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Prospectus Hit List for June 18



by Jason Wojciechowski

Hit List for June 15 Hit List for June 19
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Yankees swept the Nationals over the weekend and have now won nine straight. Where do they rank on the Hit List?

RkTmW LW1W2W3HLFAHLFWin Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

42

25

39.6

39.7

38.9

.597

.578

59.4%

22.8%

82.3%

0.4%

5.1%

Elian Herrera's best on-base percentage in a season as a professional was .424 in 36 games in Rookie ball. He's at .407 now. (He plays in the majors.)
2

40

25

38.5

37.7

38.0

.593

.612

77.6%

15.7%

93.3%

-0.4%

8.3%

Derek Jeter is the fifth-best shortstop since 1950 by WARP. Alex Rodriguez would rank sixth on that same list had he retired after 2003 instead of switching to third base.
3

38

26

35.9

38.5

37.7

.586

.567

42.1%

19.7%

61.8%

-0.8%

6.7%

You can't get much worse than 0-7 with five strikeouts, so I guess it's good for Bryce Harper that he got the worst game of his life out of his system in his rookie year.
4

39

27

34.6

33.8

35.0

.539

.559

3.9%

28.7%

32.7%

4.7%

15.7%

Wei-Yin Chen is making three million, 72 thousand dollars this year. I have determined that there is a 2000 Bentley Arnage for sale for $72,000 in Washington, D.C. You really think this is a coincidence?
5

40

27

42.2

45.3

44.7

.642

.660

90.9%

7.5%

98.4%

-0.8%

2.0%

Colby Lewis had good walk rates in 2010 and 2011, but he's gone to a new level this year, ranking eighth in baseball in unintentional walks per plate appearance (30 IP minimum). He's given up more homers than UBBs, though. (Greg Maddux did this twice.)
6

38

27

37.0

35.0

34.4

.555

.535

69.3%

16.1%

85.4%

6.7%

33.1%

FRA doesn't think that Johnny Cueto deserves his ERA, but I'm sure the Reds will take it: 2.36 over the last two years (37 starts, 989 batters faced).
7

37

29

35.2

33.8

35.0

.534

.554

10.6%

45.7%

56.3%

2.4%

-16.9%

The Rays are third in their division and fourth in the American League. So it goes.
8

37

30

35.0

36.8

36.0

.540

.521

33.5%

33.1%

66.5%

0.0%

2.8%

If the Giants and A's played a one-game playoff where the loser had to move to Las Vegas, things would come down to a ninth-inning situation with Matt Cain pitching for San Francisco and Chris Pratt at the plate.
9

36

31

35.7

36.6

36.7

.541

.561

9.1%

60.6%

69.7%

7.9%

1.2%

There's a very good chance that, as you read this, Jerome Williams has not yet given up a baserunner against the Giants.
10

34

31

29.8

27.0

27.3

.454

.434

1.2%

3.1%

4.3%

2.0%

-3.1%

Don't tell anybody, but I'm about to talk about RBI. Pedro Alvarez had as many RBI (6) as he had pitches seen (also 6) in Sunday's game.
11

35

31

36.8

37.3

37.5

.555

.575

46.9%

7.5%

54.3%

0.4%

-2.8%

Tyler Flowers and Adam Dunn saw 51 pitches combined in eight plate appearances. Problem is they struck out in seven of them. Against Chris Capuano.
12

35

31

35.1

34.4

34.5

.526

.506

40.2%

26.8%

66.9%

2.8%

-9.1%

Eric O'Flaherty is from Walla Walla, WA. One can assume that he was born on Ireland Road. (Which does exist, I promise.)
13

35

32

32.7

32.2

32.8

.495

.475

4.3%

7.5%

11.8%

-7.9%

-1.6%

The default "Chris Young" on Wikipedia is a country musician who won "Nashville Star" when he was 21. The Mets' Chris Young is very tall and graduated from Princeton, so he's all "whatevs."
14

33

32

28.4

30.8

31.3

.475

.495

17.7%

5.5%

23.2%

-11.0%

-24.4%

Asdrubal Cabrera made three errors on two plays against the Pirates. Pedro Alvarez followed each play with a three-run homer. Alvarez & Cabrera—the next great comedy duo.
15

34

32

36.3

33.4

34.6

.524

.544

0.8%

5.1%

5.9%

-2.0%

-4.3%

Brett Cecil (4.99 career FRA going into Sunday's game) is back in the big leagues, which is fun for those of us who enjoy left-handed mediocrity.
16

33

33

27.7

30.4

30.1

.459

.439

8.7%

9.8%

18.5%

5.1%

-2.8%

Scott Cousins has a single, a double, and a triple in 11 trips to the plate this year. A "season cycle" is the approximate equivalent of the "career Slam" in tennis, right?
17

34

33

39.0

39.9

38.3

.564

.544

26.8%

25.6%

52.4%

-4.7%

-4.7%

Apparently the Central divisions had a real thing for 15 yesterday, as the Brewers-Twins and Royals-Cardinals games both went that number of innings. The main difference is that Eduardo Sanchez gave up the final go-ahead homer to Yuniesky Betancourt in only one of them.
18

33

33

35.7

37.1

37.2

.541

.561

7.1%

20.9%

28.0%

-7.5%

5.1%

A list of teammates with a better True Average than Dustin Pedroia this year, in order from least to greatest embarrassment: David Ortiz, Will Middlebrooks, Cody Ross, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Kelly Shoppach, Daniel Nava, Scott Podsednik.
19

32

34

33.3

34.6

34.8

.510

.490

7.1%

18.9%

26.0%

0.0%

-4.3%

Paul Goldschmidt's stolen-base total is equal to Justin Upton's caught-stealing figure. That number is not zero.
20

32

34

31.9

32.3

32.3

.487

.507

35.4%

2.8%

38.2%

6.3%

16.9%

Quintin Berry knocked five hits and stole his ninth base in just 22 games. This is a 27-year-old rookie, in case you forgot already.
21

29

35

29.0

29.2

29.8

.457

.477

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Chris Getz: Psychic. He felt a 15-inning game coming and left in the first with an "ankle injury." Suuuure.
22

30

36

31.1

31.7

30.2

.466

.446

2.8%

11.8%

14.6%

-4.7%

-15.4%

The Brewers and Twins suffered through a 42-minute rain delay in the 11th inning on Sunday, then came back and played four more frames. Meanwhile, I got pretty worn out doing the Sunday grocery shopping. (I go to four stores! It's hard!)
23

31

36

32.7

29.8

30.0

.461

.481

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

I don't know for sure that Jonny Gomes' two infield singles on Sunday were the first two of his career, but I feel like the odds are pretty good.
24

31

37

33.2

34.8

34.1

.490

.470

4.7%

4.7%

9.4%

1.2%

-6.3%

Eighteen is a lucky number in some religions, which explains why the Phillies' top four hitters on Sunday, Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, Hunter Pence, and JI-- JIM THOME, each saw 18 pitches in the game.
25

29

39

32.2

30.2

30.8

.449

.469

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I lived in Seattle when I was a tiny baby. I'll give you a hint about when this was: The Mariners were a pretty bad team. That narrows it down, right?
26

26

39

25.2

26.8

26.8

.403

.422

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

The Twins managed one extra-base hit (a double) in 15 innings on Sunday. If you have to go looking for reasons why they have the worst record in the American League, well, I saved you some time.
27

27

39

27.6

25.7

26.5

.405

.385

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The 2012 Baseball Prospectus annual says that Dallas Keuchel should keep outperforming his peripherals. Major-league debut: five innings, four walks, two strikeouts, one run. You can make your checks out to Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.
28

25

40

28.5

25.1

24.2

.395

.376

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

The Rockies have lost 10 of 11, with their only win being an eight-run victory over the Tigers. In extra innings. You probably don't believe me. I wish I had a way to prove it.
29

24

43

25.2

25.4

25.6

.374

.355

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Ross Ohlendorf bounced from the Red Sox to the Padres a few weeks ago. Is signing smart guys so they'll work for your front office when they retire the new thing?
30

22

44

26.5

25.9

26.1

.381

.362

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I wish the Cubs were better.

Jason Wojciechowski is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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6 comments have been left for this article.
OonBoon

Thanks for the Eric O'Flaherty triva
-#dudes who live in Walla Walla, WA

Jun 18, 2012 08:32 AM
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Drakos

I think the Ohlendorf signing was more of an "oh crap we're going to need starting pitcher #12 soon" strategy. I'm also not sure if misspelling his name on the lineup card is a good way of convincing him to join the front office.

Jun 18, 2012 09:06 AM
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BP staff member Jason Wojciechowski

Haha, did they do that? I missed it.

Jun 18, 2012 10:38 AM
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Wyomissing

Anyone who has followed Jonny Gomes' career knows he's one of the most intense players in baseball. I've been to just a handful of Reds' games, but it seems like I've seen Gomes beat out an infield hit in 1/2 of them. He's a true "maximum effort" player.

Jun 18, 2012 10:34 AM
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BP staff member Jason Wojciechowski

This is true. It was just a reference to the fact that he's built like a tank.

Although now that I think about it, tanks can get going pretty fast, too.

Jun 18, 2012 10:40 AM
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Lou Doench

Which Elder God do we need to sacrifice a utility infielder to to pass the Cardinals on this list?

Signed, Nervous Reds Fan.

Jun 18, 2012 14:06 PM
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