERA now. Typically when I say "the pride of," I'm being sarcastic, but I guess it's kinda sincere this time.
26

28

41

29.0

27.8

28.2

.410

.390

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Wait, I just realized: Keuchel's name is Dallas?
27

24

45

28.3

27.4

27.6

.389

.370

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.0%

The 2007 version of the BP Annual described Bryan LaHair as "big and slow." Five years later, FRAA is expressing grave concern about his defense (-6.6 runs).
28

27

41

25.5

27.1

27.2

.393

.412

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

Justin Morneau stole a base for the first time since 2007. It was his first attempt since 2008. I'll wait while you subtract those numbers from 2012.
29

24

46

25.9

26.3

26.8

.367

.349

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Twenty-four humans have thrown a pitch for the Padres this year. You fell asleep in the middle of reading this comment.
30

26

42

29.7

26.1

25.1

.393

.374

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Somehow Jeff Francis turned in the best performance so far in the Rockies' new 75-pitch, four-starter world order.