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Prospectus Hit List for June 13



by Jason Wojciechowski

Hit List for June 12 Hit List for June 14
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

In which the eternal LOLyals vs. RoyLOLs debate is addressed.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLF Win Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

25

35

23.8

25.6

25.4

.416

.435

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.0%

Nick Blackburn lowered his season ERA from 7.75 to 7.68. And got a "win."
2

27

35

28.1

25.2

26.0

.429

.449

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.0%

Ryan Cook's first career save was a three-run number against one of the few teams with a worse record than the A's. He can leave that part out when he tells his grandkids, and focus on how he struck out Carlos Gonzalez.
3

25

34

26.3

26.6

26.8

.444

.464

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.0%

Sure, it happens to everybody sometimes, but it's a lot more fun to point and call them the RoyLOLs when Ryan Braun hits a grounder to Mike Moustakas and winds up at third base after two throwing errors on the same play.
4

26

35

27.3

25.7

26.3

.432

.412

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros have been surprisingly bad (as in: it's a surprise they're not horrendous), but they could be a lot worse if Bud Norris misses time with his knee injury.
5

24

36

26.7

23.7

22.9

.406

.386

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

-0.8%

Turns out that Jeremy Guthrie isn't a great fit for Colorado. Mainly because Colorado is a major-league team.
6

27

36

30.1

28.5

29.1

.455

.475

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

Some would call scoring three times in the bottom of the ninth when down by four heroic and valiant. I call it "the Seattle Mariners."
7

21

40

24.8

25.1

25.1

.394

.375

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

Tony Campana stole three bases last night, giving him 21 on the season. Around my house, this is known as zero-point-three Billy Hamiltons.
8

21

41

23.2

23.7

24.1

.371

.353

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

Cameron Maybin is like Austin Jackson (eight pitches in four plate apperances last night) except that Maybin averages a pitch every two trips less than Jackson. It's not like he's turning that hackery into power, either.
9

32

28

27.6

24.9

24.9

.456

.436

0.8%

2.0%

2.8%

-1.2%

0.4%

I have a friend who's been asking people, "Are you feeling ok?" "Yes, why?" "Well, you know, Pirates Fever is going around. Just wanted to check." Now that they're not in first place anymore, maybe he'll stop this.
10

31

31

33.9

31.4

32.4

.519

.539

0.8%

4.7%

5.5%

-1.2%

-8.3%

Brett Lawrie's ripped pants and what lies beneath them got a lot of attention on Twitter, but don't lose sight of his sixth caught-stealing on the year in 14 attempts. Lawrie stole at a sub-70-percent clip in the minors, too. Slowing his roll a bit could be advisable.
11

33

29

30.0

29.1

29.4

.490

.470

2.8%

7.1%

9.8%

-1.6%

-10.2%

Searching a game log for Jason Bay plate appearances is really annoying when the Mets are playing against Tampa Bay. Interleague play is stupid.
12

35

26

30.3

29.8

31.1

.517

.537

3.5%

17.3%

20.9%

5.9%

9.4%

The odds that Brian Roberts continues to bat .750 are really low. Like 3:1 or something. (I don't understand gambling.)
13

29

34

31.0

31.8

31.3

.488

.468

4.7%

7.5%

12.2%

-2.0%

-9.4%

I've never been convinced that Kyle Kendrick isn't a race-car driver. Giving up six runs in four innings to the Twins won't help him change my mind.
14

30

32

32.8

33.9

34.1

.528

.547

6.3%

20.5%

26.8%

3.1%

-16.1%

Clay Buchholz now has four straight starts with seven-plus innings and two-minus runs. Why don't people say that? "Two-minus." I say we start doing it.
15

33

30

33.7

33.9

33.8

.533

.553

9.1%

49.2%

58.3%

-10.2%

3.5%

Albert Pujols got his second start of the year at third base, each time in a National League park so Mike Scioscia could get Kendry Morales' bat in the lineup. The problem this time around is that Jerome Williams had more total bases than Morales.
16

30

31

30.0

31.4

31.3

.503

.483

9.4%

16.1%

25.6%

-11.4%

4.3%

The A's beat up the Rangers and the Diamondbacks beat up the A's, so obviously the Rangers beat Arizona 9-1.
17

32

30

28.0

30.4

30.2

.487

.467

13.0%

19.3%

32.3%

6.7%

-18.9%

If Mark Buehrle threw another 11 years like the first 11 of his career, he'd end up eighth in PWARP since 1950, just ahead of Tom Glavine. And if he adds just half of the value he's already accumulated, he'll wind up right near Don Drysdale.
18

28

33

28.3

28.3

27.2

.458

.438

13.4%

8.3%

21.7%

-5.9%

-1.6%

If you regress Zack Greinke's neck to the mean, he'd be under six feet tall, and then I bet he wouldn't have been the no. 6 overall pick in 2002. Just goes to show you.
19

28

33

28.7

28.2

28.7

.466

.486

13.8%

10.2%

24.0%

-0.0%

4.7%

Austin Jackson would rank just outside the top 10 in pitches seen per plate appearance if he qualified for the batting title. Nine pitches seen in four trips to the plate, Tuesday's line, did not improve that average.
20

35

26

32.5

31.6

32.8

.540

.560

18.9%

46.9%

65.7%

0.8%

8.7%

Hideki Matsui singled and walked, validating Joe Maddon's "birthday theory." The problem is that he's 38 now and he won't have another birthday for a good long while.
21

35

27

31.9

32.5

31.9

.530

.510

29.9%

33.9%

63.8%

8.3%

7.1%

Madison Bumgarner had 12 strikeouts, no walks, and one homer. One homer hit, that is. For his career, he's giving up a homer for every 51 batters faced and hitting one every 154 PAs.
22

32

28

27.7

29.9

30.5

.501

.521

31.5%

16.9%

48.4%

0.4%

-3.9%

"What are you doing this week, son?" "Battling for supremacy of Ohio against that Commie team from Cincy. Mowing the lawn, maybe."
23

37

23

34.6

37.3

36.3

.605

.586

39.8%

30.7%

70.5%

7.9%

28.0%

Talking about a "Bryce Harper--Brett Lawrie" matchup is inane because this is baseball. Batters face pitchers, not each other. Still: Harper won the matchup with a homer, two singles, and a team victory.
24

34

28

33.7

31.9

32.0

.531

.511

39.8%

26.0%

65.7%

-3.1%

5.1%

Mike Minor has been terrible this year, and Jonny Venters has been good, so of course Minor threw 7 1/3 good innings against the Yankees and let Venters blow it by giving up a grand slam to Alex Rodriguez. Damn you Baseba'al!
25

31

31

36.1

37.1

35.6

.564

.544

41.3%

19.3%

60.6%

-1.2%

-5.9%

Marc Rzepczynski did not face A.J. Pierzynski last night, but they have squared off twice before, resulting in a strikeout and a double play. Earl Weaver would put that down on an index card.
26

33

27

32.5

30.8

30.3

.527

.507

44.5%

13.4%

57.9%

4.7%

-1.2%

Joey Votto doesn't believe in weak-ass hitting streaks. His 15-gamer that ended on Sunday resulted in a .547/.597/.887 line. He still hasn't hit a pop-up since 1989.
27

34

27

34.6

35.5

35.5

.572

.592

54.7%

9.8%

64.6%

6.3%

-1.6%

Adam Dunn has two starts in left field this year, both in National League parks. Some argue that the DH ruins the integrity of the game. I'd say that Adam Dunn in the outfield ruins the integrity of my brain.
28

40

23

37.5

37.7

36.9

.604

.585

60.6%

16.1%

76.8%

-1.6%

3.9%

Dee Gordon has 20 steals despite a .284 on-base percentage. It helps that 44 of his 53 hits have been singles. Helps him, I mean. Not his team. Not even close.
29

36

25

35.3

35.2

35.0

.580

.599

70.5%

15.4%

85.8%

-4.7%

2.8%

Since 2006, Nick Swisher has just one season with less than 3.3 WARP. He'll have to pick up the pace (and his OBP) to reach that mark this year, but he's well on his way to a total career value in the Moises Alou range. Moneybaaaaaaall!
30

36

26

38.9

42.3

41.8

.641

.659

90.9%

8.7%

99.6%

0.4%

0.4%

Yorvit Torrealba has a six-game streak of exactly one hit in each game. I dare you to express surprise at his overall batting line during his hitting streak.

Jason Wojciechowski is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here


5 comments have been left for this article.
outdoorminer

Jason has been *killing* this week. Great job, sir.

Jun 13, 2012 07:22 AM
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BP staff member Jason Wojciechowski

Thanks! I'm excited for Matt to come back, though. He's the king. I'm just [omits Game of Thrones joke].

Jun 13, 2012 10:39 AM
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TimLandry

I must admit that there is nothing - on the web or off it - that compares to the sheer joy of reading this. It combines information and fun in a perfect recipe. It is the best part of my day

Jun 13, 2012 10:42 AM
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NYYanks826

The hit+two-error debacle that allowed Ryan Braun to get to third also served to break up a no-hitter in the sixth inning. Because the Royals.

Jun 13, 2012 12:06 PM
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NYYanks826

The hit+two-error debacle that allowed Ryan Braun to get to third also served to break up a no-hitter in the sixth inning. Because the Royals.

Jun 13, 2012 12:07 PM
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0

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