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Prospectus Hit List for June 22



by Jason Wojciechowski

Hit List for June 21 Hit List for June 25
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

Rangers at the top, Padres at the bottom, extremely important Xavier Nady factoid in the middle.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff% 1-Day7-Day
1

38

32

38.5

39.2

39.3

.554

.573

9.8%

62.6%

72.4%

6.7%

7.1%

Is it Howie Kendrick or Howard? What are we going with? Either way, he's third on the Angels in WARP with a .305 OBP.
2

36

33

38.4

39.8

39.6

.557

.577

8.3%

34.6%

42.9%

6.7%

10.2%

Daisuke Matsuzaka has a .213 batting average against. If only this mattered
3

38

32

35.2

37.2

36.6

.525

.505

40.9%

25.2%

66.1%

5.5%

-1.6%

Tim Lincecum has the highest ERA of his career by over two runs, but the highest FIP by less than half a run.
4

38

30

37.4

35.2

34.6

.534

.514

55.9%

15.7%

71.7%

5.5%

6.7%

Aroldis Chapman has his best K:BB ratio and his worst ERA when he pitches on two days of rest. A full exploration of this problem is surely forthcoming.
5

37

32

36.8

35.4

35.6

.525

.505

48.8%

15.7%

64.6%

4.3%

1.2%

There is currently a beautiful symmetry to Dan Uggla's season walk totals: 48, 68, 77, 92, 78, 62, 49. Go get mesmerized by his player card while you still can.
6

34

35

33.5

33.8

34.1

.490

.510

28.3%

5.1%

33.5%

3.9%

8.7%

Welcome back to the majors, Jacob Turner. Thanks for the five walks. Lovely.
7

32

37

33.2

33.5

31.8

.473

.453

5.5%

17.7%

23.2%

3.5%

11.4%

I got Ryan Braun for $7 in a fantasy game this year. Problem is he's a reliever who hasn't appeared in the majors since 2007.
8

34

35

35.6

37.3

37.1

.521

.501

12.6%

24.8%

37.4%

1.6%

11.0%

The thing about spelling it "D'backs" is that I pronounce it more like "duh BACKS" with a very short "duh." If you want it to be "DEE backs," you should spell it "D-Backs."
9

43

27

44.4

47.4

46.7

.648

.666

89.8%

9.8%

99.6%

0.4%

1.2%

Yu Darvish got good results in his last two starts, but his walk rate is still just shy of five men per nine innings.
10

36

33

38.0

38.7

38.9

.549

.569

40.9%

4.3%

45.3%

0.4%

-18.5%

Did you know that Tarsem Singh created the White Sox' park?
11

38

32

35.3

34.9

35.4

.513

.493

7.5%

13.8%

21.3%

0.0%

0.4%

Why does any old dude with the name "Kirk" get to be nicknamed "Captain Kirk"?
12

41

27

39.7

39.7

39.8

.589

.608

80.3%

15.0%

95.3%

0.0%

2.8%

None of the sixteen pitchers who have thrown an inning for the Yankees has done so at a below-replacement pace.
13

27

41

25.5

27.1

27.2

.393

.412

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

Justin Morneau stole a base for the first time since 2007. It was his first attempt since 2008. I'll wait while you subtract those numbers from 2012.
14

36

32

32.8

30.0

29.7

.472

.452

3.9%

4.3%

8.3%

0.0%

4.7%

James McDonald, the pride of Long Beach, has a 2.19 ERA now. Typically when I say "the pride of," I'm being sarcastic, but I guess it's kinda sincere this time.
15

24

46

25.9

26.3

26.8

.367

.349

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Twenty-four humans have thrown a pitch for the Padres this year. You fell asleep in the middle of reading this comment.
16

30

41

33.0

30.6

31.4

.440

.460

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Brendan Ryan is a close second to Felix Hernandez in WARP on the Mariners. He's batting .186/.290/.284. Sure, defense, but come on now.
17

28

41

29.0

27.8

28.2

.410

.390

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Wait, I just realized: Keuchel's name is Dallas?
18

26

42

29.7

26.1

25.1

.393

.374

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Somehow Jeff Francis turned in the best performance so far in the Rockies' new 75-pitch, four-starter world order.
19

34

36

35.2

32.7

33.2

.483

.503

0.4%

0.8%

1.2%

-0.0%

0.8%

Travis Blackley set a career-high in innings pitched in a game with eight (with just 87 pitches, to boot) in beating the Dodgers. Then again, have you seen the LA lineup?
20

24

45

28.3

27.4

27.6

.389

.370

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.0%

The 2007 version of the BP Annual described Bryan LaHair as "big and slow." Five years later, FRAA is expressing grave concern about his defense (-6.6 runs).
21

31

36

30.6

30.0

30.6

.456

.476

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.8%

-0.4%

Bruce Chen (4.81 ERA) needs fewer than six VORP to pass his previous career-high.
22

42

28

40.1

39.8

38.9

.575

.555

46.5%

24.8%

71.3%

-1.2%

-1.6%

The Dodgers had Josh Lindblom and Kenley Jansen warming up in the top of the ninth. Because the game remained tied, the lesser pitcher came in.
23

35

34

37.3

34.6

35.8

.517

.537

0.4%

3.9%

4.3%

-1.6%

-1.2%

Would you rather have Ervin Santana, Henderson Alvarez, or a hamster
24

38

31

36.4

35.8

37.1

.533

.553

10.2%

45.7%

55.9%

-2.4%

0.8%

Joel Peralta did a nice job getting his revenge on Davey Johnson by ... wait, by losing the game? Oh.
25

33

38

35.1

36.8

35.9

.496

.476

3.9%

9.4%

13.4%

-3.5%

0.0%

Every day that Jim Thome does not homer is a sad day in my house. Even the cats mope around a little.
26

40

27

37.8

39.6

38.9

.583

.563

37.0%

23.2%

60.2%

-4.7%

-9.4%

Xavier Nady and I almost went to the same high school. Just FYI.
27

35

35

40.3

41.5

40.0

.560

.540

34.6%

20.9%

55.5%

-5.1%

-13.4%

On the one hand, Jason Motte never got into the game yesterday because the Cardinals were the road team and he's the closer and the game was tied. On the other hand, Jason Motte has a 5.04 FRA. Maybe Mike Matheny secretly knows what he's doing.
28

33

36

27.9

30.6

30.6

.442

.423

2.8%

4.3%

7.1%

-5.5%

-9.4%

Carlos Zambrano should get a special dispensation to bat even in American League–rules games. We need some payoff for a guy who pitches like this, right?
29

39

30

34.9

34.0

35.5

.520

.540

0.8%

14.2%

15.0%

-6.7%

-13.8%

Tommy Hunter isn't walking anyone, at least.
30

36

32

30.8

33.5

34.0

.494

.514

30.3%

3.9%

34.3%

-6.7%

2.0%

Carlos Santana: .232 batting average, mad valuable anyway. He's a good illustration of why walk rate and position and guitar skills matter.

Jason Wojciechowski is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
buffum

I'll take the hamster, Wink.

Jun 22, 2012 12:22 PM
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