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Prospectus Hit List for June 7



by Matthew Kory

Hit List for June 6 Hit List for June 8
Hit List updates are published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting April 2, 2014. Data presented here is based on games through the day prior to publication.
Teams are ordered based on Adjusted Hit List Factor, a computer generated number, and the author isn't responsible for the order of the teams.

The Baltimore LOLiLOLs are still playing like the Baltimore WHOArioles.

RkTmWLW1W2W3HLFAHLF Win Div%Win WC%Playoff%1-Day7-Day
1

33

24

35.4

37.9

37.3

.630

.648

92.9%

5.5%

98.4%

-0.4%

-0.4%

Hey, remember when the Rangers were the best team ever? I do. It was like three weeks ago.
2

31

24

31.0

30.6

30.2

.558

.578

63.0%

20.9%

83.9%

0.8%

15.0%

Raul Ibanez is hitting .289/.349/.618 at home, with seven of his nine homers coming in the Bronx. Getting him out of Yankee Stadium is going to be like getting a cat off your computer while you're trying to write the Yankees comment on the Hit List at 2 a.m.
3

36

21

32.6

34.1

33.5

.597

.578

58.3%

15.0%

73.2%

3.1%

0.0%

How are the Dodgers winning with a first baseman who is hitting .253/.328/.365? Funny thing, that's not the worst team production at first base by a long shot. Six teams are worse. (None are in first place, though.)
4

31

25

31.4

32.2

32.3

.567

.586

52.4%

10.2%

62.6%

-10.6%

-13.4%

ADAM DUNN DIDN'T STRIKEOUT!
5

31

24

29.5

27.0

27.0

.521

.501

49.2%

21.3%

70.5%

7.5%

13.8%

Joey Votto went 1-for-4 and his one hit wasn't an extra-base hit. Weird.
6

31

25

31.0

29.6

29.6

.541

.521

46.1%

27.6%

73.6%

7.9%

11.0%

Last night's win was just the third start of 11 in which Randall Delgado has given up fewer than three walks. Not surprisingly, he has a 2.50 ERA in those starts.
7

29

28

33.4

34.1

32.9

.567

.548

39.0%

18.9%

57.9%

-11.4%

-18.9%

In his last 10 games, Carlos Beltran is hitting .200 with one homer. Should've signed Alb... oh, never mind.
8

30

25

25.6

27.7

27.9

.505

.525

33.9%

18.5%

52.4%

11.8%

11.0%

The DH was conceived to inject more offense into the game. Matt LaPorta and his .187 batting average are the Indians' contribution to this goal. The Indians are missing the point.
9

32

25

29.3

30.9

30.3

.537

.517

31.1%

20.9%

52.0%

-2.8%

5.5%

Tim Lincecum has a 7.98 ERA on the road. Bad luck? Dislikes hotel pudding? Misses his cat, Derp? Who knows!
10

31

25

27.2

28.3

28.3

.512

.492

22.8%

29.1%

52.0%

-2.4%

-1.6%

BEEP BEEP BEEP! Oh, sorry, that's just my Ozzie Guillen Is Crazy alarm. We're due for ol' Ozzie to insult Bud Selig's cankles, Marlins fans and their Metamucil, or the poodle predilection of the owner's wife any second now.
11

32

22

30.5

34.0

33.0

.600

.580

21.7%

21.7%

43.3%

0.4%

0.0%

Bryce Harper not only leads the Nationals in SLG (slugging percentage), he leads the team in SCPA (shaving cream pies applied), ABP (approving butt pats), and CWG (coaching winks generated).
12

31

25

28.9

28.2

29.3

.524

.544

16.1%

38.6%

54.7%

2.0%

-2.8%

Ben Zobrist is cultivating his own thing: the hits-badly-every-third-year thing. So if you draft Zobrist in 2015 don't say I didn't warn you.
13

25

31

26.0

26.2

26.4

.462

.482

13.8%

9.8%

23.6%

0.8%

-4.3%

The Tigers are last in the AL in defensive efficiency. Maybe moving Miguel Cabrera to shortstop would... too soon? OK, sorry.
14

28

28

29.8

30.3

30.3

.529

.549

13.0%

22.8%

35.8%

-9.8%

-20.1%

The Boston Red Sox have 142 doubles, 26 more than second-place Kansas City. They're on pace to hit 86 more doubles than the team that led baseball in doubles last year, the Boston Red Sox.
15

25

31

25.6

25.8

25.3

.454

.434

11.4%

9.1%

20.5%

0.4%

-5.1%

Going into last night's game, Zack Greinke had never lost at Miller Park. The Cubs were an unlikely opponent to break that streak. And they didn't. Sometimes baseball is predictable.
16

27

30

28.1

29.9

30.0

.504

.484

10.6%

15.4%

26.0%

8.7%

5.5%

Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick apologized for verbally attacking Stephen Drew and Justin Upton. Said Kendrick, "It was inappropriate for me to call out those two shiftless loafers. I sincerely apologize to them, and to their call girls and/or wives, and I hope that when they wake up from their weed comas they'll accept my apology."
17

29

29

29.9

30.6

30.3

.516

.536

7.1%

44.1%

51.2%

-2.4%

-0.8%

Albert Pujols currently has the lowest walk rate of his career and the most walks of any Angels hitter.
18

28

30

29.4

30.1

29.9

.506

.486

5.5%

9.1%

14.6%

-5.1%

-16.5%

Placido Polanco, Freddy Galvis, and Carlos Ruiz have three of the 21 worst walk rates in baseball. Therefore, Polanco + Galvis + Ruiz = David Ortiz
19

32

24

28.3

27.8

28.7

.522

.542

5.1%

19.3%

24.4%

5.9%

11.4%

The Orioles are 10-5 in one-run games and have outperformed their expected record. This is due to: 1) Buck Showalter's steely-eyed council and cave-aged wisdom, 2) their new old cartoon bird hats, or 3) Dan Duquette's multi-chinned genius.
20

31

26

27.5

26.9

27.1

.493

.473

3.9%

9.1%

13.0%

-5.5%

5.5%

The 2012 Mets: the inspiring story of a team that wasn't really that good and was revealed to be so later in the season to the disappointment and anger of its fan base.
21

30

26

31.1

29.3

29.8

.536

.556

2.8%

9.1%

11.8%

2.8%

3.5%

Every once in a long time you go to a Chinese restaurant and when they bring the check you get your fortune cookie. You open it and it has two fortunes in it. Those are the days to rush home and get Brandon Morrow into your fantasy lineup.
22

28

27

24.6

23.0

23.2

.449

.429

0.4%

2.8%

3.1%

0.4%

1.6%

By OPS+, the PIrates' second-best hitter is Rod Barajas. Rod Barajas is hitting .234/.299/.403.
23

19

37

22.5

23.2

23.6

.394

.375

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

Starlin Castro's walk rate, 2010 to present: 5.7 percent, 4.9 percent, 2.5 percent. Castro is set to achieve baseball's first negative walk rate in 2014.
24

24

32

26.1

22.2

21.7

.420

.400

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

-0.8%

-0.4%

Josh Outman has an 8.18 ERA. And they cut, Jamie Moyer whose ERA was two runs less. Now, you know he'll make them pay by pitching another 10 years.
25

24

32

26.5

25.2

25.6

.453

.433

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Astros were 18-12 at home and 6-19 on the road, 9-9 in one-run games, and 3-1 against St. Louis. So of course they lost a one-run game at home to St. Louis. Gotta confound expectations.
26

24

31

24.8

24.7

24.8

.446

.466

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.0%

When you look at Bryce Harper you tend to lose perspective on how hard hitting major-league pitching is. Here's your wake-up call: super prospect Eric Hosmer is hitting .220/.281/.376.
27

26

33

29.3

27.0

27.1

.463

.483

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

-1.2%

0.4%

It's hard to make mean jokes about the Mariners offense when over the last eight games, they've scored 64 runs.
28

19

38

21.2

21.8

22.5

.371

.352

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.0%

The Padres have two guys hitting over .256 in their lineup so of course one of them, Logan Forsythe, who is hitting .625, made the crucial error to let two runs score and lose the game. Padres baseball: Slogans Probably Won't Help!
29

25

32

25.3

22.0

22.6

.416

.436

0.0%

0.8%

0.8%

0.8%

0.4%

When the A's give up three runs, they have a .500 record. When they give up four they win at a .364 clip. Give up five and they win about one of 10 and if they give up six, well, just start grabbing everything not nailed down.
30

22

34

20.9

22.1

21.9

.388

.407

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

The Twins started a third baseman with a .282 slugging percentage. What else is there to say? Oh, they won.

Matthew Kory is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Matthew's other articles. You can contact Matthew by clicking here


1 comment has been left for this article.
R.A.Wagman

About that Adam Dunn strikeout - it looked tight last night. He was on two strikes against a smoldering Brandon Morrow, fouled off another pitch and then drew the walk on some relatively close pitches.
Also - I find it interesting that the system would give the Orioles more than double the playoff odds of Toronto, in spite of their relative projections heading into the season and the Orioles being only two games in front of them now and several spots back in the Hit List.

Jun 07, 2012 06:43 AM
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