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Prospectus Hit List for June 21



by Andrew Koo and Matthew Rocco

Hit List for June 20 Hit List for June 22
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Dodgers' winning percentage without Matt Kemp is better than any National League team's winning percentage.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

43

27

44.4

47.4

46.7

.648

.666

94.5%

4.7%

99.2%

0.0%

0.4%

There are many unusual and improbable events in baseball. The AL's best team sweeping the NL's worst team is not one of them.
2

41

27

39.7

39.7

39.9

.589

.609

74.4%

19.3%

93.7%

-1.2%

1.6%

New York's 10-5 loss to Atlanta was played in a steamy 92 degree volcano known as Yankee Stadium. Last year, games played in House Ruth with the temperature 85 degrees or higher averaged 13.4 runs per game. Summer is coming!
3

38

32

38.5

39.2

39.4

.554

.573

5.1%

63.8%

68.9%

12.6%

-5.5%

Eventually, we will be angry that New Jersey hero, best prospect ever, Gold Glove-, ROY-, and MVP-candidate Mike Trout isn't stealing bases and hitting home runs every single at bat.
4

35

33

37.8

38.8

38.7

.553

.572

7.9%

24.0%

31.9%

0.8%

6.3%

Exactly how Red Sox fans imagined it in December 2010: scoring 15 runs, powered by their superstar outfield consisting of Daniel Nava and Ryan Kalish.
5

36

33

38.0

38.7

38.9

.549

.569

40.6%

5.9%

46.5%

2.0%

-15.0%

The White Sox have eight extra base hits from their assorted third basemen this year. Equally demoralizing, Adam Dunn didn't strike out last night.
6

42

27

39.9

39.6

38.7

.581

.561

54.3%

22.4%

76.8%

-8.7%

3.5%

Matt Kemp has missed more than 30 games so far, but Los Angeles is still 19-13 without him. With Kemp in the lineup, they are 23-13.
7

39

27

36.9

38.9

38.1

.579

.559

39.4%

25.2%

64.6%

3.1%

-11.0%

Washington couldn't produce a hit beyond the first inning, but no worries--Stephen Strasburg struck out 10 to win his sixth straight.
8

38

30

36.2

35.5

36.8

.539

.558

14.2%

46.5%

60.6%

-2.8%

-2.0%

Chris Archer is actually a secret agent brought in undercover to stop evil Bryce Harper from taking over baseball. Mission 1 was unsuccessful. Erm, maybe he's just a pitcher then.
9

35

34

39.9

41.0

39.5

.563

.543

38.2%

21.3%

59.4%

2.4%

1.2%

Yadier Molina has stolen six bases. I wouldn't mind if he ran every time, because "stole more bases than he allowed" would just be so cool. (But he has allowed 20.)
10

39

30

34.9

34.0

35.4

.520

.539

3.1%

17.3%

20.5%

-6.3%

-0.0%

I really don't enjoy watching Brian Matusz give up hit after hit. But someone's got to do it. Sorry, Orioles fans!
11

35

34

37.3

34.6

35.8

.517

.537

0.4%

4.3%

4.7%

-2.8%

2.4%

No Blue Jays starter pitched more than four innings in the Brewers series. Edwin Encarnacion has 20 home runs and the lowest line drive rate in the majors. I couldn't decide on which of these stats to run, so have both!
12

36

32

30.8

33.5

34.0

.494

.514

33.5%

6.7%

40.2%

1.6%

3.1%

Nearly three years ago, the Indians traded Cliff Lee for a prospect quartet. Just one of those prospects, Lou Marson, is on the active roster. And he caught the third game of the Indians' sweep! Yay!
13

38

30

37.4

35.2

34.5

.534

.514

48.8%

16.5%

65.4%

-16.1%

1.2%

Joey Votto has a hit in 24 of the last 25 games, batting .484 with six homers and 17 RBIs in that span.
14

33

35

33.0

33.3

33.5

.488

.508

25.2%

6.3%

31.5%

-4.7%

6.7%

Delmon Young saw just 12 pitches in four at bats. That's how you help Jake Westbrook throw a complete game against your team, Delmon!
15

38

32

35.2

37.2

36.6

.525

.505

30.3%

25.6%

55.9%

-5.1%

-12.2%

Barry Zito's ERA has gone from 2.53 through his first seven starts to 4.35 on the season. And you still should take the over.
16

37

32

36.8

35.4

35.7

.525

.505

38.2%

23.6%

61.8%

7.1%

-0.0%

Jason Heyward's middle name, Adenolith, sounds like something cooler than a middle name. A group of muscles, maybe. A muscle-building drink. A muscle car from the future. Something with muscles. Regardless, it hit two homers Wednesday.
17

34

35

35.6

37.3

37.0

.521

.501

15.4%

19.7%

35.0%

8.7%

6.3%

It had been nearly a month since Justin Upton had homered, and it may be nearly a month still until that homer lands.
18

33

36

34.4

31.9

32.3

.477

.497

0.4%

0.8%

1.2%

-0.0%

0.8%

Tommy Milone scoffs at the Three True Outcomes.
19

38

32

35.3

34.9

35.4

.513

.493

13.4%

14.2%

27.6%

1.2%

9.1%

During their three-game sweep over Baltimore, Mets starting pitchers struck out 27 batters and walked only six.
20

33

37

34.9

36.4

35.6

.500

.480

3.5%

7.1%

10.6%

3.5%

-1.6%

Second baseman Freddy Galvis was handed a 50-game suspension for a trace amount of a banned substance found in a urine sample. But was it shipped for overnight delivery?
21

31

36

30.6

30.0

30.6

.456

.476

0.4%

0.4%

0.8%

0.4%

0.8%

The Royals may have won the series against the Astros, but everyone lost because Tim Collins didn't get to pitch to Jose Altuve.
22

30

41

33.0

30.6

31.4

.440

.460

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ichiro's OBP is .290. Only Brennan Boesch is worse among qualified outfielders.
23

32

37

33.2

33.5

31.8

.473

.453

11.0%

13.8%

24.8%

7.9%

4.7%

Ryan Braun has a hitting streak of 25 games in interleague play. Significant!
24

35

32

31.3

28.6

28.5

.460

.441

2.0%

2.8%

4.7%

-2.0%

0.0%

Jason Grilli failed to strike a batter out for just the third time in 28 outings this year.
25

33

35

27.5

30.6

30.5

.447

.427

5.5%

7.9%

13.4%

-2.0%

-1.2%

Marlins pitchers didn't look all that bad in a 15-5 loss to Boston. They really just made one mistake. Per batter.
26

27

40

25.8

27.3

27.4

.401

.420

0.4%

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

Joe Mauer is entrenched on the Twins for five more years at $23 million per annum, and he trails Josh Willingham and Trevor Plouffe in slugging percentage.
27

28

41

29.0

27.8

28.2

.410

.390

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jed Lowrie (.269/.354/.498, 13 home runs) trails Brandon Crawford (literally has never reached base safely, not even once, I swear) in All-Star voting.
28

24

45

28.3

27.4

27.6

.389

.370

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Until putting together six consecutive scoreless innings against the White Sox, the Cubs' bullpen had registered a 6.42 ERA over the previous 11 games.
29

25

42

28.9

25.5

24.6

.388

.369

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Jim Tracy usually doesn't shake things up too much. His decision to use a four-man rotation with a limit of 75 pitches each start is a bold move.
30

24

46

25.9

26.3

26.8

.368

.349

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The good: Starter Anthony Bass gave up just three hits and one walk, rebounding from an 8.89 ERA in his previous five starts. The bad: Bass left with inflammation in his right shoulder, the first five hitters in San Diego's lineup were hitless. So the bad is pretty much everything important.

Andrew Koo is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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